CHAPTER 11 Cash Flow Estimation

Topics Estimating cash flows: Initial investment Operating cash flows Non-operating cash flows

4-step procedure Initial investment outlay Operating cash flows in the following years Non-operating cash flows in the last year apply NPV and other methods to evaluate the project

Estimating cash flows guidelines 1 FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Estimating cash flows guidelines 1 All project cash flows must be incremental For initial outlay Include opportunity costs Include changes in net working capital Ignore sunk costs

Estimating cash flows guidelines 1 All project cash flows must be incremental For operating cash flow Include opportunity costs Add back depreciation to net income Ignore interest expense Ignore allocated costs

Estimating cash flows guidelines 3 All project cash flows must be incremental non-operating cash flows in the last year

All cash flows must be incremental FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling All cash flows must be incremental To evaluate a project, we look at the cash flows which it contributes towards the firm’s existing cash flows. In other words, we look at project’s incremental cash flows.

Opportunity costs wrt initial outlay FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Opportunity costs wrt initial outlay Suppose the project requires the use of some asset owned by the firm. If the asset is not used by the project, the firm can sell the asset for $X. This $X is the opportunity cost of the asset. Such a cost should be included in the project’s cost. An asset’s opportunity cost is the money that the firm can receive if the asset is put to the next best use. The ‘next best’ use may be to sell the asset.

Changes in net working capital FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Changes in net working capital Very often, a project will require an initial increase in net working capital. This increase in net working capital must be added to the project’s costs. (changes in AR, Inv, AP, accruals, minimum cash balance) This additional working capital is recovered at the end of the project’s life, which is a non-operating cash inflow in the last year.

Sunk costs 1 costs which cannot be recovered regardless of whether the firm undertakes the project. Examples: R&D expenses, consultant fees incurred already

Sunk Costs 2 Suppose $100,000 had been spent last year to improve the production line site. Should this cost be included in the analysis? NO. This is a sunk cost.

Cannibalization Net sales after cannibalization If the new product line would decrease sales of the firm’s other products by $50,000 per year, would this affect the analysis? Yes. Net CF loss per year on other lines would be a cost to this project.

FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Depreciation Depreciation is a non-cash charge and must be added to net income to estimate cash flow. Operating Cash flow = net income + depreciation expense

Opportunity Costs wrt operating cash flows Suppose the plant space could be leased out for $25,000 a year. Would this affect the analysis? Yes. Accepting the project means we will not receive the $25,000. This is an opportunity cost and it should be charged to the project. After-tax opportunity cost = $25,000 (1 – T) = $15,000 annual cost.

Ignore allocated costs FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Ignore allocated costs Allocated costs: current rent, supervisory salaries, administrative costs, and various overhead expenses. These costs are not incremental. Thus, they should not be considered in estimating the project’s incremental cash flows.

Ignore interest expense FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Ignore interest expense WACC includes the interest expenses. In determining a project’s cash flows, we ignore it’s financing cost, i.e., the interest expense.

Non-operating cash flows The incremental net working capital at t=0 is recovered at the end of the project’s life, which is a non-operating cash inflow in the last year. After-tax salvage value

After-tax salvage cash flow Salvage Value $25 - Book Value Gain or loss - Tax(40%) 10 $15

FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Question 1 Thompson Company has to decide whether to build a new factory. Management has collected various cost data to use to make the decision. Some of the items collected are listed below. Which of the following should Thompson consider as being relevant for computing cash flows for the new factory project? $500,000 was spent last year to upgrade a piece of property on which the company is planning to build the new factory. It will cost $10,000,000 to construct the factory and new equipment costing $3,250,000 will need to be purchased and installed to begin production of the product to be sold. The factory construction costs of $10,000,000 will be financed entirely with new long-term debt (specifically a new bond issue). The company estimates that the interest costs of this new debt will be $850,000 per year. The variable cost of production is estimated to be 65% of annual sales. The accounting department plans to allocate supervisory and management costs of $25,000 per year to the project. No new supervisory or management personnel will be required.

Question 2 Investment in land and building: 200,000 Changes in net working capital: 8,000 increase in inventory, 3,500 increase in minimum cash balance, 18,000 increase in account receivable, 2,500 increase in account payable, 500 increase in accruals. The total amount will be recovered at the end of life of project. What is the initial change in net working capital? Answer: 8000+3500+18000-2500-500=26,500

Capital budgeting example 1 You are given the responsibility of conducting the project selection analysis in your firm. You have to calculate the NPV of a given project. The appropriate cost of capital is 12 percent and the firm is in the 30 percent tax bracket. You are provided the following pieces of information regarding the project:

Details The project is going to be built on a piece of land that the firm already owns. The market value of the land is $1 million. If the project is undertaken, prior to construction, an amount of $100,000 would have to be spent to make the land usable for construction purposes. In order to come up with the project concept, the company had hired a marketing research firm for $200,000. The firm has spent another $250,000 on R&D for this project.

Details The project will require an initial outlay of $20 million for plant and machinery. The sales from this project will be $15 million per year of which 20 percent will be from lost sales of existing products. The variable costs of manufacturing for this level of sales will be $9 million per year. The company uses straight-line depreciation. The project has an economic life of ten years and will have a before-tax salvage value of 3 million at the end.

