Proposed Way Forward for CEOS on GHG Observations Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Proposed Way Forward for CEOS on GHG Observations Mark Dowell, European Commission CEOS Plenary 2018 Agenda Item # 3.6 Brussels, Belgium 17 – 18 October 2018

CEOS CGMS collaboration on GHG Specific Chair Initiative : Laying the foundation for an international CO2 and GHG monitoring system Three specific activities are foreseen for advancing this effort in 2017-2018: Facilitate the completion and follow-on activities of the AC-VC whitepaper on defining an optimum constellation for CO2 and GHG monitoring, including the joint competences of CEOS and CGMS, and in the general framework of the continued implementation of the CEOS Carbon Strategy Advance the relationship with CGMS for an operationally implemented and sustained observation capability. Consider establishing a formal working relationship between CEOS and CGMS as with the successful ongoing relationship on Systematic Observations of ECVs in support of UNFCCC. Place the space segment in the broader context of a fully sustained system for CO2 monitoring. Individual CEOS Agencies have counterparts in their individual countries/regions who have responsibility for Inventories, the required modelling, in- situ infrastructure and the ground segment elements.

COP-23/SBSTA-47

COP-23/SBSTA-47 Considerable support in the RSO negotiations from Japan and EU delegations Especially for Conclusions 9 & 12

Timely inputs to Policy context Global Stock Take 1 Global Stock Take 2 Paris Agreement using inventories of 2026 using inventories of 2021 CO2 Task Force 2015 2017 2021 2023 2026 2028 CO2 Follow-up Report Initial system capacity built up Mission Requirement Document Launch target for Copernicus S-7 constellation

CEOS CGMS Coordination on GHG monitoring - options Continue adhoc collaboration in context of CEOS Carbon Strategy Actions e.g. as-in joint efforts on AC-VC Whitepaper Establish a sub-group/task (with dedicated resources) in context of existing standing WG i.e. Joint WG on Climate Extend the current CEOS Atmospheric Composition Virtual Constellation to be a Joint CEOS-CGMS Virtual Constellation Establish a dedicated Joint WG specifically on Carbon /GHG observations Assess/discuss these different options both within CEOS and CGMS - propose a preferred option

Pros and Cons of Options 2 & 3 Subgroup/Task to Joint WGClimate Option 3 Joint AC-VC Pros The Joint CEOS-CGMS WGClimate already exists, just need to decide on assigning subgroup lead maybe update ToR Existing and strong working relationship with GCOS and UNFCCC/SBSTA May provide basis for longer-term home for CEOS Carbon Strategy Action Will Ensure that the GHG products requirements/improvement process follows same being implemented for other ECVs/CDRs Take advantage of other ECVs associated to the natural Carbon Cycle Could build on existing adhoc collaboration started in context of GHG Whitepaper If focus is primarily on building physical constellation, based on GHG Whitepaper, then competence are within VC Would provide an additional “model” of collaboration between CEOS and CGMS GHG may not be only area of CEOS-CGMS collaboration within AC-VC e.g. Air Quality Cons Enlarges scope/mandate of WGClimate Would need dedicted resources competences for CEOS agencies to WGClimate Would need strong dialogue between WGClimate and AC-VC Concern on creating parallel track with SBSTA and GCOS Risks to remain disconnected to other activities of CEOS Carbon Strategy

Conclusion from CGMS-46 “…CGMS was requested to confirm its interest in pursuing a more structured collaboration with CEOS on GHG monitoring and provide comments or preferences on the options presented. In the discussion it was noted that whilst recognising the technical capabilities of the CEOS AC-VC team and the support it is providing in terms of drafting the White Paper, concerns were raised by several members that it may not be the most suitable entity to lead activities with strategic implications and reporting to various bodies like UNFCCC and SBSTA. It was also noted that JWG Climate has domstrated its ability to take on board complex and heavy tasks and deliver on schedule. Furthermore JWGClimate already has all the reporting lines in place. Whilst having concerns on the workload it was noted that the situation is now improving. …The CGMS Plenary then decided on the following Action: Action: JWGClimate to complete their analysis of the feasibility of establishing a subgroup on CO2/GHG in JWG Climate … Recommendation: CGMS to recommend to the CEOS Chair the establishment of a subgroup within JWGClimate for the coordination of greenhouse gas monitoring activities.”

Possible “Hybrid” Scenario Option 2 GCOS/UNFCCC WMO IG3IS GEO Carbon & GHG Initiatives on Carbon relevant ECVs, input for SBSTA Reporting SBSTA, formal GCOS link Space Agency input to GEO Initiative Joint WGClimate CEOS Carbon Strategy (CCS) WGClimate Task on GHG monitoring Addressing GHG relevant GCOS Actions e.g. T71 CCS Actions for the Atmospheric Domain WGCV ACSG Atmospheric Composition - VC GSICS CGMS representation Joint meetings with WGClimate

Conclusion Conclusions There is an increasingly strong policy demand for coordinated provision of information on GHGs (both from UNFCCC/SBSTA and GCOS) This has strong synergies with the successful existing collaboration between CEOS and CGMS on more traditional Systematic Observations (ECVs, CDRs) The adhoc collaboration between CEOS and CGMS agencies in preparing the draft whitepaper on the GHG Constellation has proved to be effective, and brought complimentary competences to the existing team A number of options are available for a more structured collaboration on GHG monitoring, taking advantage of existing CEOS (and CGMS entities) of these would result in considerable added-value. …

Analysis Since SIT-TW At SIT-TW D. Crisp hosted a side session to discuss how high-level Actions in GHG report could/should be addressed Since SIT-TW J. Schulz and M. Dowell have: mapped activities listed in way forward section of report and, (see suppl. document) investigated necessary changes to WGClimate ToR (see suppl. document) Outcome of analysis: Confirmed, need for multiple “actors” contributing to advancing activities Confirmed, WGClimate dedicated task group is best positioned for activities at interface to external stakeholders Confirmed minimal changes needed to WGClimate ToR

Proposal Create a well identified task within WGClimate addressing GHG monitoring (Action WGClimate to decide how this would be implemented - by SIT-34) WGClimate to details roadmap based on activities from whitepaper + output from Ispra GHG workshop (draft SIT- 34) WGClimate to establish appropriate links, cross- representation, with AC-VC and WGCV ACSG. Relevant CEOS Agencies to dedicate appropriate resources to task Task would also include existing coordination layer for CEOS Carbon Strategy Update of WGClimate ToR (also to be confirmed by CGMS)

Asked to Plenary – for Decision Confirm the interest in pursuing a structured collaboration between CEOS and CGMS in the area Greenhouse Gas observations and monitoring Confirm that the options considered for this collaboration, were appropriate Agree that the proposed solution is appropriate, and that the implications of it's implementation are understood and acceptable Agree that the proposed timeline for implementation is appropriate and that the draft ToR and governance arrangement are acceptable