Simple Linear Regression

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Presentation transcript:

Simple Linear Regression

Regression Analysis Regression Analysis A statistical procedure used to develop an equation showing how two or more variables are related. Process: Taking an initial look at data to see if there is a relationship. Creating an equation to help us estimate/predict. Assessing whether equation fits the sample data. Use Statistical Inference to see if there is a significant relationship. Predict with the equation. Regression Analysis does not prove a cause and effect relationship.

Continue… Simple Regression Linear Regression Simple Linear Regression Regression analysis involving one independent variable (x) and one dependent variable (y). Linear Regression Regression analysis in which relationships between the independent variables and the dependent variable are approximated by a straight line. Simple Linear Regression Relationship between one independent variable and one dependent variable that is approximated by a straight line, with slope and intercept. Multiple Linear Regression Regression analysis involving two or more independent variables to create straight line model/equation. Curvilinear Relationships Relationships that are not linear.

Simple Liner Regression Model with Population Parameters Simple Linear Regression Model: y = β0 + β1x + ε y = Predicted value β1 = Slope x = Value you put into the equation to try and predict the y value. β0 = Y-Intercept ε = Error Value

Coefficient of Correlation (rxy) Measure the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two quantitative variables. Investigate if there is a relationship: We will have a number answer that indicates the strength and direction: Always a number between -1 and 1. 0 = No correlation Near 0.5 of -0.5 = moderate correlation Near -1 or 1 = strong correlation Note: Correlation DOES NOT imply causation

Coefficient of Determination ( 𝒓 𝟐 ) r^2 results in a number between 0 and 1. The closer to 1, the better the fit of the estimated equation to the X-Y sample data points. r^2 = 1 all X-Y sample markers fall on the estimated regression line. The proportion of the variability in the dependent variable (y) that is explained by the estimated regression equation/line.

Confidence Levels Confidence levels often used to indicate how the sample represents the population as a whole Confidence level – if you were to conduct the survey multiple times, how often you would expect to get similar results. Confidence interval – a range of means that you can be X% confident that it contains the true population mean.

Assumptions Regression function correctly specified (e.g. linear) Conditional distribution of Y is normal distribution Conditional distribution of Y has constant standard deviation Observation on Y are statistically independent Normality of the error distribution Constance variance of errors

Residuals = Particular Y value – Predicted Y Value Sometimes the Equation Underpredicts Sometimes the Equation Overpredicts