Is Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) An All or None Deal? Dr. Russ Johnson, Jonah President, Improvement Quest, Inc. Loveland, CO 80538 970-581-0075 Improvementquest@aol.com Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO What is a project? A temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product or service (PMI-BOK 1996) Consists of three major efforts: Planning Execution Management Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO What is project management? The application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities in order to meet or exceed stakeholder needs and expectations. (PMI -BOK, 1996) A balancing act between the three project commitments Scope Time Budget Common elements A scheduling mechanism (software and rules) Existing management paradigms Human behavior Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Project characteristics All projects have many things in common: They involve high uncertainty. They involve three different and perceptually opposing commitments: Due date, budget, and content They require different levels of a variety of expertise and resources at different times and for different amounts of time They are impacted by variability within and between events Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Establishing some current reality Do we go back to resources and pressure them to reduce their time and/or cost estimates? Do we hold resources to the scheduled start and finish dates for activities? Do we sometimes miss entire activities or at least dependencies in the planning stages of the project? Do our projects quickly evolve to having multiple critical paths? Do our projects seem to always be behind? Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Are these are fairly typical? Existing project work is not complete before new projects require a shifting in priorities. The organization is too slow responding to important opportunities. Management feels constant pressure to increase resources to handle peak project loads. Promised lead times are longer than desired. There are difficulties completing projects on time. There is too much rework activity.

Are these are fairly typical? There are difficulties completing projects within budget. Project scope/content is too often compromised to meet dates and/or budget. Some projects are abandoned or completed without the organization gaining the promised benefit. Project Managers and resource managers have frequent conflicts about priorities and resource commitments. Problems in one part of a project cascade into other parts of the project and/or into other projects.

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO If … Our reputation is important to us, and Our past experience has been a mixed bag that has often left our customers less than elated with our performance and shaken their confidence in us, and We need to be able to communicate status to a variety of people and be able to quickly and accurately predict the impact of change and resource availability and assignment issues, and Conditions and expectations today are fundamentally different than they were when the current formal project management approach was developed, Resources are scarce and heavily shared We are moving from competitive bid to design-build and negotiated contracts It is becoming more and more critical that we collaborate rather than combat Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO Then… Do we need to approach project management differently in terms of a formal planning, execution and monitoring/reporting process? Is there an alternative to the primary formal project management style or methodology we use today? If so, do we have the knowledge and experience we would need relative to these alternatives to be able to determine which one would be best for our needs and situation? Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

A formal project management tool should Help us with: Planning the project Executing the plan Managing the process Set us up for success in both the current projects and future projects Facilitate collaborative efforts and picking the best partners Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Even more fundamentally, the system we put in place should … Improve flow (order to cash in hand cycle time) as the primary objective Be translatable into practical mechanisms that guides the operation when not to produce Enable the need to abolish local efficiencies Include a focusing process to balance flow Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO Two basic approaches Traditional – two names same basic concepts PERT (Program Evaluation & Review Technique) CPM (Critical Path Method) Contemporary Critical Chain Lets examine the traditional Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO Traditional PERT/CPM Developed in parallel in the 1950’s Needed a way to organize highly complex project (Polaris Missile) Money and resources were not a problem Many modifications over the years to try to accommodate the fact that money and resources are now a big issue Constantly increasing sophistication of software and hardware has perpetuated the idea that problems with the process can be solved if we can just get enough data and process it fast enough Tremendous inertia (50 years of common practice) and investment causes considerable resistance to different approaches Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Install Sprinkler System Typical Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Spring home repair Paint Inside Replace Roof Landscape Yard Move Furniture Cover Floors Mask Windows Paint Remove Dead Tree Plant Shrubs Install Sprinkler System Select Paint Mix Paint Apply Paint Activity to schedule Summary activity

How a project looks graphically Network (PERT View) Bar Chart (Gantt View) What do all of these things represent?

