Realities, Challenges, and Promises - Promoting the Next Generation of English Teachers in China Jun Liu May 18, 2007 Beijing, China

Did You Know . . .

The 25% of the population in China with the highest IQ’s . . .

Is greater than the total population of North America.

China will soon become the number one English speaking country in the world.

If you took every single job in the U.S. today and shipped it to China . . .

China would still have a labor surplus.

The U.S. Department of Labor estimates that today’s learner will have 10-14 jobs . . .

By the age of 38.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor . . .

1 out of 4 workers today is working for a company they have been employed by for less than one year.

More than 1 out of 2 are working for a company they have worked for for less than five years.

According to former Secretary of Education Richard Riley . . .

The top 10 in-demand jobs in 2010 didn’t exist in 2004.

We are currently preparing students for jobs that don’t yet exist . . .

Using technologies that haven’t been invented . . .

In order to solve problems we don’t even know are problems yet.

Did you know . . .

We are living in exponential times.

There are over 2.7 billion searches performed on Google each month.

To whom were these questions addressed B.G.? (Before Google)

Did you know . . .

The number of text messages sent and received every day exceeds the population of the planet.

There are about 540,000 words in the English language . . .

About 5 times as many as during Shakespeare’s time.

More than 3,000 new books are published . . .

Daily.

It’s estimated that a week’s worth of New York Times . . .

Contains more information than a person was likely to come across in a lifetime in the 18th century.

It’s estimated that 1. 5 exabytes (that’s 1 It’s estimated that 1.5 exabytes (that’s 1.5 x 1018) of unique new information will be generated worldwide this year.

That’s estimated to be more than in the previous 5,000 years.

The amount of new technical information is doubling every 2 years.

That means for a student starting a four-year technical or college degree . . .

Half of what they learn in their first year of study will be outdated by their third year of study.

It’s predicted to double every 72 hours by 2010.

Now you know . . .

It is not easy to be a teacher in this information age.

It is even more difficult to be a language educator, because

Language Education is affected by multiple factors, such as political, economic, and educational.

Table 1: Real GDP Growth 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 World 4.17 1.49 2.15 2.62 3.87 3.41 3.84 3.54 Western Europe 3.88 1.74 1.24 1.19 2.35 1.73 2.59 2.29 Eastern Europe 6.29 4.04 3.8 5.67 6.65 5.42 5.94 5.58 North America 0.87 1.69 2.45 3.85 3.18 3.37 2.91 Latin America & Caribbean 3.97 0.4 0.32 1.77 5.57 4.06 4.48 4 Asia Pacific 4.75 2.25 3.17 4.27 5.25 5.62 5.39 Australasia 3.31 2.3 4.19 3.14 3.62 2.47 2.87 3.27 Africa and Middle East 4.64 0.77 5.85 3.9 4.05 4.01 3.75

Table 2: Real GDP growth in some main countries Real GDP growth S1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(f) France 4 1.8 1.1 2 1.2 2.4 Germany 3.1 -0.2 0.9 United Kingdom 3.8 2.1 2.7 3.3 1.9 Russia 10 5.1 4.7 7.3 7.2 6.4 6.5 Canada 5.2 2.9 USA 3.7 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.9 3.2 3.4 China 8.4 8.3 9.1 10.1 10.2

Real GDP growth in Asian countries in particular Real GDP growth S1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(f) Hong Kong, China 10 0.6 1.8 3.2 8.6 7.3 6 India 5.3 4.1 4.3 7.2 8 8.5 8.3 Indonesia 5.4 3.6 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.6 5.2 Japan 2.9 0.4 0.1 2.3 2.6 2.7 Malaysia 8.9 0.3 4.4 5.5 Philippines 4.9 6.2 5 Singapore -2.3 4 8.7 6.4 6.9 South Korea 3.8 7 3.1 4.7 Taiwan 5.8 -2.2 4.2 3.4 6.1 Thailand 2.2 Vietnam 6.8 7.1 7.8 8.4

Table 3:Exports in some main countries historic - US$ mn 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Germany 550150.1 571359 612598.5 751371.8 911583.2 977824 USA 781918 729100.4 693103 724771 819051.9 907157 China 249203 266098 325591 437899 593439 724008.19 Japan 479249.3 403496.2 416726.3 471818 565675 594905 France 298116.6 294915.9 308340.6 361993.7 417272.4 436933 Italy 239886 244210.2 254096.8 299412 353434.2 373451.9 United Kingdom 282838.6 268578 276299.3 306533.6 341595.8 371370.1 Russia 105566 101886 107302 135930 183209 243572 Brazil 55085.6 58222.65 60361.8 73084.13 96475.3 118308.45 India 42398.66 43273 49312 57336.4 74395.75 99757.8

