DSM2 Calibration: Optimization Weighting Scheme Using Management Objectives Marianne Guerin.

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Presentation transcript:

DSM2 Calibration: Optimization Weighting Scheme Using Management Objectives Marianne Guerin

Observation: DSM2 is Used as a Delta Management Tool Define calibration metric in operational terms: First: Define which targets - stage, flow, EC - are important to Delta water management Then: Sensitivity analysis and parameter correlation Next: Define objective function and specify weights ‘Rough’ Calibration Selected time spans: iterative fine calibration to minimize model error

Minimize: Root Mean Square Error Weights normalize different observation types (units, magnitudes, data accuracy) Prioritize: Total weight by observation type: (Σwi, Σwj, Σwk) on stage (s), flow and velocity (f), and EC (c) Individual weights within each category

Stage South Delta Ag. Barriers Western model boundary HORB ? Sac R. Boundary?

Flow or Velocity Old and Middle Rivers QWEST VAMP response DCC response

EC Compliance Points West Delta: Jersey Point, Emmaton South Delta: Old R. nr Middle R., Tracy Rd. Bridge, Brandt Bridge 3. Interior Delta: SF Mokelumne, SJR San Andreas X2 ? 1. 5. Export Area: West Canal at CCFB, DMC at Tracy PP 2. 4. Contra Costa Canal, SJR at Antioch

Calibration Objective Function – Defining a Weighting Scheme Operational targets: Stage Flow Salinity targets: EC X2 Quantify ‘goodness of fit’ By-hand: post-processing Automated: needs software Purchase/public domain Develop Zonation to simplify Benefit to ‘Management Approach’: ‘Peer-review’-able body of information Primary use of DSM2 Clarifies reliability of model-based management decisions