Traditional (PERT/CPM) Mechanisms for building the schedule Assumption of infinite resource availability before identifying the Critical Path Initial Critical Path equals longest sequence of task and path dependencies exclusive of resource dependencies Projected Lead Time

Traditional (PERT/CPM) Resolving contentions (the real CP) Assumption of infinite resource availability before identifying the critical path Resolving resource contentions from start of project to completion giving priority to Critical Path tasks Increase in Projected Lead Time with resource contentions resolved Projected Lead Time

Assumptions that variation in task times follow a normal distribution 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% Total series variation = square root of the sum of the variances squared +/-2 +/-2 +/-5 +/-2 +/-2 +/-2 10 50 Reality: the potential impact of bad things is much greater than the potential impact of good 7 10 13 25 10% 50% 90% 90%

What happens in each situation if a task is finished late? or early ? 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% +/-5 +/-2 +/-2 +/-2 +/-2 +/-2 10 10 10 10 10 50 What happens in each situation if a task is finished late? or early ? 10

Assumptions that variations of actual task times will cancel each other out 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% -2/+? -2/+? -2/+? -2/+? -2/+? -5/+? 10 10 10 10 10 50 ? ? 52 Late 10 10 12 10 10 Early/late 48 6 10 12 10 10 52 6 10 12 10 10 No report

Assumptions that variations of actual task times will cancel each other out Total path/integration variation = Probability of event 1 * Probability of event 2 * Probability of event 3 * Probability of event 4 10 Probability of orange integration task starting on time if all four feeding task time estimates are 90% is 66% (.9*.9*.9*.9) 10 10 10 10

No consistent method for determining when tasks with float should start Do we start these * tasks as soon as possible (ASAP), as late as possible (ALAP), or somewhere in between? * * * * * Float Critical Path

Today with schedule updated for future No mechanism for decoupling the overall project from individual task and path variations Today with schedule updated for future

Traditional (PERT/CPM) Managing the schedule Panic sets in with the first late task Focus switches from the global perspective of the original project goals to a more local perspective of task completion At the task level, the focus switches from content, dependencies, and durations to start and end dates We hold resources to the original schedule dates in place of the necessary conditions that define what is needed to start a task and the deliverables that define when a task is finished Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Traditional Project control No reliable mechanisms to determine when a project is in trouble or to determine which activities can afford to wait awhile - No Visibility of the Impact of Decisions or Variability! Importance is placed on achieving task or milestone conformance to scheduled start and completion dates rather than deliverables in an effort to insure or improve project on time performance. When faced with conflicting task priorities and no clear way to determine how much safety remains in each task, resources and Resource Managers multi-task to try to minimize the harm to either task.

How does this fit with our fundamental needs of the system? Improve flow (order to cash in hand cycle time) as the primary objective Be translatable into practical mechanisms that guide the operation when not to produce Enable the need to abolish local efficiencies Include a focusing process to balance flow Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO Contemporary Critical Chain Developed in the early 1990’s Utilized the Thought Process tools of the Theory of Constraints to analyze the situation and test the solution Started from scratch taking into account current realities of limited resources, money and time. Focused not only on the mechanical/software aspects of organizing the project but also looked heavily at the psychological and human behavioral issues of projects This includes the negative behaviors of years of experience and; The desired behaviors Used aspects of traditional approaches where applicable Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

TOC’s View of Project Management Improving flow: Minimize bad multi-tasking both within and between projects Multi-project environment – Freeze about 25% of the projects to switch focus to finishing work rather than starting Individual projects Plan project from a necessity point of view – starting with desired outcome and working to beginning (Handoff) Separate safety from task time to get an aggressive but possible time to create a sense of urgency Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

TOC’s View of Project Management When not to work: Aggregate ½ of the freed safety to create buffers Buffers correctly set tasks to the as late as possible position while still protecting the project due date form 95% of the uncertainty Relative status of buffers tells which task a resource should work on when there is more than one open task for that resource – this minimizes bad multi-tasking Full Kit concept delays start of task until all necessary inputs are available to minimize ineffective workarounds Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

TOC’s View of Project Management Abolish local efficiencies : Focus is on completing work as fast and accurately as possible and getting it handed off What constitutes “done” is clearly defined so that tasks can’t be drawn out to fill available time (Parkinson’s law and 3 minute egg rule) The only dates that are important are necessary milestones and the project completion promise – focus is on content not dates Review progress by asking how long to finish not what percent is complete Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

TOC’s View of Project Management Focusing process to balance flow Buffer Management: Buffer status (Green, Yellow, Red) directs management as to when, and how, to react to individual disruptions to flow Causes for delays that result in buffer consumption are recorded and analyzed to target common offender disruptions to flow. (Pareto) This can be process/activity focused and/or resource focused Lean, Six-Sigma and other process improvement tools are utilized to systematically and continuously improve flow Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Flow killers The assumption that the earlier we start a project/task, the earlier it will be finished How we estimate durations bad multi-tasking Missing tasks and/or dependencies in the planning stage

