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Presentation transcript:

Telecom Advisory Services, LLC THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF WI-FI: A GLOBAL VIEW A study commissioned by Wi-Fi Alliance Raul L. Katz Telecom Advisory Services, LLC Berlin, Germany– November 7, 2018

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO ASSESS THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF wi-fi? WORLD EUROPE Residential Use1 800 million households UK: 85% of households France: 83% of households Germany: 80% of households Time on Wi-Fi vs. Cellular2 63% in China 58% in Brazil 51% in Australia 60% in UK 47% in France 62% in Germany Number of hotspots3 12 million commercial 329 million community - based UK: 14 million France: 23 million Germany: 21 million 1 Strategy Analytics; Telecompetitor 2 OpenSignal 3 iPass Wi-Fi Growth Map

THE MEASUREMENT OF ECONOMIC VALUE OF Wi-FI IS A COMPLEX TASK Wi-Fi is used by numerous devices and services In some cases, services are offered as a free good to consumer (how does one quantify the willingness to pay?) The diffusion of innovations relying on Wi-Fi is proceeding at an extremely fast pace, which renders studies obsolete after a few months When we did our first study on unlicensed spectrum value, research on economic value was limited PRIOR STUDIES ON VALUE OF WI-FI IN UNITED STATES $ 132 $ 84 Wi-Fi traffic is growing at 68% per year Wi-Fi households, currently at 63%, are projected to reach 86% by 2017 Thanki (2009) residential Wi-Fi, Hospital Wi-Fi, and RFID in clothing retailers, Milgrom (speed, Wi-Fi offloading, tablets, Cooper (producer benefits of Wi-Fi, residential Wi-Fi All studies acknowledged underestimating value $ 64.6 $ 28.7 $ 24 Source: Compiled by Telecom Advisory Services

Dimension Consumer surplus Producer surplus GDP Contribution WE APPROACHED THE MEASUREMENT OF WI-FI ECONOMIC VALUE BY QUANTIFYING EIGHT EFFECTS Dimension Consumer surplus Producer surplus GDP Contribution 1. Value of free Wi-Fi traffic Benefit to consumers of free Wi‑Fi traffic offered in public sites 2. Value of residential Wi‑Fi Internet access for home usage of devices that lack a wired port (e.g. tablets, smartphones, game consoles) Avoidance of investment in in-house wiring 3. Value of enterprise Wi-Fi Business internet traffic transmitted through Wi-Fi Avoidance of wiring of enterprise buildings 4. Value of cellular off-loading Total cost of ownership (cumulative CAPEX and OPEX) required to accommodate future capacity requirement with Wi-Fi complementing cellular networks 5. Value of locally manufactured Wi-Fi enabled devices Difference between willingness to pay and retail prices Difference between retail price and manufacturing costs for a weighted average of suppliers 6. Value of bridging the digital divide Additional GDP from incremental broadband lines in rural areas 7. Wi-Fi return to speed While speed increase drives consumer surplus, recent research finds economic efficiency spillovers 8. Revenues of Wi-Fi carriers and Wi-Fi based ISPs These revenues would not exist without the availability of unlicensed spectrum

GLOBAL WI-FI ECONOMIC VALUE (2018) WI-FI GLOBAL ECONOMIC VALUE AMOUNTS TO $1.96 TRILLION AND WILL GROW BY 12% ANNUALLY TO REACH $ 3.47 TRILLION BY 2023 GLOBAL WI-FI ECONOMIC VALUE (2018) (in $ billions) $ 3,472 CAGR 12 % $ 1,964 Source: Compiled by Telecom Advisory Services

EUROPE: CONSUMER SURPLUS OF WI-FI (2018) WI-FI TECHNOLOGY GENERATES A CONSUMER SURPLUS OF $105 BILLION IN THE UNITED KINGOM, FRANCE AND GERMANY EUROPE: CONSUMER SURPLUS OF WI-FI (2018) (in $ billions) $ 105 U. K. France Germany Smartphone penetration 93.8 % 80.6 % 95.5 % Average traffic per smartphone per month 7.24 GB 7.87 GB 4.25 GB Off-loading factor 58 % 65 % 48 % Annual home mobile traffic (2018) (MM GB) 5,453 2,922 2,975 Wi-Fi households 75% 83 % 80 % $ 88.2 $ 15.8 $ 0.73 Value of Free Public Wi-Fi Internet access for devices lacking wired port Avoidance of investment in in-house wiring Willingness to pay of Wi-Fi enabled equipment Source: Telecom Advisory Services analysis

