~100 yrs of global temperature trends predictions

Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variation in climate. A central concept when studying the relationship between climate, phenology, and other life history traits is the match vs. mismatch of the climate–phenology response within different components of the ecological system. A central concept when studying the relationship between climate, phenology, and other life history traits is the match vs. mismatch of the climate–phenology response within different components of the ecological system. (A) The environmental cues triggering onset of egg laying change in asynchrony to the environmental conditions prevailing when chicks are reared and when birds' energetic demands are the highest, as shown for Great tit (18). (B) The differential climate change between summer and winter ranges may lead to problems in the transition for migratory birds, such as the American robin (21).

Nesting (fill areas represent successful attempts) Food fledglings predators

Nesting (fill areas represent successful attempts) Food fledglings predators Nestlings need the most food in the second half of the nestling phase This requires parents have (1) built a nest, (2) laid, and (3) incubated the eggs Great tit lays 9 eggs, incubates 9 days and chick peak demand is 10 days later… start laying 32 days before the expected food peak Late breeders almost always do poorly! So if food supply is advanced Breeding BETTER be advanced

Pied Flycatcher Christiaan Both Netherlands

But concentrating on food is too simple b/c multiple factors can shift

Budburst advanced (0.17 d/yr) Caterpillars advanced (0.75 d/yr) Birds advanced (0.36-0.50 d/yr) No change in Predators

Correlations peak demand and peak availability one trophic level down What do you notice?

But in other studies its not food Climate- and resource-driven long-term changes in dormice populations negatively affect hole-nesting songbirds P. Adam´ık & M. Kr´al But in other studies its not food whose phenology shifts, its predators 30 day earlier occupation! Edible dormouse (Czech Republic)

Species differences to global change is probably the NORM

But its more complicated than a simple mismatch…. Warmer temps yield greater beech mast… And more dormice….

The phenology mismatch hypothesis: are declines of migrant birds linked to uneven global climate change?

Pygoscelis adeliae Pygoscelis antarcticus

UN Food and Agriculture Organization [http://www. fao

http://www.lternet.edu/vignettes/pal.html

National Snow and Ice Data Center [http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/04/06/1016560108.full.pdf

Adelie penguins have lived in the Western Antarctica for over 600 years.   

This photo is taken within the last ten years This photo is taken within the last ten years.  The green line is a stark reminder that the number of breeding Adelie pairs has decreased from around 13,600 in 1981 to around 2,700 in 2011.

Too much precipitation leads breeding grounds covered in snow, which melts