Climate Change How might the continued increase in global temperatures affect Africa? John Birchall

Africa - vulnerability

Africa – the major causes for concern Temperature rises over many areas will be greater than the global average. The general predicted rise is 4C by the 2080s. But temperatures could rise to 7C in southern Africa and 8C in northern Africa - almost double the global average Significant changes in rainfall could be experienced across the continent, with the area around the Sahara and in southern Africa Desertification is likely to increase around the Sahara, causing populations to move. Rising temperatures, widespread water stress, increased frequency and severity of droughts and floods, and rising sea levels will severely damage progress on development goals in Africa. Cereal crop yields could fall between 10 to 30 percent by the 2050s compared to 1990 levels.

Africa – the major causes for concern Heat waves will bring increased injuries and death. Vector- and water-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and cholera may increase.An additional 67 million people in Africa could be at risk of malaria epidemics by the 2080s. Greenhouse gases must be curbed and help must be given to vulnerable Africans to adapt to the new climate conditions. The cost of climate-proofing current investment plans will be between $10bn and $40bn.

What is global warming?

The main greenhouse gases

Who is monitoring global changes?

Some trends for discussion

How’s the rainfall near to you?

Rainfall - discussion How have annual rainfall numbers been changing in your country? Migration of pastoral farmers, land use, distance to fetch water, human migration patterns Government reactions? Health matters

Sea temperature changes

What should we be thinking about? Land usage Water provision Irrigation Marginal land Rural-urban drift Coastal erosion Who pays and how

What might happen?

It’s going to get hotter…

Reactions to temperature trends What has been happening in your country? Rainy season, lake depths, flash floods Illnesses related to increased temperatures Deterioration in national asset structure Government reactions

What might happen to the sea?

Rising sea levels Are these affecting your country – how? Coastal populations and food stocks Land use Transport, infrastructure, distribution of products Migration Government reactions

Could we be more at risk from disease?

Diseases may increase Are there any signs of this in your country? Why might this be happening How will it affect national health care delivery How might it affect education What is government doing to educate people of the risks Does government have plans to combat any increase in disease levels

Denge fever…

Malaria

Marine Resources

Marine Life

The economic impact of the sea

Marine resources Are these important to your country and if so why Are marine resources being exploited How can value be added in this sector Who owns and regulates this part of the economy What are its future prospects How does the government address this area of the economy

Africa is less at risk…

Human behaviour

Those at most risk

Causal Factors

Who is most at risk?

The sea is a powerful force

All of Africa is at risk – the Nile Delta

The Gambia

The vulnerable are at an increased risk

Another example

Economic Impact

The economic impact Which areas of your country would be most at risk if global warming increases? How would this affect parts of your economy Are these large contributors to the national economic wealth How might your government react to the possible economic changes that global warming might cause

Economic Impact

Conclusion These resources have been designed to help you focus on the major consequences of global warming You should be thinking about your won country and its geography and demographics You will also need to consider how and where global warming might impact on your country

Conclusion - 2 Finally, why not start to think about HOW the government, the private sector, NGO’s, major donor countries and other interested parties will need to produce policies that minimise the disruption to your economy and its people as global warming becomes a reality – good luck