Middle East in Transition The Persian Gulf War and Its Continuing Aftermath

Middle East in Transition Why did Iraq invade Kuwait? Why did the U.S. and the international community respond so quickly and intensely? How was the alliance held together? Should anything have been done differently?

Middle East in Transition August 1990 Iraq invades and takes over Kuwait The UN authorizes economic sanctions and later military action Within days U.S. began deploying military forces to Saudi Arabia – eventually 430,000 In addition, 245,000 troops from 29 other countries arrive 16 January 1991 the U.S.-led alliance begins air strikes on Iraqi forces in Kuwait and Iraq 23 February 1991 the alliance launches a ground assault that quickly drives Iraqi forces out of Kuwait – ground war lasted 100 hours

Middle East in Transition Background to the 1991 Iraqi Invasion Kuwait In the 1700s Kuwait was under the control of the Ottoman-Turk Empire In 1756 one of the influential families in Kuwait, the al-Sabah family, negotiated autonomy (not complete independence) from the Ottomans In 1899, fearing the Ottomans would curtail the autonomy agreement, the al-Sabah family signed a treaty with Great Britain allowing Britain to control Kuwait’s foreign and defense affairs In 1961, Kuwait gains independence from Britain with the al-Sabah family continuing to rule They distributed a sizeable percentage o the country’s oil-produced wealth to “Kuwaiti Citizens”; however, only 28% of the 2.1 million people in the country were considered Kuwaitis The rest of the population was 18% Palestinians, 21% Arab, 9% South Asian, 4% Iranian and 20% other

Ottoman Turk Empire

Middle East in Transition Background to the 1991 Iraqi Invasion Before WWI Iraq was part of the Ottoman empire After WWI Great Britain assumed control of Iraq In 1932, Iraq became independent and established a constitutional monarchy following the British example that lasted 26 years

Middle East in Transition Background to the 1991 Iraqi Invasion In 1958, monarchy overthrown by military coup Over the next ten years, there were a series of coups and countercoups led by the military and Baath Party members In 1968, General Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr and his subordinate, Saddam Hussein take control Al-Bakr was a figurehead, Hussein was in charge In 1979, al-Bakr resigns, Hussein officially in charge of government, the military, and the Baath Party Hussein consolidates power by executing his challengers within the party

Middle East in Transition Background to the 1991 Iraqi Invasion In 1980, Hussein initiates war with Iran – 8 years Tied to a large number of religious, ethnic, historical, boundary, oil, and other issues Combined they suffered over 1 million casualties Use of Chemical Weapons and Lasers U.S. provided intelligence support to Iraq War ends in stalemate and both countries were devastated – Iraq had incurred an immense economic debt from borrowing billions from Kuwait and other Arab countries

Middle East in Transition Background to the 1991 Iraqi Invasion

Middle East in Transition Background to the 1991 Iraqi Invasion After the Iraq-Iran war ends in 1988, Hussein viewed himself as the rightful leader of the Arab peoples in the Persian Gulf region – declared himself the man who could return international prestige and power to the Arab people He compared himself to Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar who conquered Jerusalem in 587 B.C. and to Saladin who drove the Christian crusaders out of Jerusalem in the late twelfth century

Middle East in Transition Background to the 1991 Iraqi Invasion In July 1990, Hussein orders Iraqi forces to mass at the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border – intended to intimidate Kuwait into giving in on disagreements between the two countries Iraq’s war debt to Kuwait Kuwaiti oil production Boundary issues Kuwait doesn’t give in and on August 2nd Iraqi forces roll into Kuwait

Middle East in Transition U.S. Military Buildup U.N. Security Council immediately condemned Iraq’s actions and called for unconditional withdrawal Within a week, the U.N. voted for economic sanctions U.S. froze all Iraqi and Kuwaiti bank assets U.S. stopped all trade with Iraq U.S. sent troops and aircraft to Saudi Arabia to prevent an assault on Saudi Arabia – 29 other countries including 7 Arab states sent forces “Operation Desert Shield” – The fastest large-scale, intercontinental deployment of troops in military history When it became apparent that economic sanctions were not working, the U.N. authorized the use of “all necessary means,” including military force, to drive Iraq from Kuwait if they did not depart by January 15, 1991

