D. Paronis1 , P. Jiggens3 , A. Hilgers3

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Presentation transcript:

D. Paronis1 , P. Jiggens3 , A. Hilgers3 Foretelling Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: the FORSPEF tool A. Anastasiadis1 , A. Papaioannou1 , I. Sandberg1 , M. K. Georgoulis2 , K.Tziotziou1 , D. Paronis1 , P. Jiggens3 , A. Hilgers3 1IAAASARS, National Observatory of Athens, Penteli, Greece 2RCAAM, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece 3ESTEC/ESA, Space Environment and Effects Section Keperlaan 1, Noordwijk, The Netherlands Session 1: Solar Energetic Particle Events: Measurement, Modeling, Forecasting and Impact

The FORSPEF Tool http://tromos.space.noa.gr/forspef Operational Core Solar Flare SEP FORSPEF Tool Database Validation Probabilities of Solar Flare and CME occurrence based on AR SDO/HMI data Probabilities of SEP event Occurrence based on SF Probabilities Range: 1984-2013 Solar Flares: 20459 CMEs: 3680 SEP events:314 AR magnetograms: 55691 Categorical & Probabilistic Scores for each module Forecasting Integrated web-based tool Nowcasting Nowcasting Probabilities of SEP event Occurrence & Characteristics Probabilities of SEP event Occurrence based on Type III bursts For a given Solar Flare For a given CME SEP / Flares SEP / CMEs SEP / Radio http://tromos.space.noa.gr/forspef European Space Weather Week (ESWW13) Session 1 14-18.11.2016 Oostende

The FORSPEF Tool: Demo