locusts & systems rain, temperature, wind solutions & challenges locusts & systems rain, temperature, wind solutions & challenges Meteorological information for locust control operations Keith Cressman Locust Forecasting Officer 19 April 2005 Keith Cressman Locust Forecasting Officer 19 April 2005

Desert Locust countries 2 / 14 Invasion area = 32 million km 2 (20% of world land mass) 25 key (front-line) countries Invasion area = 32 million km 2 (20% of world land mass) 25 key (front-line) countries summer winter spring Recession area = 16 million km 2

Desert Locust biology 3 / 14 summer (W Africa) 25d 14d 30 days (2-3 months: July-Nov) spring (NW Africa) 150 days 35 days 35 days (2.5-7 months: Oct-Mar / Apr-Jun) summer (W Africa) 25d 14d 30 days (2-3 months: July-Nov) spring (NW Africa) 150 days 35 days 35 days (2.5-7 months: Oct-Mar / Apr-Jun) adults invade egg hopper a e h

Grouping & concentration = increasing threat Grouping & concentration = increasing threat transiens Individual locusts = no threat Individual locusts = no threat solitarious Desert Locust phase change 4 / 14 gregarious hopper bands & swarms (gregarious) = THREAT!

Desert Locust migration 5 / 14 recessions: Sahel (summer) Outbreaks/upsurges/plagues: Sahel (summer) + NWA (spring) recessions: Sahel (summer) Outbreaks/upsurges/plagues: Sahel (summer) + NWA (spring) summer winter spring

Desert Locust programmes 6 / 14 National (Locust Control Centres) Outputs assess situation forecasts (short) plan surveys and control ops field data 10-day sit reps monthly bulletins Regional (FAO Commissions) national strengthening International (FAO HQ) assess situation forecast (6 weeks – 6 months) advise NLCCs / donors monthly bulletins interim updates warnings

Desert Locust information flow 7 / 14 International - National - Field - International - National - Field - FAO Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) Locust Control Centre survey and control teams FAO Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) Locust Control Centre survey and control teams ( RAMSES data files, reports ) ( forms, eLocust data files )

Direct two-way communication National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS Direct two-way communication National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS Desert Locust network 8 / 14 FAO DLIS

Weather data and Desert Locusts 9 / 14 DataActualForecastUse Rainfalltotal daily decadal monthly +1 day +10 day +30 day seasonal breeding migration planning Temperaturemin/max daily decadal monthly +1 day +10 day +30 day seasonal maturation migration planning Winddirection speed height 12 hmigration

Weather thresholds 10 / 14 > 25 mm in two consecutive months unusual events > 20°C (egg & hopper development) > 20°C (take-off) > 18°C (sustained flight) < 10 m/s (take-off) m (migration heights) > 25 mm in two consecutive months unusual events > 20°C (egg & hopper development) > 20°C (take-off) > 18°C (sustained flight) < 10 m/s (take-off) m (migration heights) Rain Temp Wind

Tools available to NLCCs 11 / 14 rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites SPOT vegetation imagery RAMSES GIS rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites SPOT vegetation imagery RAMSES GIS

Primary rainfall stations (GTS) Senegal Mauritania Mali Niger Chad Burkina Faso Algeria Tunisia Morocco 7 rainfall stations in 1.1 million km 2 12 / 14 summer breeding area Tamanrassett Agadez B.B. Mokhtar Menaka Gao Tessalit Kidal 1300 km 900 km

Current weaknesses 13 / 14 poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not make use of data FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products weak NLCC / NMHS link poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not make use of data FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products weak NLCC / NMHS link  increase rains stations?  reduce transmission errors?  indicate data requirements?  use forecast products?  regional workshop  increase rains stations?  reduce transmission errors?  indicate data requirements?  use forecast products?  regional workshop Potential solutions poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not make use of data FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products weak NLCC / NMHS link poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not make use of data FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products weak NLCC / NMHS link

This week’s challenges …  improve NMHS support to NLCCs  provide useful weather data  improve weather forecasts  improve NMHS support to NLCCs  provide useful weather data  improve weather forecasts Keith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting Officer