NS4540 Winter Term 2018 Belize: Outlook 2018 Oxford Analytica,Cuba: Economic Woes to Mark Succession Preparation December 13, 2017

Outlook I Prime minister Dean Barrow of the center-right United Democratic Party (UDP) intends to step down before his current term ends in 2020 No clear successor means rivalries within his own party Despite the UDP holding a safe legislative majority government will struggle with A weak economy Growing parliamentary opposition Security risks and Tension over the territorial claims of Guatemala

Outlook II The fiscal deficit of 4.1% in 2016/17 (April-March) will decline, but targets not met Deficits will keep the public debt high – above 80% GDP After GDP growth recovered to 0.7% in 2017, likely to reach 1.5% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019 propelled by tourism Tourism strengthens with improved US and global economy Citing unreliability of supply Belize has ended its PetroCaribe oil financing program with Venezuela

Forecast