GLOBAL FIREARMS THREATS & ISSUES Ambassador Dr Ugljesa Ugi Zvekic Prepared on the basis of the Small Arms Survey materials

Small Arms and Light Weapons Definition by the International Tracing Instrument Small arms: revolvers, pistols, rifles, carbines, assault rifles, sub-machine guns, light machine guns Light Weapons: heavy machine guns, grenade launches, portable anti-tank and anti-craft guns, portable anti-tank missles and mortals of less then 100 mm calibre “Any man-portable lethal weapon that expels or launches, is designed to expel or launch, or may be readily converted to expel or launch a shot, bullet or projectile by the action of an explosive, excluding antique small arms and light weapons or their replicas” (UNGA, 2005,para.4)

‘non-conflict’ deaths = 90% of total Armed violence: ‘non-conflict’ deaths = 90% of total Source: Global Burden of Armed Violence, 2011

x 526,000 people die violently each year Average annual death rates per 100,000, 2004-2009; Source: Global Burden of Armed Violence, 2011

Global distribution: a largely civilian arsenal Contact: AKa Figure based on RN 9. Illustrates the importance of civilian holdings. Source: Small Arms Survey

Global distribution: excluding the US Same sources, but excluding the US. Shows a more balanced distribution, although civilians remain the largest category. Source: Small Arms Survey

Who has them? Global distribution At least 875 million firearms worldwide civilian (74%) gangs & other armed groups (1%) armed forces (23%) police forces (3%) The Small Amrs Survey estimates there are at least 875 million firearms worldwide Most of these are in the hands of civilians Source: Small Arms Survey

Who has them? Authorized trade At least USD 8.5 billion per year Small arms (1,662m) Light weapons (811m) Parts (1,428m) Accessories (350m) Ammunition (4,266m) We estimate that the annual trade in small arms is around 8.5 billion USD Most of this – almost half – is made up of ammunition sales Ammo, parts and accessories are included in the calculation NOTE this reflects the AUTHORIZED trade. We do not have figures on the illicit trade in SALW since it is, by its very nature, not documented Source: Small Arms Survey

Authorized transfers Now I will turn briefly to the authorized trade, and specifically our 4-year study on international transfers in small arms, light weapons and their parts, accessories and ammunition. The purpose of the study, which was launched in 2008, was to revise Small Arms Survey’s $4 billion estimate for the annual value of the small arms trade through a comprehensive assessment of existing data on international transfers, including sources not used in the compilation of our original estimate, including the UN Arms Register, government procurement notices, and data obtained directly from governments. So, drawing on this bigger pool of data, we were able to capture more of the trade – and capture it more accurately - than in our previous estimate. Estimates based on this data are in the far left column on documented transfers. However, even with the additional data sources, the trade in certain commodities (such as light weapons ammunition) and transfers between certain countries and regions (such as the Near East and much of Africa) remains opaque, remains undocumented. To account for these transfers, we developed an estimation model, iterations of which we’ve used throughout the study. Estimates generated using this model are listed in the middle column. Together, these estimates give us an estimated annual value for the international trade of $8.5 billion – more than double our previous estimate of $4 billion. The difference is explained by both an absolute growth in the trade in certain items and better data and estimation techniques. Source: Small Arms Survey 2012

Top exporters ■ Austria ■ Germany ■ Spain ■ Belgium ■ Israel ■ Sweden ■ Brazil ■ Italy ■ Switzerland ■ Canada ■ Japan ■ Turkey ■ China ■ Norway ■ United Kingdom ■ Czech Rep. ■ Russian Fed. ■ United States ■ France ■ South Korea

Major exporters (not including “top” exporters) CCCPA SALW Course. January 2015 Major exporters (not including “top” exporters) ■ Argentina ■ India ■ Portugal ■ Australia ■ Iran ■ Romania ■ Bosnia/Herz. ■ Lithuania ■ Saudi Arabia ■ Bulgaria ■ Luxembourg ■ Serbia ■ Croatia ■ Mexico ■ Singapore ■ Cyprus ■ Montenegro ■ Slovakia ■ Denmark ■ Netherlands ■ South Africa ■ Finland ■ North Korea ■ Taiwan ■ Greece ■ Pakistan ■ Thailand ■ Hungary ■ Philippines ■ Ukraine ■ Poland ■ UAE

