(10.5) Public Opinion and Polling U.S. Government and Politics

Essential question for this unit What is the role of the people in Government? * This unit is about the Linkage Institutions

Review Voting Trends and Process Reasons for non-voters Sociological factors Psychological factors political efficacy political socialization (family #1 agent of influence) Voting Process Administration of elections - some federal regulations but mostly state responsible

What is public opinion? Politicians/Media members often reference that “the people” want such and such or that “the public” favors this or opposes that. Public opinion is complex enough that it cannot be easily defined. (that does not stop people from trying of course…) Public opinion is those attitudes held by a significant number of people on matters of government and politics. It is the sum of all views.

What is public opinion? Important points Not many issues capture the attention of all - or even nearly all - Americans! Most public issues attract the interest of some people, which might mean little to others. Public opinion only relates to public affairs such as events and issues that concern the people at large. A person’s private thoughts on an issue enter the stream of public opinion only when those thoughts are expressed publicly. This is happening on a more regular basis with the growth of social media!

Public Opinion Influences No one is born with a set of attitudes about government and politics. Our public opinion is formed out of a learning process in multiple ways. Remember - political socialization - the process by which each person acquires his or her political opinions.

Public Opinion Influences Many different agents of political socialization at work in the opinion-shaping process. Some factors do play larger roles. Family influence #1 Early attitudes influence later political views Influence of school Outside school influences such as mass media, peer groups, opinion leaders, historic events and public policy such as the Great Depression. No factor, taken by itself, shapes a person’s opinion on any single issue.

Ways to measure public opinion How often have you heard this phrase: “According to a recent survey . . .”? (especially leading up to an election) Elections and Public Opinion voice of the people expressed through the ballot box Interest groups private organizations that work to shape public policy around certain views and objectives

Ways to measure public opinion The Media Mirrors and Molders of public opinion The Voice of the People mail, phone calls, emails Public Opinion Polls

POLLING

Public Opinion Polls Public opinion polls are one of the most common means of determining people’s attitudes and viewpoints. Public opinion polls = devices that attempt to collect information by asking people questions. The more accurate polls are based on scientific polling techniques. Science of public opinion polls (video clip)

THE MEDIA

How polls are conducted 5 basic steps in administering a poll Define the population to be surveyed Create the sample Prepare valid questions Select and control how the poll will be taken Analyze and report findings to the public

How polls are conducted Sample: a representative slice of the total universe/population. Random Sampling: method of selecting a sample of the population in such a way that every possible sample is possibly selected. (*key technique*) Sampling Error: the level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll

Pollsters are compared to fortune tellers in this cartoon, suggesting that polls are less accurate than crystal balls. Is this criticism accurate? Why or why not?

Poll reliability How good are polls? As a whole the major national polls are fairly reliable. Still, they are far from perfect. Pros/Cons of public opinion polls (Ted-ed Video clip) Unreliability in 2016 polls (Bloomberg Video clip)

Poll reliability Pollsters know that they have difficulty measuring the intensity, stability, and relevance of the public’s opinions. Intensity = strength of a feeling Stability = how permanent of an opinion Relevance = importance of opinion to the person Some critics say pollsters create a “bandwagon effect” (voters want to be with a winner) during elections.

Poll Examples http://www.gallup.com http://www.pewresearch.org/ http://www.rasmussenreports.com https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Conclusions / Takeaways Quick write and report out: Give a summary of how public opinion is measured in the U.S.