Strategic Foresight Analysis in the CRP-GLDC Core team: Sika G. (IITA), Nedumaran S. (ICRISAT), Aymen Frija (ICARDA), Arega Alene (IITA) State of Foresight in the CGIAR University of Aberdeen, 9-10 May 2018

Strategic foresight analysis in GLDC Foresight is under cluster 1.1: Foresight, climate change analysis and priority setting Priority-setting of GLDC crops and technologies: Earlier versions of CRP proposal (Phase 2): aim was to estimate potential economic and poverty-reduction impacts of GLDC technologies Matlon report: 64 recommendations; broaden scope of work on priority-setting 2017 proposal (successful): agroecologies, current value of production, foresight analysis, ex ante evaluation of GLDC technologies (BCR), additional traits, alignment with regional, country, industry and CGIAR priorities The first point: is about what CRPs/centers doing on foresight? So I think we should give 2-3 key areas we are working on foresight. At ICRISAT (common across IITA and ICARDA – I guess) we work on the following areas: Assess regional/country level long term trends for demand, production, yield, prices and trade deficits Impacts of key drivers (Climate change, income, increase population, etc.,) on change in demand-supply gaps, risk of population under hunger, etc., Assessing changing source of demand and identifying opportunities in sector like feed, food (smart food), bioethanol, etc., Production/agro-ecological domains and crop-livestock typologies to identify and target technologies for greater impacts

Expertise from centers involved in GLDC: ICRISAT, IITA and ICARDA ICRISAT: expertise in crop & economic modeling; publications on groundnuts, sorghum, millet and chickpea – CC impacts and ex- ante technology evaluation IITA: expertise in crop & economic modeling; work on closing future demand gap for soybean in SSA ICARDA: expertise in economic modeling; publications on agricultural water management in drylands

Objectives related to strategic foresight analysis: GLDC What are the desired (by different stakeholders) sustainable development outcomes in the target areas and what are the plausible outcomes under different future scenarios? Which set of interventions or lines of research and new technologies and management practices would have the greatest impacts on food and nutrition security, poverty reduction and sustainable natural resources management under a changing climate? In which geographies will the research be most relevant? Which lines of research would have the greatest benefits for women and the youth? Drivers Climate change; weather extremes Population and income changes: urbanization and changing diets Role of policies: food availability and natural resource management

Methods related to strategic foresight analysis Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) Nutrition (GLDC technologies) Poverty elasticities Poverty effects Women and youth employment Employment elasticities

Key results used by GLDC Management Region AEZ Crop Technology BCR West & cent. Afr. semi-arid Sorghum Early-maturing; tolerance to drought 23 dry sub-humid Groundnut Drought tolerance/resistance; early- maturing 16 Eastern Africa 15 28 Southern Africa Pigeonpea Resist. to Fusarium wilt and Cercospora leaf spot 8 Groundnuts Rosette resistance 14 South Asia Semi-arid Chickpea Resist. to Fusarium wilt and root rot 17 Resistant to Fusarium wilt and root rot 12

Climate change and yields in 2050 before economic responses (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5, no CO2 fert) Rainfed sorghum Rainfed groundnut Irrigated sorghum Irrigated groundnut Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations

Key gaps, operational challenges and opportunities Not easy to establish relevance of strategic foresight analysis for biophysical scientists (breeders, etc.) Pests and diseases Climate variability: weather extremes Long-term climate change Operational challenges: linking heterogeneous farms to regional and global trends Opportunities @ CGIAR centers: multi-disciplinary teams with multi-commodities expertise; presence in different regions and agro-ecologies

Thank you