Variability 8/24/04 Paul A. Jensen

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Variability 8/24/04 Paul A. Jensen Operations Research Models and Methods Copyright 2004 - All rights reserved

Example A single machine performs an operation for a unit of product. The mean operation time is 30 seconds. Units arrive at the station with an average time between arrivals of 40 seconds. There is room for three waiting units.

Arrival and service processes are constant Arrival rate: 1.5/minute Service rate: 2/minute Percent utilization Average delay Average WIP

Arrival process is random Service process is constant Arrival rate: 1.5/minute Average Service rate: 2/minute Percent utilization Average delay Average WIP

Arrival and service processes are random Average Arrival rate: 1.5/minute Average Service rate: 2/minute Percent utilization Average delay Average WIP

Conclusion:

Analytical Determination of System Characteristics u Unit flow t operation time U = ut Unit time V Production volume s Number of machines

For analytical purposes Assume service and interarrival times have exponential distributions

We want to compute: State Probabilities Average Number and Time in the Queue Average Number and Time in the System Percent Utilization

The State Probabilities The probability that the system is empty The probability of n in the system for n ≤ s The probability of n in the system for n > s

Average Number and Time In the queue In the system Utilization

Queuing Networks

Equivalence Property Assume: All stations have exponential service times and unlimited queues and all inputs to the system are Poisson processes. Then: Each station can be analyzed independently with queuing analysis. Then: System characteristics can be determined by summing station characteristics.

Consider the Job Shop

Queuing Analysis

System Characteristics

Stations Performing More than One Operation

Items Processed in Lots

The effects of producing in lots

Individual vs. lot production (neglecting setup time) The minimum number of stations is the same The traffic intensity is the same The average number in the queue is the same But: For individual production Lq is in units For lot production Lq is in lots For lot production, WIP is Q times greater For lot production, W and Wq is Q times greater

Effects of setup time Setup time increases the minimum number of machines Setup time increases the traffic intensity The effects are reduced by increasing the lot size But, increasing the lot size increases WIP and throughput time by a factor of Q

Example Production of A is 0.417 per minute, and production of B is 0.8333 per minute. Oper. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Time A min. 18 Time B 12 15 Unit Flow 1.272 1.111 WIP A 2.65 2.12 8.332 2.315 WIP B 10.6 12.72 9.258 13.89

Analyze Station 3 for flows in individual units

Determining the number of machines

Analyze Station 3 for flows in lots of 10