Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Email hsv@dsri.dk Københavns Universitet, 2002.

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Presentation transcript:

Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Email hsv@dsri.dk Københavns Universitet, 2002

Satellite Failures due to Space Weather Effects Anomalies due to spacecraft surface and internal charging (Marecs, ECS, Meteosat, TELE-X,…..) Latch-up induced failures (ESR-1, PRARE, Equator-S,…..) SEU’s in linear circuits…(Anik 1 &2) Solar Array problems/degradation (Tempo, PanAm, ECS,….) More recent satellite failures: Telestar 401 TV links etc.. Galaxy IV silenced 80% of pagers in North America More than 12 satellites lost due to Space Weather Effects Last 4 years space losses may have exceeded $500 million Commercial interests often do not allow anomaly reporting.

Damage to transformers Damage to a transformer at a power plant Delaware, New Jersey Price: 10 mill USD Repair can take up to 1 year. In this particular case they were lucky to find a used one from a shut down plant. Took only 6 weeks to restore Sweden: simultaneous power loss in six 130 kV power distribution lines Chicago: Five transformers in the Chicago area failed due to elevated geomagnetic activity

New Particle formation: Observations and Theory Observed nucleation rates are much larger than predicted by classical binary (H2SO4+H2O) nucleation theory The functional dependence of the observed nucleation rate of [H2SO4] is much weaker (~ [H2SO4]2 )than predicted by classical binary (H2SO4+H2O) nucleation theory (~ [H2SO4]10 ) Measured growth rates of freshly formed nanoparticles are about a factor of 10 higher than can be explained by H2SO4 and its associated H2O and NH3

Micro-physics: Why in the lower part of the atmosphere? DG t: Time to grow from rc to r* rc ri r* r T (sek) Ion-pair/cc/sek 400 300 200 100 0 5 10 t ~ 200 sek for [H2SO4] = 2.5 107 pr cc

enhanced aerosol formation caused by ionisation Experimental evidence of enhanced aerosol formation caused by ionisation Natural level of ionisation Artificial air N2:O2 = 4:1 SO2 = 300 ppb C2H4 = 100 ppb O3 = 160 ppb Vohra et al., Atmos. Environment, 18, 1653 (1984)

Cosmic ray variations ionisation and aerosol formation Based on Numerical studies by Yu, 2001

CLOUD experimenet ved CERN

Kulstof-14 fra træ-ringe Solaktivitet og Klima Kulstof-14 fra træ-ringe

IR Cloud properties and Cosmic rays Cosmic Ray - Low Cloud Top Temperature Correlation only found in low clouds Marsh and Svensmark, PRL 2000

Little Ice age (~ 1300-1800) Documented in Europe Greenland Sargasso Sea Peru East Africa Japan Caribbean Sea West Africa Taiwan and China South Africa USA Argentina

Ice-ages and spiral arms Cosmic ray flux is larger in spiral arms One revolution take about 240 Mill years Spiral arm crossings every 140 Mill years

Ice-ages and spiral arms Nir Shaviv, PRL 2002