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Presentation transcript:

google: cisn shakemap nc 38° google: cisn shakemap nc http://www.cisn.org/shakemap/nc/shake/ 37.5° 37° 123° 122° 121°

The Next Bay Area Earthquake What to expect What is the Hazard in San Jose? Dr. John Boatwright, Bay Area Earthquake Alliance Co-Chair Co-Regional Coordinator for Northern California US Geological Survey

California urban areas are prisoners of the Plate Boundary North American Plate E-A SF Bay Area Greater LA Pacific Plate California urban areas are prisoners of the Plate Boundary

40 mm/yr Farallons-Sierra Nevada North American plate Pacific plate

Hayward Earthquake 1868 “We need to correct our style of architecture … to work a savings of untold sums of money in the future” - San Jose Mercury News October 29, 1868 Note types of building damage

1906 San Francisco 20 foot fence offset in 1906 near Pt. Reyes “mole track” is a common surface expression of an earthquake fault in soil

Loma Prieta 1989

Moment Accumulation in the SF Bay Region Cumulative M0, dyne-cm Stress Shadow

2007-2036 63% In the next 30 years there is a 62% probability, nearly a 2 in 3 chance, of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the greater Bay Area. Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults there, including the Hayward fault. UCERF2 Report (2007) 3% 1% 31% 21% 11% 63% 7% 6% 2007-2036

M ≥ 6.7 Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults including the Hayward Fault.

1868 Hayward Earthquake this ShakeMap is based on damage reports- there were only 260,000 people in the Bay Area 38° the shaking was strongest in San Leandro and Hayward -121.5° -121°

Hayward Fault Earthquake: The Infrastructure Earthquake 14

Animation of Shaking from a M7.0 on the Hayward Fault San Leandro Epicenter http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

Losses by county - M7.0 scenario Sonoma Solano Santa Clara Santa Mateo San Francisco Marin Contra Costa Alameda $0 $40B $80 $100 Economic Loss ($Billions) 16

What will happen in the next large earthquake? Soft-Story Damage & Failures Fire Following Earthquake

Soft-Story Buildings the mayor of San Francisco just made soft-story retrofits voluntary rather than mandatory 18

1989 Favorable Fire Conditions Marina fire