Twentieth Century & Future Trends

N.H. Surface Air Temperature (IPCC TAR)

Surface Air Temperature (IPCC TAR)

Surface Air Temperature (IPCC TAR)

Trends in Temperature (IPCC TAR)

Trends in Temperature (IPCC TAR)

Trends in Temperature (IPCC TAR)

Seasonal Temperature Trends (IPCC TAR)

Trends in Diurnal Temperature Range 1950-1993 Non-urban stations only (IPCC TAR)

Diurnal Temperature Range vs. Cloud Cover cloud cover - solid DTR (˚C) - dashed (IPCC TAR)

Lower Troposphere Trends (IPCC TAR)

Lower Stratosphere Trends (IPCC TAR)

Glacier Retreat (IPCC TAR)

N.H. Snow Cover Extent (IPCC TAR)

N.H. Sea Ice Extent (IPCC TAR)

S.H. Sea Ice Extent (IPCC TAR)

Arctic Sea Ice Thickness (IPCC TAR)

Precipitation Trends (IPCC TAR)

Precipitation Trends (IPCC TAR)

Surface Vapor Pressure Change (1975 - 1995) (IPCC TAR)

Changes in Extremes (IPCC TAR)

Change in Precipitation (“Heavy” = above 90th percentile; periods > 50 yr.) (IPCC TAR)

Change in Annual Max{5-d Prec.} (period ~ 1946 - 1999) (IPCC TAR)

Change in Annual Max{5-d Prec.} (period ~ 1946 - 1999) (IPCC TAR)

Changes in Hurricanes U.S. Landfall Hurricanes Category 3-5 in North Atlantic (IPCC TAR)

Changes in Tornadoes Reported F3-F5 Tornadoes in U.S. (Dashed line = based on storm damage reports) (IPCC TAR)

(IPCC TAR)

(IPCC TAR)

NH Reconstructed T vs. Candidate Forcings NH Temperature Solar Log(CO2) Correlation of 200-yr running average NH temperature vs. forcings Dust Veil Index (Mann et al. 1998)

Performance of GCMs - Control Climates (IPCC TAR)

Performance of GCMs - Control Climates Note: 50% of earth’s surface is between ±30˚ latitude (IPCC TAR)

Performance of GCMs - Control Climates (IPCC TAR)

Performance of GCMs - Control Climates (IPCC TAR)

Performance of GCMs - Control Climates Note: 50% of earth’s surface is between ±30˚ latitude (IPCC TAR)

Performance of GCMs - Control Climates (0.5  ≥ 50% of 15 models give ice at location) (IPCC TAR)

“Natural Variability” vs. Obs. Variability GCMs with no forcing changes Observed (IPCC TAR)

Global Model T vs. Obs. T Ensemble of GCMs with solar and volcanic forcing changes (IPCC TAR)

Global Model T vs. Obs. T Ensemble of GCMs with GHG, O3 and aerosol forcing changes (IPCC TAR)

Global Model T vs. Obs. T Ensemble of GCMs with natural and anthropogenic forcing changes (IPCC TAR)

Spatial Distribution of T Trends (IPCC TAR)

Spatial Distribution of T Trends Ensemble mean of 5 GCMs (R30 resolution) (IPCC TAR)

Spatial Distribution of T Trends Grey: Observed trends within the “natural variability” of the R30 GCM (IPCC TAR)

Spatial Distribution of T Trends Grey: Observed trends within the “natural variability” of the R30 GCM (IPCC TAR)

Change in Daily max{T} for June-July-August (RegCM2 simulation: 2040s - 1990s) ˚C Pan et al. (2004)

(RegCM2 simulation: 2040s - 1990s) Change in Daily max{T} (RegCM2 simulation: 2040s - 1990s) Pan et al. (2004)

Change in LLJ Frequency [%] Change in Soil Moisture [mm] RegCM2 simulation: 2040s - 1990s Pan et al. (2004)

Changes in Precipitation, Evaporation, Sensible Heat Flux RegCM2 simulation: 2040s - 1990s Pan et al. (2004)

Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1 - Very rapid economic growth; global population peaks ~2050; rapid introduction of new, efficient technologies; substantial reduction of social/econ. differences A2 - Very heterogeneous world; continuously increasing population; fragmented introduction of new technologies B1 - Very rapid economic growth; global population peaks ~2050; transition to service/information-based economy; clean, resource-efficient technologies B2 - Very heterogeneous world; continuously increasing population (lower than A2); fragmented introduction of new technologies; oriented toward environmental protection and social equity (Also - IS92 scenarios - older)

Global T Change: A2 & B2 (IPCC TAR)

Global Precip. Change: A2 & B2 (IPCC TAR)

Temperature Change: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990) Multi-model ave. T (colors), range (blue), ave. T/SDEV (green) (IPCC TAR)

Temperature Change: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990) Multi-model ave. T (colors), range (blue), ave. T/SDEV (green) (IPCC TAR)

Precipitation Change [%]: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990) Multi-model ave. P (colors), range (red), ave. P/SDEV (green) (IPCC TAR)

Precipitation Change [%]: (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990) Multi-model ave. P (colors), range (red), ave. P/SDEV (green) (IPCC TAR)

(IPCC TAR)

(IPCC TAR)

Twentieth Century & Future Trends