EUROPE: PRODUCER SURPLUS OF WI-FI (2018) WI-FI TECHNOLOGY GENERATES A PRODUCER SURPLUS OF $76.9 BILLION IN THE UNITED KINGOM, FRANCE AND GERMANY EUROPE: PRODUCER SURPLUS OF WI-FI (2018) (in $ billions) $ 76.9 U. K. France Germany Wi-Fi business traffic (2018) (MM GB) 4,500 2,701 2,498 CAPEX savings by cellular off-loading ($ billion) $ 6.84 $ 7.40 $ 6.17 Margin of Wi-Fi enabled equipment ($ billion) $ 8.66 $ 6.28 $ 5.16 $ 40.7 $ 20.4 $ 15.8 Wi-Fi Business Internet traffic Inside wiring avoidance CAPEX avoidance by cellular carriers Margins of locally manufactured Wi- Fi enbaled equipment Source: Telecom Advisory Services analysis

EUROPE: WI-FI CONTRIBUTION TO GDP (2018) WI-FI TECHNOLOGY GENERATES A CONTRIBUTION TO GDP OF $11.2 BILLION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM, FRANCE AND GERMANY EUROPE: WI-FI CONTRIBUTION TO GDP (2018) (in $ billions) $ 11.2 U. K. France Germany Incremental Wi-Fi enabled broadband penetration 1.25 % 3.11 % 1.80 % Wi-Fi speed advantage (Mbps) (2018) 9.12 4.6 12.26 Revenues of Wi-Fi carriers ($ billion) (2018) $ 1.22 B $ 0.49 B $ 0.697 B $ 7.2 $ 2.6 $ 2.4 GDP impact of additional broadband lines GDP impact of faster Wi-Fi download speed Revenues of Wi-Fi carriers Source: Telecom Advisory Services analysis

EUROPE: ECONOMIC VALUE OF WI-FI (2018-2023) THE VALUE OF WI-FI IN THE THREE LARGEST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES has reached $ 192 Billion and IS PROJECTED TO GROW at 6.75% per year THROUGH 2023 EUROPE: ECONOMIC VALUE OF WI-FI (2018-2023) (billions) $ 267 CAGR 6.7 % $ 192 Source: Telecom Advisory Services analysis

GDP Contribution ($ Billion) (2018) WI-FI IS ALSO A VERY IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTOR TO EMPLOYMENT: 111,000 IN THE UK, FRANCE, AND GERMANY GDP contribution Employment Additional broadband lines Faster wireless networks Development of a Wi-Fi service provider industry Direct jobs (telecommunications industry, telecommunications equipment manufacturing) Indirect jobs (suppliers to the telecommunications industries, such as consruction, business services) Induced jobs (triggered by consumption of direct and indirect jobs) GDP Contribution ($ Billion) (2018) Employment (2018) Country GDP United Kingdom $ 1.52 France $ 3.88 Germany $ 5.82 Country Jobs United Kingdom 17,000 France 29,000 Germany 65,000 NOTE: According to the ITU, FTEs for telecommunications operators in the three countries is 415,000 Source: Telecom Advisory Services analysis

Investment assumes savings derived from Wi-Fi technology 5G DEPLOYMENT WILL INCREASE THE VALUE OF CELLULAR OFF-LOADING The upcoming flexible, radio-neutral 5G environment will be intrinsically supported by the next wave of 802.11 Wi- Fi standards (802.11n/ac, 802.11ax, WiGig), and short-range wireless technologies operating in unlicensed bands Announced 5G investments (UK:$56.94 billion ; Japan: $ 45.5 billion ; Germany: $ 43.9 billion) Investment assumes savings derived from Wi-Fi technology Investment without Wi-Fi – Investments announced = Wi-Fi CAPEX savings Wi-Fi Economic value as resulting from 5G deployments (2023) Wi-Fi Economic Value (CAPEX) Wi-Fi Economic Value (CAPEX & OPEX) United Kingdom $ 2.12 billion $ 8.12 billion France $ 3.74 billion $ 14.31 billion Germany $ 3.07 billion $ 11.75 billion Source: Telecom Advisory Services analysis

THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF THIS EVIDENCE ARE SELF-EXPLANATORY Wi-Fi spectrum, as an enabling resource, is a critical driver of innovation and value creation These effects, as proven through the evidence generated in the study, support a policy that preserves Wi-Fi spectrum Furthermore, given the exponential growth in utilization of technologies such as Wi-Fi, it is reasonable to consider the potential expansion of the amount of Wi-Fi spectrum   THE TRENDS THE RISKS Wi-Fi traffic in the Germany is growing at 19% annually Wi-Fi households, currently at 80%, are forecast to reach 93% by 2023 Smartphone penetration, currently at 95%, is estimated to reach 99% million by 2023 Wi-Fi Business traffic is growing at 24% annually Average Wi-Fi speed does not increase, but stays at current levels (26.50 Mbps), erasing $ 132 billion of the Wi-Fi speed cumulative return over five years Wi-Fi becomes bottleneck in ultra-broadband households Difficulty in migrating to 5G Limited availability of spectrum to foster new innovative applications Consider adding a bullet in the trends section about Internet of Things.

Telecom Advisory Services, LLC For further information please contact: Raul Katz, raul.katz@teleadvs.com, +1 (845) 868-1653 Telecom Advisory Services LLC 139 West 82nd Street Suite 6D New York, New York 10024 USA