Multi-project fast lane Tactic – Freeze 25% of open projects Level of Management involvement Rate of completion Safe Zone X Number of open projects or tasks

What is estimated task time really composed of? Productive work time Nonproductive time Safety (insurance against uncertainty)

10 50 ? ? As risk or non-valid accountability increases so will safety 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% +/-2 +/-2 +/-5 +/-2 +/-2 +/-2 10 50 As risk or non-valid accountability increases so will safety Duration 7 10 13 45 Probability 10% 50% 90% 90% ? ?

The Sixes Game You work in my organization You are rewarded according to your performance versus a standard The standard is the maximum number of rolls it should take to get a 6 Your performance is based on your roll of the dice You will be measured on the number of rolls it actually takes you to get a 6

How we waste safety Parkinson’s law - Work expands to fill the time available (poor definition of DONE) Three minute egg rule - There is an implication of poor quality if done too soon as well as changed expectations regarding future estimates Student syndrome – Argue for extension of time estimate for all kinds of reasons then, Why do today what you can put off to tomorrow Multi-tasking - Increases lead time for any individual activity as there is unplanned time spent starting and stopping

Understanding the problem further Task completion times The time to complete each task consists of: • the time to perform the task, • the time to set up to work on the task (finding everything and remembering where you left off) again and again. • the time to shut down or set down time. • the time the task had to wait for the resource while the resource worked on other tasks.

Multi-tasking A A A A A A A A B B B B B B B B C C C C C C C How work was planned C How work was performed Actual resource time

The multi-tasking Game Our job is to complete three tasks: Write a column of numbers from 1-26 Write the letters of the alphabet from A to Z Draw a repeating sequence of Square, circle, triangle until you have 26 objects You must alternate columns as you complete your task (number, letter, shape) We will time to see how long it takes 1 A 2 B 3 C 4 D 5 E 6 F 7 G 8 H

Is the buffer time already in the estimate? Have we validated that uncertainty exists and that we need to protect ourselves from it? Have we discovered that everyone protects themselves by adding significant amounts of safety time? Is it true that the more project experience the more safety included? Who has control of the safety? Who should? Have we discovered that a significant amount of the safety that is built in to the tasks is, in the end, wasted?

Separating the work from the safety Traditional – Distributed safety time remains within the tasks and in the control of each resource. Everyone must protect themselves as we know Murphy will strike we just don’t know when and where. Critical Chain - Aggregated safety time is gathered and placed strategically in the control of the project manager but available to the resources when needed. We still don’t know when and where Murphy will strike but we control the insurance. 50 % for work 25% freed 25% for insurance/buffer Buffer Freed safety

Negotiations Traditional Give plans and specs and ask for a price and duration Try to get their numbers to match your needs after the fact Each variable is now played against the other Lower cost=longer time Less time=reduced scope The resource is in control of the negotiations TOC – Critical Chain Confirm capability to perform scope and deliverables Determine prerequisites Get estimate of duration and first availability (90% skewed time likely) Split time 50:50 Check fit to schedule Ask for cost reminding that others are bidding under same circumstances

Critical Chain Task Definition and Building of the Project Network Task Definition and Building of the Project Network (begin with the end in mind) Clear identification of deliverables needed to accomplish project goals stated in terms of expected outcomes for, or impacts to, the organization Clear identification of expectations of project plan and management is included in the project goals definition The tasks are defined from the end (future) of the project to the beginning (current time) Task definition is complete when all starting tasks have either already begun or their required inputs are already available Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Defining tasks and relationships simultaneously Task that accomplishes the need or overcomes the obstacle Need or obstacle Clearly stated objectives of the project and the project plan Need or obstacle Tasks are defined by starting with the project goal(s) and then working earlier in time until currently occurring activities are reached by asking: In order to… I must immediately have completed Need or obstacle When branches occur, one branch is completed before starting another

Determining the who, what, and how long ? Tasks definition is complete when the starting tasks are either already in process or all inputs needed to begin them are available. The resources needed to perform the tasks can now be brought in to help verify that no tasks or needed inputs or requirements have been missed. This includes adding detail where what is needed is uncertain (outsourced activity). Once the work is defined, the times to complete the work can be determined.

