Chapter 4 Probability 4.2 Basic Concepts of Probability 4.3 Addition Rule 4.4 Multiplication Rule: Basics 4.5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and Conditional Probability

From this we can do the following: Goal of Probability Using Math to model certain situations, we seek to find the likelihood of a certain event happening (or not happening) From this we can do the following: Using known data of a certain event, we determine the likelihood of it occurring. (and how likely our guess is correct or incorrect)

Important Terminology Event, Simple event, Sample Space pg.139 Notation for probability pg.139-140 Values of a probability pg.144 Complement of an event pg.144 Actual odds against / in favor, etc. pg.147 Compound event pg.152 P(A or B), P(A and B) pg.152 False Positive, True Negative (table 4-1) pg.153 Disjoint (mutually exclusive) events pg.154 P(A and then B) (when A occurs first, then B occurs) pg.159 Independent & Dependent events pg.162 “at least one” & Conditional Probability pg.161

Important Concepts Venn Diagrams pg.155–156 Addition rule pg.154 Rule of Complementary Events pg.156 Multiplication Rule pg.162 Conditional Probability pg.173 Rare Event Rule pg.138 Rule of Large Numbers pg.141 The 5% Guideline pg.164