AoH Phase 2 Update AoH Meeting – San Diego, CA January 25, 2006 Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Overview AoH Technical Support System update Overview of weight of evidence (WOE) approach Review of WOE elements tied to modeling

Goals of the AoH Phase 2 Technical Support System (TSS) Project Provide a single web-based location for access and display of technical data, display of analytical results, and the reference location for related documentation to support the regional haze implementation plans. Provide specific analysis tools to synthesize technical and contextual data and GIS layers, conduct analyses, and store results for subregional/local/Class I area-specific regional haze planning. Provide the analysis and display tools for Phase 2 analyses, and the technical support documentation for WRAP region SIPs and TIPs for regional haze.

Work Plan Tasks – Analysis Project (1) Task 1: Solicit and define user requirements from the appropriate WRAP work groups. Largely completed, continued feedback expected Task 2: Prepare suite of data products based on final 2002 emissions, modeling, and attribution results. Plan02/Base18 emissions/modeling products largely completed; task ongoing as results become available Task 3: Define the weight of evidence (WOE) approach to be applied to AoH Phase 2 data. Ongoing work; concepts periodically reviewed with AoH Workgroup

Work Plan Tasks – Analysis Project (2) Task 4: Interpret 2018 results and implications for showing progress under the Regional Haze Rule. Work on this task just beginning Task 5: Prepare draft and final AoH Phase 2 analysis report. Work on this task not yet begun Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and solicit project feedback at WRAP meetings. Ongoing as required

Work Plan Tasks – TSS Project (1) Task 6: Perform TSS requirements analysis and scoping study. Completed; serves as basis for ongoing development Task 7a: Acquire and prepare the relevant databases. Plan02/Base18 emissions and modeling results in hand; raw data not yet available on TSS Task 8: Develop data review interfaces based on user requirements. Ongoing; alpha version of web site just released; significant work expected on this task 1/06 – 10/06

Work Plan Tasks – TSS Project (2) Task 9: Develop data exchange protocols and guidelines. Work on this task has not yet begun; will likely be scoped during this phase of work but not implemented until after 10/06. Goal of this task is to allow users to add their own local or specialized data/analyses to the TSS. Task 10: Develop method to capture on-line user feedback. Web site feedback mechanism in place; will require some enhancement

TSS Home Page http://vista. cira. colostate TSS Home Page http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/wraptss/ (Link can be found on the WRAP interactive agenda for the Jan. 24-25, 2006 AoH Meeting)

Model Results/Tools on the TSS

Emissions Displays/Tools on the TSS

WOE Definition Set of analyses supplemental to primary measurement/modeling efforts WRAP AoH working definition: Review of all available analyses that bear on Class I area visibility Monitoring data Emissions data Model results Attribution results (combination of multiple methods) Review of trends (monitoring and emissions) Review of episodic (“natural” ?) events Back trajectory and other analyses Assigning appropriate weight to each analysis (based on relevance and uncertainty) Ultimately, this will take the form of a checklist of things to review and instructions on how to weigh each piece

Is Model Prediction of Reasonable Progress… Reasonable? Determine if the major species causing visibility impairment are handled well by the model The variability in the 5-year baseline could be used as an “uncertainty range” to bound the projected 2018 visibility: Which species most affect variability? Meteorological dependencies? Could this be tied to monitoring uncertainties? Are there episodic events that could justifiably be removed from the data set (e.g., large fire episodes during baseline period)? Review attribution source regions and their emissions: How well do attribution methods agree? If source regions can be identified with confidence, do the projected emissions reductions for 2018 support the model’s visibility reductions?

2002 Model Performance: Agua Tibia, CA

2018 -2002 Model Change: Agua Tibia, CA

2002 Model Performance: Zion, UT

2018 -2002 Model Change: Zion, UT

Median Uncertainty of IMPROVE Data Across WRAP Uncertainty based only on lab reported uncertainties for daily samples (2000 – 2004) OC, EC, Soil, and CM uncertainty determined from standard propagation of error analysis on individual component terms Uncertainty due to flow/size cut errors not included

Regional Emissions and Model Results WRAP has benefited from sulfate reductions over the past 15 years – relatively small additional gains are expected to be made according to the 2018 base case Nitrate reductions are expected to be more significant at some locations in the 2018 base case Organic carbon is heavily influenced by fires and therefore it is difficult to predict future emissions accurately

Regional SO2 Emissions – All Sources

Regional Sulfate – Model Results

Regional NOx Emissions – All Sources

Regional Nitrate – Model Results

Distribution of Measured Sulfate – Sequoia

Distribution of Modeled Sulfate – Sequoia

Distribution of Measured Nitrate – Sequoia

Distribution of Modeled Nitrate – Sequoia

Distribution of Measured OM – Sequoia

Distribution of Modeled OM – Sequoia

Schematic of Glide Path From: Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions Under the Regional Haze Rule, EPA 2003

Glide Path for Agua Tibia, CA

Glide Path for Agua Tibia, CA Baseline Variability (dv) Baseline Variability by Species

Glide Path for Goat Rocks, WA

Glide Path for Goat Rocks, WA Baseline Variability (dv) Baseline Variability by Species

Expected Attribution Results The modeled attribution results (CAMx and PSAT method) will help us estimate how much species mass is likely due to specific source regions (states, Canada, Mexico, Pacific, etc.) Will help to answer the questions: Which states need to consult on visibility issues What contributions to haze might be coming from outside the WRAP or the U.S.

Phase I Sulfate and Nitrate Extinction Attributed to Arizona (TSSA Analysis)

Phase I Sulfate and Nitrate Extinction Attributed to Oregon (TSSA Analysis)