Top importers ■ Australia ■ Germany ■ South Korea ■ Canada ■ Italy ■ Spain ■ Cyprus ■ Japan ■ Thailand ■ Egypt ■ Pakistan ■ Turkey ■ France ■ Saudi Arabia ■ United Kingdom ■ United States

MILITARY SPENDNGS 2017 Total spendings: 1 MILITARY SPENDNGS 2017 Total spendings: 1.739 billion USD Biggest Investors in Arms USA RUSSIA CHINA INDIA SAUDI ARABIA in EU: UK Fr Germ

Global trends, 2001-2011 Original title of the figure in the chapter: ‘Changes in the value of the global small arms trade based on UN Comtrade (USD billion*), 2001–11’ By our calculation, according to the UN Comtrade, the value of the global trade in small arms and light weapons almost doubled over a ten year period (between 2001 and 2011) (from USD 2.380 billion in 2001 to USD 4.634 billion in 2011) This trend is broken down into the different categories… Source: Small Arms Survey 2014

Global trends, 2001-2011 In this chart we see the breakdown for six categories of weapons. It illustrates that the category of small arms ammunition saw the greatest increase—a hike of 205 per cent—between 2001 and 2011 (from USD 468 million to USD 1.43 billion). (p. 115) We should also note that the increase could also be attributable (in part) to increased reporting on the part of states. Source: Small Arms Survey 2014

EXEMPT FROM CONTROL TRAFFICKING PROLFERATION LOSS CORRUPTION

Problems Small arms proliferation: Fuels crime and conflict Undermines development Weakens government Other problems associated with small arms Undermine development Hamper peace and humanitarian operations Weaken governments’ abilities to function Threaten civil aviation Lead to detrimental long-term societal changes Facilitate production of craft weapons

A trafficker’s perspective http://www.slideshare.net/ISN_Zurich/adventures-of-a-wouldbe-arms-dealer

A trafficker’s perspective Blank end-user certificates can be purchased

A trafficker’s perspective Small arms ammunition is plentiful and cheap

A trafficker’s perspective Transport can be arranged

A trafficker’s perspective Potential profits are attractive, while risks remain slight

Sources of proliferation State collapse during war Weapons recycled from past wars State transfer to non-state actors and militias Support for foreign armed groups Loss and theft from national stockpiles [Corruption and ill-discipline among state security forces]

Stockpile diversion 76 million surplus military small arms Countries more likely to export than destroy surplus Surplus ammunition key in illicit trade Low cost to improve accounting, physical security, monitoring, and destruction

Loss of state stockpiles Photos Courtesy Mines Advisory Group

Transparency Barometer ■ Reviews reporting practices of 55 major exporters: ▪ 7 categories ▪ 43 criteria ■ Period reviewed: 2001-2012 ■ Sets realistic goals and expectations Source: Small Arms Survey 2014

Transparency Barometer 2012: ‘Top 10’ & ‘Bottom 10’ lists ■ Most Transparent 1. Switzerland 2. United Kingdom 3. Romania 4. Serbia 5. Germany, Netherlands (2 tied) 7. Belgium 8. Denmark 9. Italy 10. Spain ■ Least Transparent 1. Iran, North Korea, UAE (3 tied) 4. South Africa 5. Saudi Arabia 6. Russian Federation 7. Singapore 8. China 9. Taiwan, Cyprus, Brazil (3 tied) Source: Small Arms Survey 2014

Corruption and ill-discipline among state security forces ■ rental of weapons ■ sale of ammunition ■ poor stockpile management ■ needed security sector reform

LESS TRANSPRENCY MORE CORRUPTION A Dangerous Liaison Transparency Barometer (TB): Small Arms Survey Corruption Perception Index (CPI): Transparency International

Small Arms Survey 2012 Moving Targets Small Arms Survey (Geneva) www.smallarmssurvey.org Moving Targets