Andy Wood and Dennis Lettenmaier

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Presentation transcript:

An experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic forecast system for the western U.S. Andy Wood and Dennis Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 5th International Scientific Conference on GEWEX Orange County, CA June 20, 2005

Topics forecasting system overview selected results for current winter something to think about

Technical Advances related to Hydrologic Forecasting physical hydrologic models Internet / real-time data snow cats snow survey / graphical forecasts / index methods / i.e., regression satellite imagery computing in water resources SNOTEL network ENSO / seasonal climate forecasts ESP method conceptual hydrologic models aerial snow surveys desktop computing 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Forecast System Overview Objective: To create a model-based testbed for evaluating potential sources of improvement in seasonal forecasts since inception of regression/ESP methods operational seasonal climate forecasts (model-based and otherwise) greater real-time availability of station data computing advances new satellite-based products (primarily snow cover) distributed, physical hydrologic modeling for macroscale regions

Forecast System Overview NCDC met. station obs. up to 2-4 months from current local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs soil moisture snowpack Hydrologic model spin up SNOTEL Update streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff 25th Day, Month 0 1-2 years back LDAS/other real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap Hydrologic forecast simulation Month 6 - 12 INITIAL STATE SNOTEL / MODIS* Update ensemble forecasts ESP traces (40) CPC-based outlook (13) NCEP GSM ensemble (20) NSIPP-1 ensemble (9) * experimental, not yet in real-time product

Forecast System Overview Snowpack Initial Condition Soil Moisture Initial Condition

Forecast System Overview sample validation of historic streamflow simulations

Forecast System Overview monthly hydrographs targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes

Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting Precip Temp SWE Runoff Soil Moisture Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05

Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting Multiple Hydrologic Models CCA NOAA CAS OCN CPC Official Outlooks NWS HL-RMS SMLR CA Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) VIC Hydrology Model NASA NSIPP-1 dynamical model NOAH LSM ESP weightings calibrated via retrospective analysis ENSO UW ENSO/PDO

Topics forecasting system overview selected results for current winter something to think about

WY2005, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions

WY2005, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions

WY2005, Feb. 1 hydrologic conditions

WY2005, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions

WY2005, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions

WY2005, May 1 hydrologic conditions

WY2005, June 1 hydrologic conditions

4/15 ESP forecast: WY2005 Precip, Temp plots show current + forecast (ESP; min, max and quartiles) against historical 1971-2000 min, max and quartiles Yakima R. Basin near Parker, WA

4/15 ESP forecast: WY2005 SM, SWE, RO with SWE assimilation Apr-Sep % of avg 3/15 4/15 chg max 61 57 0.75 46 50 0.50 41 45 0.25 39 42 min 31 39

Topics forecasting system overview selected results for current winter something to think about

Nowcast/Forecast System Consistency Issue ESP forecast VIC Retrospective Simulation Daily, 1915 to Near Current VIC “Modern” Simulation (last 5 years) Current Hydrologic State (Nowcast) CPC forecast ASSIMILATION Snow / Soil Moisture / Runoff / ETC Climate Model forecast

Nowcast/Forecast System Consistency Issue ESP forecast VIC Retrospective Simulation Daily, 1915 to Near Current VIC “Modern” Simulation (last 5 years) Current Hydrologic State (Nowcast) CPC forecast ASSIMILATION Snow / Soil Moisture / Runoff / ETC bias correction & downscaling help here… Climate Model forecast

New Surface Water Monitor daily updates 1-2 day lag soil moisture & SWE percentiles ½ degree resolution archive from 1915-current uses ~2130 index stns (poster tomorrow)

For more information Westwide streamflow forecasting system www.hydro.washington.edu / Lettenmaier / Projects / fcst / Surface water monitor for the continental US www.hydro.washington.edu / forecast / monitor /