Probabilistic forecasts

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Presentation transcript:

Probabilistic forecasts Probability of a specific event Chance of rain; chance of frost Expressions of a full distribution Derived statistically or through the use of ensembles. Used by the National Hurricane Center.

Discrimination Plot Decision Threshold Outcome = No Outcome = Yes Hits False Alarms

Brier Score

Decomposing Brier Score BS = reliability – resolution + uncertainty

Attribute Diagram

Attribute Diagrams

Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) Plot

Exercise 3 (open ex3.r) Chance of rain forecast and observation. Discrimination plot ROC plot Area under ROC plot

Aggregation Open ex4.r Use of the aggregate function Example of a function A warning about factors and numeric class variables.