Middle East in Transition The Iraqi Occupation & Last-Ditch Diplomacy Within days of the invasion of Kuwait, Iraq’s legislature voted to annex Kuwait as Iraq’s 19th province Foreign embassies were ordered out of Kuwait to Baghdad – those that stayed had electricity and water cut off Iraq began building bunkers, barricades, and other permanent military facilities Iraqi troops placed explosive charges on Kuwaiti oil wells Iraq cancelled its debts to Kuwait and began taking Kuwaiti property to Iraq Massive human rights violations – torture, rape, murder As the deadline drew near, foreigners were prevented from leaving Iraq and some were placed near military & industrial targets to prevent air attack – the world was outraged

Middle East in Transition Operation Desert Storm “Operation Desert Shield” was followed by “Operation Desert Storm” – A two-phased assault on Iraq and Iraqi forces in Kuwait Phase one of Operation Desert Storm was a month-long air assault on Iraqi offensive and defensive facilities – 2,000 sorties per day Targets included antiaircraft sites, SCUD missile launchers, airfields and aircraft, communications centers, weapon production facilities, oil refineries, transportation and supply systems, and ground forces Use of high-tech cruise missiles, laser-guided bombs, stealth aircraft and other weapons were extremely effective

Middle East in Transition Operation Desert Storm Not all significant military targets were destroyed – Iraqi SCUD missiles began launching against Israel the day after Desert Storm began and continued throughout the war Used against Israel and Saudi Arabia – Used to provoke a response from Israel in an attempt to disrupt the coalition Significant psychological effect and potential for use of chemical weapons

Middle East in Transition Operation Desert Storm While the air assault was underway, the commander General Norman Schwarzkopf moved over 150,000 coalition troops far inland – basically bypassing the Iraqi defenses and moving in deep behind them These forces were used to attack directly into Iraq and be used to cut off all Iraqi forces in Kuwait On 24 Feb the Second Phase of Desert Storm began – a 100 hour ground war that resulted in the destruction of hundreds of Iraqi tanks and other vehicles and the capture of thousands of Iraqi prisoners Many Iraqis surrendered without a fight Probably as many as 20,000 Iraqis KIA

Middle East in Transition Operation Desert Storm The retreating Iraqis set nearly 1,000 oil wells on fire creating enormous environmental damage – this took almost a year to clean up

Middle East in Transition Did Desert Storm End Too Soon? Iraqi forces were in full retreat, why didn’t the U.S. led coalition not finish destroying them and then go on and remove Saddam Hussein from power in Baghdad? U.N. resolutions authorized only the expulsion of Iraqi forces from Kuwait, not the overthrowing of the Iraqi government Several members of the coalition opposed any effort to change the Iraqi government, overthrowing Hussein could destroy the coalition

Middle East in Transition Did Desert Storm End Too Soon? U.S. had been successful in the Arab and Islamic worlds portraying itself as a defender of a rightfully ruling Arab government, if U.S. had overthrown Hussein our opponents would portray the U.S. as a dangerous and expansionist outsider If U.S. had overthrown Hussein, U.S. troops would have had to stay to maintain order, the government put in power would have been perceived as one imposed on Iraq by the U.S. and this would lead to instability

Middle East in Transition Did Desert Storm End Too Soon? If the Iraqi military were destroyed, Iran and Syria might become the dominant political- military force in the region As the ground war neared 100 hours, it was becoming a massacre, receiving a great deal of coverage by the international media U.S. intelligence community believed the humiliating defeat of the Iraqi army would cause the senior military officers to rise up and overthrow Hussein – it didn’t happen

Middle East in Transition Did Desert Storm End Too Soon?

