Future Extreme Heat in The Denver Metro Area Presentation to Denver Regional Health Equity and Climate Summit Stephen Saunders The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization November 1, 2018

Previous Statewide Projections Part I. Previous Statewide Projections

By Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado, for Colorado Water Conservation Board (2014) Statewide Focused primarily on one possible emissions future Focused on one time frame Average temperatures

WWA Projected Statewide Average Temperature Change

Rocky Mountain Climate Organization figure Illustrating WWA Temperature Projections

Detailed Denver Projections Part II. Detailed Denver Projections

“Future Extreme Heat in the Denver Metro Area” (2017) Much more detailed By RMCO, for Denver Department of Environmental Health Based on earlier RMCO reports on extreme heat in Larimer and Boulder counties, for Colorado Department of Local Affairs Purposes: (1) foundation for preparedness planning, (2) support for emission reductions

All 4 emission scenarios

Climate Models High emissions: 20 models Medium-high: 12 models Medium-low: 19 models Very low: 12 models

Climate Projections 29 million individual projections, covering: Daily daytime high temperatures Daily nighttime low temperatures 67 emissions scenario/model pairings 150 years

Future time periods 2020-2039 2040-2059 2060-2079 2080-2099

Extreme heat values Focus on days 100° and hotter But: dozens of different measures analyzed

Historic context: Actual trends in 100° Days

Part III. What do we do?

Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study (2015) “Although rarely discussed in Colorado, heat is perhaps the most devastating climate-related public health impact in the country.” Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study (2015)

In Chicago in 1995, a heat wave killed 739 people. “. . . the collective failings that contributed to the death toll are now well-documented: a city caught off guard, social isolation, a power grid that couldn't meet demand and a lack of awareness on the perils of brutal heat.” (Chicago Tribune)

“Stop being so paranoid,” he said. Then he hung up the phone. In the 1995 heat wave, the emergency management chief did not activate additional ambulances or off-duty personnel because he did not believe it was a crisis. “Stop being so paranoid,” he said. Then he hung up the phone. Eric Klinenberg, Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago

Centers for Disease Control and prevention: “Heat-related mortality is preventable.” After new preparedness planning in Chicago, a similar Chicago heat wave in 2012 led to only a few deaths.

Types of actions needed Preparedness actions to address local impacts Emission reductions to keep impacts manageable

Follow up? Stephen Saunders saunders@rockymountainclimate.org www.rockymountainclimate.org/