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO Converting to the Gantt view There is no need to convert WBS scheduled activities to PERT view (precedence diagram) to determine task dependencies (task to task and paths/integrations) as this was done simultaneously with task identification This information does still need to be entered into our scheduling software The network view must still be converted to the Gantt view to determine time relationships to allow us to identify the Critical Chain and immunize the schedule from variability The software does this for us Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

How a project looks graphically Network View ? Bar Chart (Gantt View) The need and obstacle elements of the network view disappear in the Bar Chart (Gantt View) as they do not contain elements of work or time

Mechanisms for immunizing the schedule TOC - Critical Chain Task, path, and resource dependencies are all considered prior to identifying the “Critical Chain” Resource contentions are resolved from project completion toward start Strategically sized and placed buffers allow decoupling of the overall project from individual task and path variations Buffer = 1/3 of total path time (task + Buffer) Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Identifying the Critical Chain Move all tasks to as late as possible and all dependencies are taken into account (task, path and resource)

Identifying the Critical Chain Begin resolving resource contentions by moving competing task to earlier time

Identifying the Critical Chain Continue resolving resource contentions from the end of the project to the beginning. (CC) The Critical Chain (CC)is the longest path of continuous dependent events including resource, task and path dependencies.

Immunizing the project from variation along the Critical Chain: Sizing and placing the project completion buffer (PCB) (CC) PCB The project completion buffer (PCB) acts as a variation absorber and is equal to 50% of the total task time along the Critical Chain making it 1/3 of the total project lead time.

Sizing and placing the feeding buffers (FB) Immunizing the Critical Chain: Sizing and placing the feeding buffers (FB) *** ** PCB (CC) *** ** Identify locations where activities feed into (integrate with) the Critical Chain. The feeding may be due to task dependencies*, path dependencies** or resource dependencies ***

Sizing and placing the feeding buffers (FB) Immunizing the Critical Chain: Sizing and placing the feeding buffers (FB) FB * * FB PCB (CC) FB FB * * The feeding buffers* (FB) act as variation isolators between non Critical Chain activities and the Critical Chain. They are also equal to 50% of the total task time along the chain of tasks they are isolating. This may result in gaps in the Critical Chain and/or the need to start a non-Critical Chain activity before the Critical Chain.

Project lead time FB FB PCB (CC) FB FB This Feeding Buffer creates a new resource conflict but it is not resolved as all times are estimates so there may or may not be a conflict during actual execution and if so the buffer will address it The actual project start or end date is relative to time needs of the project: Drop Dead or Open Ended

When not to produce The feeding buffers tell us the right time (not too early or late) to start non-critical tasks Project lead time FB FB PCB (CC) FB FB

Promised project lead time FB Critical Chain FB PCB (CC) FB FB 20%-25% time advantage Promised project lead time PERT/CPM

What about a multiple project environment? Using a drum, key resource, to stagger projects PCB FB The start of the next project would be based on the placement of the last drum task in the current schedule and the first drum task in the next project with a buffer between the last and first respectively

If the red resource is the drum PCB FB Project One DB PCB FB Project Two DB

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO Managing the schedule TOC - Critical Chain - Buffer Management Focus remains on the global perspective of the original project goals Progress is reported based on buffer status and estimated time for remaining tasks At the task level, the focus is on getting the job done as soon as possible while maintaining original content The buffers allow time to plan and react appropriately to variation in the schedule Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Buffers are used to provide focus and early warning to protect the critical chain and due date WATCH OK Zone 3 ACT Zone 1 & PLAN Zone 2 BUFFER MANAGEMENT Remaining Project Buffer: 100% 67% 67% 33% 33% 0%

Project Control - Buffer Management The mechanism for gathering data provides us a glimpse into the future - so we can take action before we are in trouble while also allowing us time to not be pressured to act when actions are not necessary. The organization gathers the information for the status of the buffers in the following way: Each resource that is working on the project gives a “daily” status of the time they estimate they still need to work until the task is complete. That information is used to calculate whether any buffer time would be gained or lost if these time estimates proved true. This “daily” interaction is key to reinforce new behaviors and to provide opportunities to mentor resources.