Middle East in Transition Inside Iraq after the 1991 War Following the Persian Gulf War there were numerous attempts at coups and/or assassination attempts against Hussein Kurdish uprising in the north Iraqi Shia uprising in the south Two son-in-laws defected with Hussein’s daughters All brutally put down and those opposing Hussein were killed U.S. did not support attempts and only retaliated against Hussein’s forces

Middle East in Transition Iraq and the outside world after the 1991 War Hussein becomes increasingly defiant toward the international community International community tried to contain Hussein through diplomatic and economic sanctions Periodic military strikes During this time the U.S. and British flew roughly 374,000 sorties

Middle East in Transition Iraq and the outside world after the 1991 War Under the cease-fire agreement from the war, Hussein had to agree to the following concerning Iraq’s WMD Reveal locations of WMD research and production facilities Allow U.N. teams to inspect those sites Provide information to U.N. inspection teams about WMD programs When instructed, destroy WMD facilities and stockpiles

Middle East in Transition Iraq and the outside world after the 1991 War By 1996, Iraq’s economy is in shambles and Hussein surprises observers by accepting U.N. Security Council Resolution 986 Allowed limited sales of oil; U.N. to control the revenue Money was used to purchase food and medicine for the Iraqi people Money also used to finance the U.N. weapons inspection program and compensate victims of the Persian Gulf War

Middle East in Transition Iraq and the outside world after the 1991 War During the late 1990’s, recurring confrontations between Iraq and the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) kept tensions high UNSCOM was charged with investigating Iraq’s WMD program U.S. arms inspectors were expelled in 1997 By December 1998, Iraq cuts off ties with the commission UNSCOM evacuated Iraq…America and British forces launched a massive air campaign against Iraqi military targets – air strikes without the backing of the U.N. Security Council and France, Russian and China opposed the strikes

Middle East in Transition Iraq Policy Under George W Middle East in Transition Iraq Policy Under George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism After taking office, Pres. Bush continued U.S. efforts to isolate Iraq and undermine Saddam Hussein In early 2001, U.S. and British warplanes bombed Iraqi air defenses outside the “no-fly” zone – preventive not provoked

Middle East in Transition Iraq Policy Under George W Middle East in Transition Iraq Policy Under George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism Following 9/11 and the invasion of Afghanistan, the Bush administration focused on Iraq as the next target in the war on terrorism The administration argued that if Iraq was left unchecked they could one day provide terrorist organizations with WMD In November 2002, the U.N. passed Resolution 1441 calling on Hussein to allow unconditional weapons inspections Within weeks, U.N. monitors were in Iraq and opposition to military action grew in the Security Council and world community The Bush administration was skeptical of the inspections and emphasized regime change rather than disarmament

Middle East in Transition Iraq Policy Under George W Middle East in Transition Iraq Policy Under George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism In February 2003, U.S. Secretary Of Sate Colin Powell tried to persuade U.N. members that Iraq had WMD, was subverting the inspection process and had links to al Queda U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix disagreed and described increasing cooperation from the Iraqi government and satisfaction with the pace of disarmament

Middle East in Transition Iraq Policy Under George W Middle East in Transition Iraq Policy Under George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism With no clear evidence of Iraqi noncompliance with 1441 or the existence of WMD, the majority of U.N. Security Council members opposed military action After several weeks, the United States and Great Britain abandoned efforts to get a U.N. mandate for war against Iraq

Middle East in Transition The Second War in Iraq Restating its earlier case regarding the imminent dangers of Iraq, the U.S. led a “coalition of the willing” in a war to overthrow Saddam Hussein March 20, 2003, the coalition military, led by U.S. and British forces quickly controlled southern Iraq and Baghdad By April the U.S. had installed an administration, later named the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to oversee the transition of an interim Iraqi government

Middle East in Transition The Second War in Iraq After the overthrow of the Hussein regime rioting was widespread because U.S. forces were unprepared to serve as policemen Looters ransacked government buildings, businesses, utility companies, and even museums Many Iraqis turned against the U.S. because of its inability to provide security or restore order

