EGU General AssemblyEGU INGV-DPC Project UNRESTVienna, 05/05/2010

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS INTRO Emergency Preparedness denition in advance of tools to assist decision makers Emergency Preparedness denition in advance of tools to assist decision makers Short-term eruption forecasting keys: 1.to recognize anomalous signals and relate them to physical processes ELICITATIONS 2.to assign probability values STATISTICAL MODEL 3. to quickly provide answers to unexpected phenomena TRAINED COMMUNITY ONLINE TOOLS

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS INTRO + = STATISTICAL MODEL VOLC. COMMUNITY FORECASTING TOOL INDERECT ELICITATIONS the community of experts set the parameters of the statistical model

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS BET_EF

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS BET_EF NODE 1 UNREST unrest no unrest NODE 2 MAGMATIC UNREST magma no magma NODE 3 ERUPTION eruption no eruption NODE 4 VENT LOCATION loc #1 loc #2 … loc #700 NODE 5 ERUPTION SIZE lava dome small expl. medium expl. large expl. NODE identification of anomalies indicating each event (node) - definition of the state of anomaly through thresholds evaluation of the probability at node from the state of anomaly of all informative parameters

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS Anomaly: z Information: w z Probability: 1 - e - w z} BET_EF measure BACKGROUN D ANOMALY Gray Area THRESHOLD 1 THRESHOLD 2 PARAMETERS MODELMODEL

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS ELICITATIONS

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS ELICITATIONS DELPHI METHOD structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts, facilitating the formation of a group judgement: structured information ows feedback of participants anonymity of participants pre-eruptive node and tools group of experts trained to ET and elicitation procedures GOAL: AGREED GROUP OPINION 30 researchers within 2 projects from elicitations sessions scores of experts reecting their consideration within the group consensus is formed during general discussions EXPERT GROUP

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS ELICITATIONS Pre-elicitation meetings (seminars, meetings, internet forum): statistical model, tools for the elicitation, discussions on the monitoring network, studies/models (cross-feedback), interpretations (consensus-seeking) Elicitation sessions: physical meetings --> internet session score the other experts, selection of parameters and thresholds Post-elicitation meetings (moderated discussions sessions): consequence of choices and performance of the model, general discussions on single parameters, measures and definitions, etc. COMMUNITY-FORMING PROCESS

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS ELICITATIONS DURING ELICITATION - Predefined lists of experts and parameters - Online forms to -selected parameters -assign thresholds -vote the other experts - Online forum ONLINE ELICITATION – ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS - Automatic analysis - Stability check through differentiated statistical analyses - Automatic publication of results

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS LEGENDA: Boolean parameters are represented by YES Gray areas correspond to variable probability of being in the adjacent states, depending on the measured values RESULTS ELICITATION V BACKGROUN D Gray area UNREST Gray area MAGM. UNREST Gray area ERUPTION VT (M > 0.8) [ev/day] 5 15 LP/VLP/ULP [ev/month ] 2 10 Rate uplift [cm/month ] Uplift [cm] T Pisciarelli VLP/ULP 1 5 Deep VT (M > 0.8) [ev/day] 2 20 Deep LP (> 2 Km) [ev/day] 3 20 Disp. Hypocenters [Km] 1 3 Tremor YES Deep Tremor (>3.5 Km) YES Acc. seismic events YES Acc. RSAM YES New fractures YES Macr. (dm) variation in def. YES Migr. max uplift YES Ext degassing YES Magm. comp. gases YES HF - HCl - SO2 YES Phreatic activity YES

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS BOOLEANQUANTITATIVE To UNREST 3 (0.40)5 (0.60) To MAGMATIC UN. 6 (0.60)4 (0.40) To ERUPTION 8 (0.90)1 (0.10) RESULTS SEISMICITYDEFORMATIONGASES To UNREST 2 (0.25)3 (0.37) To MAGMATIC UN. 5 (0.50)3 (0.30)2 (0.20) To ERUPTION 4 (0.45)3 (0.33)2 (0.22)

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS SEISMICITY To UNRESTcounting VT, LP/VLP/ULPbasic observations To MAGMATIC UN.deep VT, deep LP tremor depth, wave forms To ERUPTIONacceleration dispersion hypocenters macroscopic variations RESULTS

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS DEFORMATION To UNRESTuplift, uplift rate Less sensitive: Too many interpretations heard? To MAGMATIC UN.uplift To ERUPTIONsurf. fractures macroscopi variations migr. of maximum uplift macroscopic variations

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS GASES To UNRESTT fumarole Ext. degassing struct. No chemistry: delayed response of gases To MAGMATIC UN.Acidic gas Magm. component directly into eruption Smaller changes controlled by hydroth. system To ERUPTIONAcidic gas Phreatic explosions macroscopic variations RESULTS

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS Seismicity: Highest sensitivity Deformation:Macroscopic changes Gases:Macroscopic changes Seismicity: Highest sensitivity Deformation:Macroscopic changes Gases:Macroscopic changes In Favour of Seismicity: Longest sesmic record and experience, exceptional sequence largely documented in , more developed network, rapidity of information, effective higher sensitivity, … Against Deformation and Gases: Interpretations too model-dependent, many contrasting interpretations, large control of hydrothermal system, delayed gas-related signals, … RESULTS

Vienna, Vienna, 05/05/2010 Emergency preparedness at Campi Flegrei Index: INTRO BET_EF ELICITATIONS RESULTS SUMMARY Statistical model (BET_EF) and volcanological interpretation are kept separated: separate validations are possible experts asked for volcanological interpretation only an automatic and easily reviewable tool for eruption forecasting is set The 5 yrs long elicitation process provided a global picture of the confidence on the various volc. interpretations clues to guide future implementations in the monitoring network and research investments trained a community of experts to quickly answer to crises RESULTS