Project Control - Buffer Management Project Buffer Status Day Task To Go Buffer 1 217 10 90 35 168 5 69 51 143 8 55 59 143 11 44 85 122 15 51 101 122 20 30 111 32 4 69

CCPM Project Control: When and where to work and when and where to intervene Do we have a way to determine how much safety is left if there is a conflict for the resources? Yes - The Project Buffers! We apply Buffer Management via comparing buffer status as our control mechanism.

Who gets the scarce resource? Buffer status report OK WATCH & PLAN ACT *Project A PCB Status Project A FB1 Status ** Project A FB2 Status * Project A FB3 Status Project B PCB Status Project B FB1 Status ** Project B FB2 Status Project B FB3 Status Tasks competing for same resource * **

Process of Ongoing Improvement (POOGI) Evaluating Resources Buffer impact (should track +, -, and average) Number of charged or credited times they impact the buffer Charged duration of the impacts (Should be viewed from both absolute and relative perspectives) Causes for charged impacts Same problem over and over Different issues from time to time Poor at identifying potential problems Constantly understaffing project High levels of rework Ability to consistently reduce the cost and time to do similar work from project to project Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

How does this fit with our fundamental needs of the system? Improve flow (order to cash in hand cycle time) as the primary objective Be translatable into practical mechanisms that guide the operation when not to produce Enable the need to abolish local efficiencies Include a focusing process to balance flow Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Buffer Management Here is a project that has a Critical Chain of 85 days, a Project Buffer of 43 days and a total lead time of 128 days.

Buffer Management Planned -> actual The first task completes 5 days early, but the second task takes 25 days to complete. Buffer Management shows the Project Buffer to be in Zone 3. Net schedule variance +10 days. What action should the Project Manager take? Planned -> actual

Buffer Management Planned -> actual After 20 days of work, the resource assigned to the third task is projecting completion in 20 days. Buffer Management shows the Project Buffer to be in Zone 2. What action should the Project Manager take? Planned -> actual

Buffer Management Planned -> actual After 30 days of work, the resource assigned to the third task is still projecting completion in 20 days. Buffer Management shows the Project Buffer to be in Zone 1. What action should the Project Manager take? Planned -> actual

Buffer Management Here is a project has a Critical Chain of 85 days, a Project Buffer of 43 days and a total lead time of 128 days.

Buffer Management Planned -> actual The first task completes 5 days early, but the second task takes 25 days to complete. Buffer Management shows the Project Buffer to be in Zone 3. The first task of the feeding path is accomplished in the duration time. What action should the Project Manager take? Planned -> actual

Buffer Management After 20 days of work, the resource assigned to the third task is projecting completion in 20 days. Buffer Management shows the Project Buffer to be in Zone 2. The second task of the feeding buffer is projecting completion in another 10 days. What action should the Project Manager take?

Buffer Management After 30 days of work, the resource assigned to the third task is still projecting completion in 20 days. Buffer Management shows the Project Buffer to be in Zone 1. What action should the Project Manager take?

Organizational Cultural Changes Resulting Effects Surges or peak demands on resources are minimized or non existent Natural human behaviors are used to create an environment of continuous improvement Projects are consistently delivered on or before committed dates, often under budget, and with all original scope objectives in place More projects can be accomplished within the same time and with the same resources Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Key tactics of CCPM that could be used without full implementation Necessity approach to Network building Negotiation process Critical Chain/path identification from end to beginning Tracking progress by asking how long to finish Minimize multi-tasking – can make a conscious effort but will not have buffers to direct and enforce Modification of buffer based priority – Each activity you make a commitment to has a due date. The time between making the commitment and the due dale = 100%. You can work whatever task has used the highest % of its assigned buffer Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

CCPM as a growth strategy Critical Chain offers a new and refreshing approach and solution for the undesirable effects project managers and organizations can no longer afford to suffer from Critical Chain is a complete solution that deals with both the algorithms of scheduling and the impacts of, and on, human behavior It is a solution that identifies the correct data processing needed to support schedule creation and management Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO

Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO Conclusions Critical Chain offers a new and refreshing approach and solution for the undesirable effects project managers and organizations can no longer afford to suffer from Critical Chain is a complete solution that deals with both the algorithms of scheduling and the impacts of, and on, human behavior It is a solution that identifies the correct data processing needed to support schedule creation and management Dr. Russ Johnson, President Improvement Quest, Inc Loveland, CO