1 Achieving Universal Access to Modern Energy in the East Asia and Pacific Region NPT, Myanmar May 23, 2013 Dr. Dejan Ostojic, Sector Leader, Energy East Asia and Pacific Region The World Bank Report funded by AusAID

Access to Modern Energy: Where Do We Stand? 2

Electrification and Economic Development 3 Many EAP countries have achieved substantial progress over the last decade. Universal access to electricity by 2030 is within reach of EAP countries … but low access countries have a steep path to universal access.

Electrification and Social Development 4 Three countries categories of electricity access: low, medium and high. Access rates are not always correlated to poverty levels, e.g. Lao PDR.

Access to Modern Cooking Fuels 5 Access to modern cooking fuels remains low, even in countries with high access rates to electricity (China, Thailand). Populations without access to modern cooking fuel are much higher that for electricity.

Access to Modern Cooking Fuels and Health 6 A major breakthrough is needed to provide universal access to modern cooking fuels (LPG/bio- gas, kerosene, electricity) and advanced cooking stoves … but prolonged dependence on solid fuels is a major barrier to achieving the MDGs.

A Vast Urban-Rural Divide in Energy Access 7 EAP countries have to work on two paths to improve access to modern energy … but both paths are much more challenging in rural areas.

Reaching Universal Access to Electricity 8

The Path Forward for Electrification 9 Level of electricity access (% HH) GridOff-Grid High (>95) China, Thailand, Vietnam Finalizing “last-mile” issuesInnovating energy solutions for remote HH Medium (50–95) Indonesia, Lao PDR, Mongolia,Philippines Maintaining momentum of effective programs; jumpstart programs that have stagnated. Solidify existing efforts and commit to pass necessary reforms to serve remote HH and communities. Low (<50) Cambodia, Myanmar, most Pacific Island Countries (PICs), and Timor-Leste Adopt NEP (National Electrification Program) and make a serious commitment to creating/ expanding national grid for HH benefits. Develop the institutional and regulatory framework for off–grid solutions

Delivering Results on the Ground: Key Principles 10 1.Ensure Sustained Government Commitment 2.Implement Effective and Enabling Policy Framework: 3. Push for Accountability and Results

Delivering Results on the Ground: Key Principles 11 Ensure Sustained Government Commitment: Long-term commitment at the national level Establish credible time-bound targets Ensure transparency and accountability Facilitate links with other sectors Coordinate with local governments Promote income-generating activities and productive use of electricity Implement Effective and Enabling Policy Framework: Cost effectiveness: least cost management of boundary between grid and off- grid with the objective to deliver a well defined level of service (not specific technology) Affordability – to consumers, to service providers, and to subsidy provider(s) Consumer focus and timing of electrification – do not underestimate willingness to pay for good service.

Delivering Results on the Ground: Key Principles 12 Push for Accountability and Results: Designate entity(ies) with clear responsibility for grid-based and off-grid electrification Adopt appropriate technical codes and service standards Make service providers accountable to consumers for quality of service Monitor cost achieved by service providers Program Financing: Develop financial framework using both internal and external sources Use explicit and well targeted subsidies to ensure: affordability to consumers financial viability of the service provider affordability to the budget Develop “bankable” sector-wide and programmatic approach (“Sector-Wide Prospectus”) offering multiple points of entry for donors and private sector.

Two Scenarios for Electricity Access 13 Business-As-Usual: electricity access grows at the same average annual rate as in the last decade. 21 million households (about 100 million people) remain without access by 2030 Universal Access Scenario: all households gain access by 2030.

Investment Needs for Electricity Access 14 Investment needs by 2030: - Business-As-Usual: $30 billion - Universal Access Scenario: $56 billion Incremental needs for universal access: - $24 billion for rural areas ($19.7 billion grid and $4.2 billion off-grid) - $2 billion in urban areas.

Myanmar: Towards Universal Access to Modern Energy 15

Electrification Agenda 16 Key challenges: Ensure adequate and competitive generation supply to keep the pace with population and economic growth. Extend electricity to over 40 million people (about 8 million households) of which 70 percent are in rural areas Improve financial health of power enterprises (MEPE, YESB, ESE) to ensure steady and rapid increase in electricity access. Promote the use of renewable energy resources and technical innovations to reduce costs, improve reliability, and provide timely service to all households

Key Messages 17  Access to modern energy, both electrification and clean cooking fuels, is essential for the achievement of MDGs and eradication of poverty, but the electrification is an immediate priority for economic and social development in Myanmar  The Goal of Universal Access to Electricity by 2030 is affordable – but it requires sustained government’s commitment, re-focusing of sector policies, and s ignificant financial support from donors  The National Electrification Program (NEP) should embrace both grid and off-grid solutions, including appropriate policies and technical innovations to reduce costs, improve reliability, and provide timely service to all households.  The World Bank Group will support NEP, both financial support for investments and technical assistance for institutional development will be available to Myanmar for the implementation of NEP