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq The CPA had to maintain a delicate balancing act Wanted transfer of power to Iraqis as quickly as possible Wanted to maintain security and set the groundwork for democracy and economic development Still working on it

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Politics In defense of the CPA, it took care to make sure the IGC reflected Iraq’s different groups 13 Shias 5 Sunnis 5 Kurds 1 Assyrian Christian 1 Turkmen In trying to foster a secular democracy, of those 25 appointed to the IGC, 9 had lived outside of Iraq and several had advised Pres Bush prior to the invasion

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Politics In July 2003, the CPA, under U.S. Paul Bremmer, appointed a 25 member Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) Best way of bring Iraqis into government leadership positions ASAP Critics said it was a way for the U.S. to put an Iraqi face on a U.S.-led administration

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Politics IGC established as an advisory council on what a democratic Iraq should look like Key questions it dealt with Amount of regional autonomy Role of religion in state affairs Control of oil resources How the constitutional process should move forward In early 2004, the CPA & IGC draft an interim constitution called the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL)

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Politics June 28, 2004, sovereignty was transferred from the CPA to an interim Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Iyad Allawi Appointed by U.N. & U.S. instead of elected August 2004, a National Council Conference of about 1,000 delegates met to select a 100-member parliament Parliament chosen to hold the interim government accountable Not entirely democratic, but it gave groups a way to voice their grievances

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Politics Interim Government => Prepare for national elections => Transitional Government => Permanent Constitution => National Election => Permanent Government

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Politics 30 January 2005, Transitional National Assembly elected Turnout high in Shia & Kurdish areas, low in Sunni Shiites & Kurds main winners, Sunnis underrepresented Shiite leader Ibrahim al-Jaafari became Prime Minister

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Politics Key political issues Degree of federalism Control over oil revenues Official role of religion

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Politics Elections for a full-term parliament took place on 15 December 2005 Little violence Participation high Shiite parties won most seats Other groups won enough to counter Shiite power Jawad al-Maliki named Prime Minister in April 2006

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Economics When the CPA and IGC took power in mid-2003, they inherited an economy severely damaged by war, a decade of international sanctions and years of mismanagement by Saddam Hussein

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Economics November 2003, Congress authorized $18 billion to rebuild Iraq – other countries pledged $14 billion As of December 2005, $12.5 billion of U.S. money had been spent As of December 2005, only $3.2 billion of international aid had been distributed – this is hurting the reconstruction process

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Economics Rebuilding also slowed by the high level of insecurity in many parts of the country August 2003, UN Baghdad Headquarters bombed => many nongovernmental agencies leave Iraq Oil industry estimates they lose $11 billion due to sabotage Insurgent attacks, kidnappings, rampant crime and weak legal system raise the cost of doing business and discourage investment

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Economics Some rebuilding has occurred Roads, schools, health clinics, railways, ports, oil fields and sewage, irrigation, and communications systems have been built or rebuilt Water and electricity supplies, while erratic, are approaching prewar levels Reconstruction cost thru 2007 estimated at $55 billion Compounding the problems in the country the per capita income is $620 and 96% of the population is receiving food rations and other social welfare services

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Security The success of reconstruction depend on establishing security Saddam Hussein captured and put on trial More than 250,000 Iraqis trained as security force Many challenges still remain Widespread insurgent attacks, fighting among rival Iraqi factions, acts of sabotage, rampant crime and clashes between coalition forces and Iraqi citizens who have become disillusioned with the occupation

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Security Sources of the insurgency are varied: Sunni nationalists – former members of the Baath Party Also includes members from the disbanded Iraqi army Shiite radicals – minority in the population Disenchanted by accidental killings of civilians, humiliating searches and detentions and the prisoner abuse scandal of Abu Graibe

Middle East in Transition Rebuilding Iraq - Security Complicating the insurgency problem is the presence radical Islamists from across the world Common goal is to disrupt coalition efforts to establish a democracy in Iraq Extent of the collaboration is unclear Estimated that 2,000 of the 20,000 insurgents in Iraq are foreign fighters

Middle East in Transition The Persian Gulf War Questions