Mortality Projections in Portugal Joint EUROSTAT – UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisboa, April 2010 Edviges Coelho – Instituto Nacional de Estatística - Portugal Graça Magalhães – Instituto Nacional de Estatística - Portugal Jorge Miguel Bravo – Universidade de Évora / CEFAGE-UE João Peixoto – Universidade Técnica de Lisboa / ISEG

2 «  Introduction  Past Trends and Future Perspectives  Scenarios adopted  Projections Models: The Poisson-Lee-Carter Model Model extension with “Limit Life Table”  Empirical results « « Outline

3 The Portuguese Population Projections :  Cohort - component method  Starting population – 1 st January 2008 Estimates of Resident Population Introduction

4  Assumptions on future levels of mortality  Recent trends  Scientific studies  National experts’ opinions  International experts’ opinions (EUROSTAT) Introduction

5  Combination of extrapolative stochastic methods with experts’ judgment  Poisson Lee-Carter Model Extrapolative method assuming that the future will mirror the past  Poisson Lee-Carter Model with Limit Table Integrates the experts’ judgment about limits to the decline of age-specific death rates into the Lee-Carter model. Mortality Projections Methodology

6 Mortality Recent Trends Life expectancy at birth Life expectancy at 65 years

7  The analysis of past trends and experts’ opinions provides the following perspectives for the future:  Increases in the population life expectancy will continue to occur in the future, but at a slower pace;  Declines in mortality at older ages may also be relevant;  Future gains in infant mortality are expected to be small;  Some improvement in avoidable mortality in young and adult ages, particularly associated with reduced risk of death from external causes, particularly among males (attenuation of the accident hump), can be expected;  The recent trend of narrowing the gap in longevity between men and women will continue. Future Perspectives

8  Mortality Assumptions:  Optimistic Scenario: Future mortality will continue to improve at the same rate as in the recent past.  Moderate Scenario: Integration of the experts’ perspectives on mortality for the next 50 years Adopted Scenarios

9  Model:  Optimistic Scenario: - Poisson Lee-Carter model.  Moderate Scenario: - Poisson Lee-Carter model with Limit Life Table. Models

10 « Let m x,t, be the death rate at age x in year t. where, average pattern of mortality by age across years, the relative speed of change at each age of m x,t, is an index of the level of mortality at time t, and an error that reflects stochastic influences which are not captured by the previous terms. The Lee - Carter Model

11 « Let m x,t, be the death rate at age x in year t.  This is a regression framework with no observable quantities on the RHS.  The model is over parameterized  To ensure model identification Lee and Carter (1922) add the following constraints to the parameters: The Lee - Carter Model

12 « «  Lee and Carter (1922) : Singular Value Decomposition  Brouhns, Denuit & Vermunt, 2002: Maximum Likelihood Fitting The Lee - Carter Model

13 PLC Estimates of

14 PLC Estimates of and Estimated

15 PLC Estimates of and forecasts

16  The decreasing time trend of associated with positive values of.  The model leads us invariably to asymptotic death rates approaching zero.  An unlikely scenario according to the experts’ judgment on the mortality phenomenon for the next 50 years. Lee-Carter with Limit Life Table

17  Limits to the decline of age – specific deaths rates were imposed through the use of the second mortality law of Heligman and Pollard (1980).  The limits are defined accordingly to the future perspectives of mortality behaviour integrating the opinions of experts. Lee-Carter with Limit Life Table

18 Lee-Carter with Limit Life Table

19 PLC Estimates of

20 PLC Estimates of

21 PLC Estimates of

22 Mortality Rates Projections 2060

23 Mortality Rates Projections 2060

24 Life expectancy at birth, by sex and by mortality scenarios, Portugal, Mortality – life expectancy

25 Fertility and net migration adopted on the central scenario of PP, moderate and optimistic scenario of mortality The effects of the two different mortality scenarios on the projected population are particularly visible in the volume expansion at older ages… a cumulative effect is noticeable in the age pyramid of population projected for 2060 and particularly at ages above 60 years. Population pyramids -1980, 2060

26 More detailed information on the last national exercise can be found at Statistics Portugal portal CACOESpub_boui= &PUBLICACOEStema=55466&PUBLICAC OESmodo=2 Sest_boui= &ESTUDOStema=55466&ESTUDOSmodo=2

The future of Portuguese population? Hummm… Thank you!