At river mouths, predicts annual average export of: Global NEWS Model Nutrient Export from WaterSheds * DIC in prep. Original models and scenario applications.

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Presentation transcript:

At river mouths, predicts annual average export of: Global NEWS Model Nutrient Export from WaterSheds * DIC in prep. Original models and scenario applications published in 2 special issues of Global Biogeochemical Cycles (>25 papers) Dissolved Particulate Inorganic Organic N DIN DON PN P DIP DOP PP C DIC * DOC POC Si DSi

Nutrient Sources Natural N 2 -Fixation P Weathering Anthropogenic Non-Point Fertilizer (by crop type) N 2 -fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N Point Sewage (pop.; treatment level) Water Runoff Precip. Intensity Land-use Slope Lithology Hydrology & Physical Factors Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use In-River N, P, Si Removal Nutrient Loading to Coastal Waters Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al Seitzinger et al Global NEWS Model

Global NEWS modeling Environment (GNE) (Python code that runs NEWS models) Diffuse sources Point sources Hydrology Raw, Heterogeneous GIS Source files Diffuse sources Pre-processed, homogenized GIS Input files Point sources Hydrology Manual steps, Ad-hoc automation Direct Global NEWS inputs Basin-scale Inputs tables Global NEWS outputs Model outputs Papers, Glory, $$$$ GNE Complicated Variables other than basin means/sums. e.g. dam retention, FQrem, lithology class Global NEWS model(s)

Comparison of Model Predicted vs Measured River Transport Measured DOC yield (kg C km -2 yr -1 ) Modeled DOC yield (kg C km -2 yr -1 ) Measured DIN export (kg N basin -1 yr -1 ) Modeled DIN export (kg N basin -1 yr -1 ) Colorado Dnepr Susquehanna Gambia Ganges Rhine R 2 =0.88 Ganges

Disolved Inorganic N Particulate N Nitrogen Regional variations in watershed yields for all forms Different spatial patterns for N and P and forms (due to differences in controlling factors) Difference in dominant forms between N and P Phosphorus kg N/km 2 /yr > kg P/km 2 /yr > 2000 Dissolved Organic N Disolved Inorganic P Particulate P Dissolved Organic P

Dominant DIN Sources (Seitzinger & Harrison, 2008)

Millennium Assessment Scenarios GlobalRegional Reactive Proactive OS AMTG GO

Integrated Development Scenarios Nutrient Export at River Mouth Nutrient Sources from Food and Energy Population and Climate Policy Options & Costs

DIN yields (kg N/km 2 /yr) 2030 scenarios vs mean < kg N/km 2 /yr > 250 Run 4, 5/22/08 N yield change See legend on slide 1 Order from StrengthAdapting Mosaic Global OrchestrationTechno-garden 2030 Average DIN YieldAverage Change (Seitzinger et al., 2010, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

NEWS-Predicted DIP Yield (kg P / km 2 / yr) NEWS-DIP-2005 NEWS-DIP-HD-2010 (Harrison et al., 2010; GBC)

NEWS-DIN recently applied to CA sub- watersheds (Goodwin et al., Submitted)

Mayorga et al Model development, Envir. Modelling & Software Global Biogeochemical Cycles Special section Seitzinger et al. overview Bouwman et al. agriculture Van Drecht et al. urban wastewater Fekete et al. hydrology Harrison et al. increased spatial resolution Yan et al. Changjiang river VanderStruijk & Kroeze South America Yasin et al. Africa Garnier et al. river nutrient export ratios Billen et al. watershed auto-/heterotrophy Acknowlegements and for more details

Access to improved sanitation? Connection to sewer system? Removed Via Wastewater treatment? Population Urban Rural Yes No Yes No 100% Human emission No improved sanitation Improved sanitation, but not connected to sewer Discharged to surface waters Removed via sewage treatment No Human Emissions Van Drecht et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2003), Van Drecht et al., (2010) Global Biogeochem. Cycles

0.5 by 0.5 degree grid cell Upland crops Wetland rice Legumes Grassland Inputs -Fertilizer -Animal manure -Biological N fixation -Atmospheric deposition N sur = Inputs -N exp -N vol Van Drecht et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2003) Bouwman et al. Pedosphere (2005) Nutrient Balances For Diffuse Source Estimates Outputs -crop/grass N export (N exp ) Incl. Fodder crops Excl. residue management SOILSOIL Outputs -crop/grass N export Incl. Fodder crops Excl. residue management -Ammonia volatilization Energy crops

River transport of DIN to coast (kg N km -2 y -1 ) Seitzinger et al Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Integrated development scenarios Nutrient Export at River Mouth Nutrient Sources from Food and Energy Policy Options & Costs

Millennium Assessment Scenarios GlobalRegional Reactive Proactive OS AMTG GO

NEWS-DIN Performance Measured DIN yield (kg N km -2 y -1 ) Modeled DIN yield (kg N km -2 y -1 ) N.S.E.= 0.70 Calibration Validation (Dumont et al., 2005: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Mayorga et al. 2010, Env. Modeling and Software)

Projections of River DIN Export Global Orchestration Scenario

NEWS-DIN-Predicted DIN Yield (kg N km -2 y -1 ) (Dumont et al., 2005: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Mayorga et al. 2010, Env. Modeling and Software)

Project Co-chairs A.F. Bouwman, PBL, Netherlands J. Harrison, Washington State U., USA Other Participants A. Beusen RIVM, The Netherlands G. Billen UMR Sisyphe (CNRS-UPMC), France D. Breitburg, SERC, USA F. Dentener JRC, Ispra, Italy R. Diaz, VIMS, USA P. Döll Univ. Kassell, Germany H. Envoldesen, UNESCO-IOC, Denmark J. Garnier, UMR Sisyphe (CNRS-UPMC), France P. Glibert, UMD, USA V. Ittekkot Ctr. Mar. Trop. Ecology, Germany R. Kudela, UCSC, USA F.T. Mackenzie Univ. Hawaii, USA M. Meybeck UMR Sisyphe, France S. Seitzinger, IGBP, Sweden R. Smith, USGS, USA C. Vörösmarty Univ. New Hampshire, USA W. Yan Chinese Academy Sciences, China N. Caraco, Institute Ecosystem Studies, USA D. Conley, National Envir. Res. Inst., Denmark J. Garnier, UMR Sisyphe, France C. Kroeze, Univ. Wageningen, Netherlands Global NEWS Global (N)utrient (E)xport from (W)ater(S)heds