Lecture #5: Public Opinion and Political Participation July 19, 2017 Lecture #5: Public Opinion and Political Participation

Midterm Midterm next Monday Should take about an hour Mix of multiple-choice and short answer Review guide will go up tonight.

Public Opinion and Political Participation What ought to be the relationship between “public opinion” and public policy? Are the people competent to govern themselves? Moral/psychological? Do they possess the virtues requisite to self-government? Intellectual? Do they know what they need to know?

Political Socialization Social learning theory – idea that people emulate those they admire and avoiding the ideas of those they don’t. Transfer theory – people carry over ideas from one setting to another Cognitive development theory – understanding depends upon stages of mental development.

Agents of Socialization Family School Peers Others? Where did you become acquainted with political opinions?

Participation Following politics and voting Giving money Contacting officials - lobbying Political protest Marches and rallies Boycotts Picketing Political violence Riots Crimes Civil Disobedience

Civil Disobedience as Protest Much of “politics” happens outside the rules. How do we know when such politics is legitimate? Only citizens can vote, but is it true that only citizens can be a part of politics?

Exit Polls Why bother to vote? 2008: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1 2012: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president 2014: http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/race/house#exit-polls Voting is somewhat predictable based upon: Race Gender Geographic location Religiosity Income Why bother to vote?

Paradox of Voting Strictly speaking, it is not completely rational to bother voting. Your vote has almost no chance of actually effecting the outcome of an election. So, why bother? There is really no sensible, selfish reason to bother voting. It is done out of a sense of duty, community spirit, and social pressure. And, that’s a good thing!

Voter Turnout over Time

Voter Turnout by State

Who votes matters? Hotly contested issue Originally white, male property owners over 25 12th Amendment (1804) - rules on electoral college 14th Amendment (1868) – who is a citizen? 15th Amendment (1870) – All races can vote 19th Amendment (1920) – All sexes can vote 23rd Amendment (1961) – DC Residents can vote 24th Amendment (1964) - No poll taxes 26th Amendment (1971) – 18 year olds can vote

Prop 187 1994 Ballot Initiative to prohibit illegal immigrants from using state services: No healthcare No public education Passed 59%-41% Passed even in Los Angeles County Latinos opposed Prop. 187 (27%-73%)

So How Did Proposition 187 Pass? 1990: Latinos were 26% of CA’s population, 15% of eligible voters, 10% of registered voters, but just 6% of actual voters in June primary. 1994: Latinos were about 28% of CA’s population, but only 9% of the electorate. After 1994, Latinos in CA mobilized. Turnout of newly registered Latinos went from 43% in 1994 to 67% in 1996. Dem vote share of Latinos went from 52%-40% to 73%-21%.

A Sleeping Giant Wakes Up

2012 Presidential Election

Only White Men

Only White Men and Women

Only Men

No Young Voters (Under 24)

2012 Presidential Election