Details Because of the project the company will need additional working capital of $1 million which can be liquidated at the end of ten years. The project will require additional supervisory and managerial manpower that will cost $200,000 per year. The accounting department has allocated $350,000 as allocated overhead cost for supervisory and managerial salaries.

Calculate initial cost FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Calculate initial cost Initial cost is the sum of: Market value of land: $1 mil (opportunity cost) Land improvement $100 k Plant & machinery: $20 mil Incremental working capital: $1 mil Initial cost = 1,000,000 + 100,000 + 20,000,000 + 1,000,000 = $22,100,000

Calculate the annual incremental cash flow: step 1 FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Calculate the annual incremental cash flow: step 1 Calculate the annual depreciation expense For this project, fixed assets refer to $20mil plant & machinery. Therefore, Depreciation = (20,000,000 – 3,000,000)/10 = $1,700,000 Calculate incremental sales Incremental sales = 0.8 x 15,000,000 = $12,000,000

Calculate the annual incremental cash flow: step 2 FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Calculate the annual incremental cash flow: step 2 Draw up the incremental income statement Incremental sales 12,000,000 Less Incremental variable cost 9,000,000 Less Incremental managerial salaries 200,000 Less Incremental depreciation 1,700,000 Equals Incremental taxable income 1,100,000 Less Incremental tax @30% 330,000 Equals Incremental net income 770,000 Add back depreciation Incremental cash flow $2,470,000

Step 3: non-operating cash flows FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Step 3: non-operating cash flows At the end of project’s life (t=10), company Recovers $1 mil additional working capital (item 9) Receives $3x(1-0.3)=2.1 mil after-tax salvage value from plant & machinery (item 8) Additional cash flows at end of project = 1,000,000 + 2,100,000 = $3,100,000

Step 4 CF0 (initial cost) = $22,100,000 Annual incremental after-tax cash flow (Year 1 through Year 10) = $2,470,000 Nonoperating cash flow in Year 10 = $3,100,000 So in year 10, the company receives a total of = 2,470,000 + 3,100,000 = $5,570,000

Step 4 NPV = -$7,145,832.09 Decision: reject the project. To compute NPV, enter cash flows in this way: CF0 = -22,100,000 C01 = 2,470,000, F01=9 C02 = 5,570,000, F02=1 Then press NPV, enter I = 12, press CPT and NPV. NPV = -$7,145,832.09 Decision: reject the project.

Capital budgeting example 2 ABC Corp. manufactures television sets and computer monitors. The company is considering introducing a new 40” flat screen television/monitor. The company’s CFO has collected the following information about the proposed product.

Details 1) The project has an anticipated economic life of 5 years. 2) The company will have to purchase a new machine to produce the screens. The machine has an up front cost (t = 0) of $4,000,000. The machine will be depreciated on a straight-line basis over 5 years. The company anticipates that the machine will last for five years and then have no salvage value (that is, it will be worthless).

Details 3) If the company goes ahead with the proposed product, it will have to increase inventory by $280,000 and accounts payable by $80,000. At t = 5, the net working capital will be recovered after the project is completed. 4) The screen is expected to generate sales revenue of $2,000,000 the first year; $4,500,000 the second through fourth years and $3,000,000 in the fifth year. Each year the operating costs (excluding depreciation) are expected to equal 50% of sales revenue.

Details 5) The company’s interest expense each year will be $350,000. 6) The new screens are expected to reduce the sales of the company’s large screen TV’s by $500,000 per year. 7) The company’s cost of capital is 12%. 8) The company’s tax rate is 30%.

Questions What is the initial investment for the project? What is the 3rd year expected incremental operating cash flow? (i.e., the incremental after tax cash flow) What is the 5th year incremental non-operating cash flow?

Q1: initial investment To answer Q1, you need points 2 & 3. = machine cost + change in net working capital = 4,000,000 + (change in current assets – change in current liabilities) = 4,000,000 + (280,000 – 80,000) = $4,200,000

Q2: 3rd incremental operating cash flow FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Q2: 3rd incremental operating cash flow To answer Q2, you need points 2,4,6,8. Steps: 1) Incremental sales = 4,500,000 – 500,000 = 4,000,000 2) Annual depreciation = (4,000,000)/5 = 800,000 3) Incremental operating cost for 3rd year = 0.5 x 4,500,000 = 2,250,000 Next, draw up the incremental income statement

Q2: 3rd incremental operating cash flow FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Q2: 3rd incremental operating cash flow Incremental sales 4,000,000 Less Incremental operating cost 2,250,000 Less Incremental depreciation 800,000 Equals Incremental taxable income 950,000 Less Incremental tax @30% 285,000 Equals Incremental net income 665,000 Add back depreciation Incremental cash flow $1,465,000

Q3: 5th year incremental non-operating cash flow FI 3300 - Corporate Finance Leng Ling Q3: 5th year incremental non-operating cash flow Very simple. The only incremental non-operating cash flow is the cash flow from liquidating the increase in net working capital (point 3). 5th year incremental non-operating cash flow = $200,000

Homework assignment Problems: 1, 2, 3, 7.