Peak Car? Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012 Industrialized countries hit a plateau International comparison, index of absolute car km per year

Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete , SCB for GDP,Trafikanalys körsträckor Economic growth explains less

Money matters a lot Total Sweden, 2002 index per adult Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; GDP and adult population ages from scb.se, bensin gas prices from spbi.se, all prices are inflation adjusted

Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages from scb.se Money matters a lot …given good alternatives

Peak Car in the cities - Why? Investments and Policy Mode and destination alternatives! Central housing Parking, Congestion Economy Cost of driving Income distribution, employment

Peak Car in the cities - Why? Lifestyles and Technology Virtual trips and trip planning Fewer but longer trips, flights Youth delays licensing Wealthier and healthier pensioners Investments and Policy Mode and destination alternatives! Central housing Parking, Congestion Economy Cost of driving Income distribution, employment

Peak Car in the cities - Why? Investments and Policy Mode and destination alternatives! Central housing Parking, Congestion Demography and Urbanization! Growing cities (especially young, single, immigrant, habits still forming) Later family forming and employment, more students Self selection, e.g. new parents moving to the suburbs Economy Cost of driving Income distribution, employment Lifestyles and Technology Virtual trips and trip planning Fewer but longer trips, flights Youth delays licensing Wealthier and healthier pensioners

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey Opposite trends by life cycle group

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey Opposite trends by life cycle group

More immigration – new habits Souce: scb.se More asylum immigration since 2006

Opposing car access trends Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages from scb.se

Cars get driven somewhat less (Multimodality, new habits, different owners, alternatives, economy) Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages from scb.se

Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible options Prepare for change in financing / taxes Potential to steer is greater than assumed Combine financial incentives with improved alternatives – Congestion charge, parking space and price – Dense, mixed use, attractive centers. Fewer distant shopping centers – Public transit, walk, cycle alternatives Conclusions

Peak Car? Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH