Welcome Back! Quickwrite… Describe one relaxing thing and one productive thing you did during winter break. Which was more memorable? Why? Ex: “One relaxing thing I did was __________ and one productive thing I did was __________. I think __________ was more memorable because _____________________.” What do you think you will most likely be doing after the end of this semester? Why? Ex: “After the end of this semester, I think I will most likely __________ because _____________________________.”

Round Robin… starting with the student wearing the warmest clothes at your table (1 min) Describe one relaxing thing and one productive thing you did during winter break. Which was more memorable? Why? Ex: “One relaxing thing I did was __________ and one productive thing I did was __________. I think __________ was more memorable because _____________________.” What do you think you will most likely be doing after the end of this semester? Why? Ex: “After the end of this semester, I think I will most likely __________ because _____________________________.”

Probability

What is Probability? It is a numerical measure between 0 and 1 that describes the likelihood that an event will occur Probabilities closer to 1 indicate that the event is MORE likely to occur while closer to 0 is LESS likely to occur

Probability Assignments

Intuition, Relative Frequency, or Formula? A sports announcer claims that Julia has a 90% chance of breaking the world record in the 100-yard dash

Intuition, Relative Frequency, or Formula? Calvin figures that if he guesses on a true–false question, the probability of getting it right is 0.50

Intuition, Relative Frequency, or Formula? The Right to Health lobby claims that the probability of getting an erroneous medical laboratory report is 0.40, based on a random sample of 200 laboratory reports, of which 80 were erroneous

Practice

Homework Write your own example for each of the different probability assignments Intuition Relative Frequency Formula