Shidan Wang, BS, Lin Yang, MD, Bo Ci, BS, Matthew Maclean, BS, David E

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Development and Validation of a Nomogram Prognostic Model for SCLC Patients Shidan Wang, BS, Lin Yang, MD, Bo Ci, BS, Matthew Maclean, BS, David E. Gerber, MD, Guanghua Xiao, PhD, Yang Xie, PhD Journal of Thoracic Oncology Volume 13, Issue 9, Pages 1338-1348 (September 2018) DOI: 10.1016/j.jtho.2018.05.037 Copyright © 2018 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Nomogram to calculate risk score and predict survival probability. (A) Race includes black (B), white (W) and other (O). Treatment types include: no surgery, no chemo, no radiation (1); no surgery, no chemo, radiation performed (2); no surgery, chemotherapy performed, no radiation (3); no surgery, chemotherapy performed, radiation performed (4); surgery performed, no chemotherapy, no radiation (5); surgery performed, no chemotherapy, radiation performed (6); surgery performed, chemotherapy performed, no radiation (7); and surgery performed, chemotherapy performed, radiation performed (8). Laterality of tumor origin includes: not a paired site (0), only one side (either left or right) is involved (1), bilateral involvement (2), paired site with unknown origin side or midline tumor (3). (B) Predicted patient survival probability curve corresponding to risk scores ranging from 2 to 22. Journal of Thoracic Oncology 2018 13, 1338-1348DOI: (10.1016/j.jtho.2018.05.037) Copyright © 2018 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Validation of proposed nomogram prognostic model in the testing set. (A) Risk scores of testing set cases were calculated according to the model in Figure 1 and grouped into 8 subgroups. Kaplan-Meier plot was depicted for each group. (B) Summary of groups in (A). Hazard ratio (HR) was calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression model between each two adjacent lines. p value was calculated using the Wald test. (C) Area under the curve was calculated for three prognostic models for every month from the first to the 30th month. Blue: nomogram developed in this study; green: AJCC eighth TNM staging system; red: limited/extensive staging system. (D,E) Calibration curves compare predicted and actual survival proportions at 1 year (D) and 2 years (E), separately. Each point in the plot refers to a group of patients, with the nomogram predicted probability of survival shown on x axis and actual survival proportion shown on y axis. Distributions of predicted survival probabilities are plotted at the top. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Journal of Thoracic Oncology 2018 13, 1338-1348DOI: (10.1016/j.jtho.2018.05.037) Copyright © 2018 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Online webserver interface for our nomogram as well as for previous prognostic models. (A) The newly developed nomogram in this study (Wang model). (B-E) Published nomograms by Pan et al.8 (B), Xiao et al.9 (C), and Xie et al.4 (D) Extensive stage. (E) Limited stage. Journal of Thoracic Oncology 2018 13, 1338-1348DOI: (10.1016/j.jtho.2018.05.037) Copyright © 2018 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Terms and Conditions