Figure: Internet top ten languages

Table 4: Top Ten Languages Used in the Web Percentage of Users Number of Users Internet Penetration Internet Growth World Population English 29.70% 322,600,837 28.70% 135.20% 1,125,664,397 Chinese 13.30% 144,301,513 10,8 % 346.70% 1,340,767,863 Japanese 7.90% 86,300,000 67.20% 83.30% 128,389,000 Spanish 7.50% 81,729,671 18.70% 231.10% 437,502,257 German 5.40% 58,854,682 61.30% 113.20% 95,982,043 French 4.60% 49,660,498 13.00% 307.10% 381,193,149 Portuguese 3.10% 34,064,760 14.80% 349.60% 230,846,275 Korean 32,372,000 45.80% 78.00% 73,945,860 Italian 2.70% 28,870,000 48.80% 118.70% 59,115,261 Russian 2.20% 23,700,000 16.50% 664.50% 143,682,757 TOP TEN 79.50% 863,981,961 21.50% 166.70% 4,017,088,863 Rest 20.50% 222,268,942 9.00% 500.00% 2,482,608,197 WORLD TOTAL 100.00% 1,086,250,903 16.70% 200.90% 6,499,697,060

Table 5:Internet users and population statistics for Asia REGION Population ( 2006 Est. ) Pop. of World Internet Users Usage Use Growth Asia Only 3,667,774,066 56.40% 387,593,457 10.60% 35.50% 239.10% Rest of the World 2,831,922,994 43.60% 704,137,404 24.90% 64.50% 185.40% WORLD TOTAL 6,499,697,060 100.00% 1,091,730,861 16.80% 202.40%

Table 6: Asia internet usage and population (1) ( 2006 Est.) Internet Users (Year 2000) Latest Data Penetration in Asia Use Growth China 1,306,724,067 22,500,000 132,000,000 10.10% 34.10% 486.7% Hong Kong 7,054,867 2,283,000 4,878,713 69.20% 1.30% 113.7% India 1,112,225,812 5,000,000 40,000,000 3.60% 10.60% 700.0% Indonesia 221,900,701 2,000,000 18,000,000 8.10% 4.80% 800.0% Japan 128,389,000 47,080,000 86,300,000 67.20% 22.80% 83.3% Korea, South 50,633,265 19,040,000 33,900,000 67.00% 9.00% 78.0% Malaysia 27,392,442 3,700,000 11,016,000 40.20% 2.90% 197.7%

Asia internet usage and population (2) ( 2006 Est.) Internet Users (Year 2000) Latest Data Penetration in Asia Use Growth Pakistan 163,985,373 133,900 10,500,000 6.40% 2.80% 7741.7% Philippines 85,712,221 2,000,000 7,820,000 9.10% 2.10% 291.0% Singapore 3,601,745 1,200,000 2,421,000 67.20% 0.60% 101.8% Taiwan 22,896,488 6,260,000 13,800,000 60.30% 3.60% 120.4% Thailand 66,527,571 2,300,000 8,420,000 12.70% 2.20% 266.1% Vietnam 83,944,402 200,000 14,210,244 16.90% 7005.1% TOTAL 3,667,774,066 114,303,000 387,593,457 10.60% 100.00% 239.1%

English Education in China One billion EFL learners in 2000 and will double in 2010 300 million EFL learners in China spending $60 billion a year

How many teachers are needed to teach English in China? If one teacher teaches 100 students, then there needs about 3 million EFL teacher in China, and 6 million in 2010.

Who is going to teach English? Those who are learning English in primary schools will take over the teaching of English to the next generation of learners in the next 10 to 15 years.

Market Opportunities Higher disposable income More spending on child education More emphasis on English communication skills beyond exams Lack of stimulating, convenient and affordable environment Better Internet infrastrucure

How can future teachers be trained? Completely different ways Self-training On-line training Side-training Global training

But, there needs the following: Curriculum development Pedagogical innovations Content based instruction Communicative competence Learner autonomy

Ten Challenges Skills training 2. Motivation 3. Grammar 4. Methods 5. World Englishes 6. Critical practice 7. Disciplinary collaboration 8. Strategy training 9. Starting age 10. Alternative assessment

So… The future is in your hands.