How on Earth can we Live Together Göran Carstedt Stonehouse Summit, Jan 19 2009

Our Unsustainable Journey Global warming Water scarcity Biodiversity Poverty …

Capacity Responsibility RCI Projections Target total income, excluding income below the development threshold (USD 20/day) Responsibility cumulative emissions since 1990 (excluding emissions from consumption below threshold) RCI Responsibility Capacity Index Projections IEA World Energy Outlook (2007) Target emission reduction pathways to hold global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (peak 2013 (429 ppm), 80% below 1990 level at 2050)

Canada & Sweden

Göran Carstedt 2007

Copenhagen November 2009 Post Kyoto- National commitments Risk for Success Political compromises Nature not at the table

IPCC- Group III Report, May 2007 Global GHG emissions must be reduced by 50-80% to year 2050 to limit global warming to + 2 C today’s 379 ppm must be leveled off at 350-400 ppm assuming max point at the latest 2015 Global GHG emissions have increased by 70% from 1970 to 2004 by +24% since 1990 with Business as Usual, additional +25-90% by 2030 Total cost to stabilize GHG concentrations less than 3% of global GNP year 2030 = yearly global growth of 3.5% instead of 3.6%

GHG Emissions 1990-2004 Kyoto objective -8% 1990-2012: Change Total Europe 15 -0.6% 4.2 bln tCO2eq Japan +6.5% 1.3 bln USA +16% 7.1 bln Canada + 25% 0,7 bln Australia +25% 0.5 bln Kyoto objective -8% 1990-2012: Source: UNFCCC (2006) Göran Carstedt 2007

GHG Emissions Europe: 1990-2005 Germany -18.7% UK -15.7% Sweden -7.4% Italy +12.1% Ireland +25.4% Spain +52.3% Source: EEA (2007) Göran Carstedt 2007

CO2 Emissions per Person India 1 (ton per year) China 5 Sweden 7 Germany 10 USA/Canada 20 Global 4 (can absorb max 1,5)

Per capita CO2 emissions (in tonnes) All sources; other GHGs not included China’s level and rate of growth likely to be understated Integrated energy report of 11th 5year plan states that India wants to quadruple energy from coal over the next 25 years China likely to double within the next 20 years

Emissions – targets & commitments EU27: 20% 2020 (1990) Germany: 36% 2020 (1990) UK: 26% 2020 (1990) (into law) France: 25% 2020 (1990) Sweden: 30% 2020 (1990) Japan 6% 2012 (1990) China 20% 2012 (2007) (efficiency) Göran Carstedt 2007

Emissions – targets & commitments California: 25% 2020 (1990) London: 30% 2025 (1990) +30% EU & UK Government New York City: 30% 2030 (2007) Paris: 75% 2050 (2004) Stockholm: 60-80% 2050 (1990) Tokyo: 25% 2020 (2000) Rotterdam: 50% 2025 (1990) Göran Carstedt 2007

European Parliament- dec 2008 20-20-20 Plan by 2020: 20% reduction of GHG emissions (1990) 20% increase in use of renewable energy 20% improved energy efficiency +10% of transportation fuels= biofuels, electricity, hydrogen GHG reductions compared with fossil fuels 35% -> 50% -> 60% (2011) (2013) (2017) Second generation biofuels = double credited 2012: 130 g CO2/km 2020: 95 g CO2/km today: 160g CO2/km

Sweden (1990-2006) GHG emissions down 8.7% Economic growth up 44%

Sweden CO2 tax from 1990 ($ 120/ton CO2) Electricity certificates CO2 differentiated vehicle taxes Tax exemtion for biofuels to 2012 Tax exemptions for energy saving retro fitting Public education

Sweden The Oil Commission (2005)- Independant of oil at 2020 will succeed in heating of buildings Biofuels (pellets) Waste Combined heat & power Energy efficiency Transportation? 2008: 35% of new cars sold- green cars (mostly ethanol flexifuel) Still small proportion of total fleet Retrofitting of used cars coming

Denmark Very hard hit by the oilcrises 1973 What did they do? Too dependant on oilimports Today self suffiscient in energy Exports oil, gas, electricity More people wiling to pay higher prices for clean energy, than in any other EU country What did they do? Taxes on fuel and electricity District heating system (waste & cogeneration) Building codes Subsidies to energy efficient appliances Supporting Wind Farms (20% of electricity- Vestas)

Denmark Energy consumption 1975-2005 +/- 0 (USA +40%) GDP 200% Denmark= 6.600 kwh p.a. in electriciy per person USA = 13.000 kwh

Price of electricity in Denmark compared to: US +43% France +24% UK +19%

Obama Yes, We can!

Transformational Change?

A leadership challenge… - Technological challenge what technologies can help us? - Political challenge what society do we want to live in? - Organisational challenge how can we make it happen?

- Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008 ”I was struck by the countries that won’t meet their Kyoto targets… They aren’t lazy, they aren’t stupid and they are not corrupt. They’re well-meaning, hard-working people who are, like all political leaders, facing all kinds of competing pressures in an economy that is not organized for tomorrow’s energy- it’s organized for yesterday’s.” - Bill Clinton, The Guardian, Aug 2008

What if… our organizations are not capable to deal with the complexities we are now meeting? GC 2001

What if organizations don't act like machines, but more like living communities?

What if… change is less about reorganizing,restructuring and reengineering and more about reconceiving? GC 2001

What if people don’t mind change, but they do mind being changed?

What if people are not led by managers, but by good ideas ? GC 2001

What if you can only earn people's trust by being trustworthy? (GC 1997)

Learning Why do we confront learning opportunities with fear rather than wonder? Why do we derive our self-esteem from knowing as opposed to learning? Why do we criticise before we even understand? Why do we create controlling bureaucracies when we attempt to form visionary enterprises? Why do we persist in fragmentation and piecemeal analysis as the world becomes more and more interconnected? Peter Senge

Optimistic or Pessimistic?

The Industrial Revolution - transformed our society no master plan no starting/end point not led by anyone not an initiative of any political, governmental or religious body GC 2000

Industrial Revolutionen The product of millions of small beginnings A process of making things better Outpouring of human creativity Changing Perceptions- among the many people GC 2000

”There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come. ” ”There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come.” - Victor Hugo