Today we are going back in time to help us predict the future!!!

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Presentation transcript:

Today we are going back in time to help us predict the future!!!

Time Series Analysis

The End Result . . . .

Lesson Objectives To understand what Time Series Analysis is To be able to calculate Moving Averages To be able to calculate Variations To evaluate how Time Series Analysis can aid management decision making

Forecasting

Identifying the Trend

Work out the moving average for the below figures: 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1999 2000 300 500 600 550 750 850 1,100 800

Work out the moving average for the below figures: 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1999 2000 300 500 600 550 750 850 1,100 800 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1999 2000 300 500 600 550 750 850 1,100 800 466.7 550 300+500+600 3

The Answer 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1999 2000 300 500 600 550 750 850 1,100 800 467 583 633 733 900 917 1000

TASK TIME Draw the graph (on graph paper): Show sales Show the 3 point moving average

The Graph

Year Sales £000 1 50 2 60 3 48 4 55 5 70 6 7 8 75 9 10 Year Sales £000 1 40 2 30 3 70 4 45 5 35 6 75 7 60 8 9 85 10 11 50 12 90

The Graph

The 4 Point Moving Average

TASK Calculate the 3 and 4 period moving averages for as many years as you can to complete the table Plot the sales figures and both trend lines onto a graph using graph paper. Comment on the relationship between the trend and the actual sales figures.

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sales 100 130 160 175 180 190 220 250 3 period 4 period

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sales 100 130 160 175 180 190 220 250 3 period 155 172 182 187 197 217 4 period

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sales 100 130 160 175 180 190 220 250 4 point 8 Point 4 Point Average 565 645 705 735 740 780 840 1210 1350 1440 1475 1520 1620

Variation Variation = Actual Data – Trend Data

Seasonal Variation

1 9 7 8 2 Q 3 4 115 101 112 80 105 130 140 125

Yr 1 9 7 8 2 Q 3 4 150 175 130 115 125 145 135 100 136 160

Yr 1 9 7 8 2 Q 3 4 250 275 240 255 230 260 220 180 195 170 140 155

Advantages of TSA

Disadvantages of TSA

Evaluate how TSA might assist managerial decision making Quick Question Evaluate how TSA might assist managerial decision making

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