Load Forecast and Basecase Development

2 Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM Peak MWAnnual Energy WinterSummeravg MW Actual Forecast BAAGR0.7% 0.9% Per Yr

Load Forecast and Basecase Development 3

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6 Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program » Data repository » Monthly actual peaks/energy » Load projections » Growth rates

7 Load Forecast and Basecase Development Populating the database Populating the database » STL » Non-coincident values Forecast data Forecast data Fitting the load Fitting the load » Conforming vs. Non-conforming » Scrunch factor

Load Forecast and Basecase Development Load level assumptions Load level assumptions » Historical 1-in-2(2012 = 1467 MW) 1-in-2(2012 = 1467 MW) » Proposed 1-in-10(2012 = 1499 MW) 1-in-10(2012 = 1499 MW) » Scenarios: 1-in-20(2012 = 1507 MW) 1-in-20(2012 = 1507 MW) 1-in-50(2012 = 1517 MW) 1-in-50(2012 = 1517 MW) 8