Management of Technology and Development Sanja Marinković, PhD, Associate Professor Office hours: Monday 13-15h, room 301c

The word ‘technology’ has a wider connotation and refers to the collection of production possibilities, techniques, methods and processes by which resources are actually transformed by humans to meet their wants. 2

Technology Hardware Software Brainware Orgware

The role of technology in fostering economic growth of nations and enhancing their industrial competitiveness has been widely recognized, through its influence over industrial productivity. 4

Technology has emerged as the most important resource that contributes directly to socio - economic development. 5

Technology is viewed from various perspectives: as an ‘engine for economic development’, as a ‘strategic resource’, and as a ‘competitive weapon’. 6

Effective management of technology is important - at both national and firm levels. Technology Management (TM), which aims at planning and developing the technological capabilities of an organization or a nation, has now occupied the centre stage of decision-making. 7

Now, TM is an organized and systematic discipline. TM was set into motion when man invented the wheel, except that it was never practiced consciously. Now, TM is an organized and systematic discipline. 8

Issues in TM (interconnected) Technology policy; Technological forecasting and assessment; Technology strategy; Technology transfer; Research and Development (R&D); Process technology and product technology and their continuing improvement; Technology innovation; Technology project management.

Management dilemma: Investing in new technology or keep existing one Should we invest in new technology? Should we buy new technology, or develop the old or both? Which are the sources of new technologies? When, in which moment to invest (time dimension)? Which technology to obtain (type)?

Relations to (technological) change Some organizations create changes, make the change happen Some organizations react to changes that have already happened Some organizations are asking: What has happened?

Is it posible to predict the (technological) changes ?

That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced. * Scientific American, January 2, 1909.

There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home. * Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), in at talk given to a 1977 World Future Society meeting in Boston. This is widely quoted but Olsen claims it is taken out of context, that he was not referring to personal computers but to a household computer that would control the home.

The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most. * IBM, to the eventual founders of Xerox, saying the photocopier had no market large enough to justify production, 1959.

Television won't last because people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night. * Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946.

A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere. * New York Times, 1936.

The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular? * Associates of David Sarnoff responding to the latter's call for investment in the radio in 1921.

Is it posible to predict the (technological) changes ?

Use Of Technology Forecasts The purpose of any type of forecasting and the proper role of the forecaster is to assist the contemporary decision-makers in the choosing of policies and making of plans that are most promising. 21

Technology forecasting Objective consideration of possibilities for development and application of new technologies in the future Predicting expected paths of technological change and expected speed of changes

Use Of Technology Forecasts in the context of Business Firms: Directing NPD efforts as well as improvement of existing products. Enabling better timing for new technology introduction and facilitate strategy formulation. Determination of the priority of R&D projects. 23

Identifying major opportunities and challenges in technological environment – input for technological planning Technology forecasts can be a short, medium or a long-term. Short term forecasts are of usually a year or less, might typically deal with a single technology. Medium-term forecasts might cover a 2-10 year period. Long-term forecasts cover 10-20 years - a time horizon long enough for totally new technologies to emerge. 24

New knowledge The amount of new knowledge grows rapidly When new knowledge is applied, it causes change Forecasting attempts to foretell where change will take us in the future Forecast – In 20 years society could have 1000 times more knowledge

Mega trends Society continues to store more knowledge on the WEB Computers continue to get more capable More people with advanced education People live longer productively

Use Of Technology Forecasts in the National Context: Developing technological competencies so as to meet global competition and international trading imperatives. Planning for creation of sustainable comparative advantages in select technological areas. Planning for the well-being of citizens as a result of technological innovations.

Use Of Technology Forecasts in the context of Business Firms: Establishing technical parameters and performance standards for new products and processes. Supporting NPD efforts as well as improvement of existing products. Enabling better timing for new technology introduction. Facilitate strategy formulation. Defining priorities of research programmes. 28