# 1 MSTS/ Intro ROLES FOR STATISTICS IN 21 ST CENTURY MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT SYSTEMS ROLES FOR STATISTICS IN 21 ST CENTURY MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT SYSTEMS N. Scott Urquhart Director of STARMAP Department of Statistics Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO USA

# 2 MSTS/ Intro OVERVIEW OF THIS THEME PERSPECTIVES PLENARY SESSIONS Today CASE STUDIES Tomorrow = Wednesday LINKING THE TWO PERSPECTIVES Thursday Morning TUTORIAL = How To Design and Implement Natural Resource Surveys Thursday Afternoon

# 3 MSTS/ Intro SURVEY PERSPECTIVES REMOTELY-SENSED RESPONSES HAVE A MAJOR ROLE Ground-Based Responses Have an Auxiliary Role Often as ground truthing IN CONTRAST TO IN CONTRAST TO GROUND-EVALUATED RESPONSES HAVE A MAJOR ROLE Remotely-Sensed Responses Have an Auxiliary Role Often serving as covariates

# 4 MSTS/ Intro REMOTELY-SENSED RESPONSES WHAT ARE THEY? Usually They are Sensed from Images Obtained from an Aerial Platform Aerial photography Imaging from a space vehicle Spectral reflectance – fairly well established Radars – emerging Often complete coverage Devices attached to a place, animal or robot Stream flow Sense things like location and temperature Deer to bees

# 5 MSTS/ Intro REMOTELY-SENSED RESPONSES (Continued) WHAT ARE THEY? Usually They are Sensed from Images Obtained from an Aerial Platform Aerial photography Imaging from a space vehicle Classify parts of the image » Automatic – computer based » Manually Evaluate the size of various classes, like »Land use classes »Vegetation type

# 6 MSTS/ Intro GROUND-EVALUATED RESPONSES CONTRASTING PERSPECTIVE CONTRASTING PERSPECTIVE Data is Obtained by Personnel Visiting the Field Site of Interest At the field site, personnel may Collect material – for subsequent lab evaluation Directly evaluate responses Or both – common in aquatic studies Frequent realities Many responses will be evaluated Design can not be optimized for all responses

# 7 MSTS/ Intro GROUND-EVALUATED RESPONSES (Continued) Site Selection Process Area of interest may be partitioned into disjoint areas A sample of areas will be visited Points may be selected in some manner Field crews go to site Resource of interest may, or may not, be there

# 8 MSTS/ Intro OVERVIEW OF THIS THEME PERSPECTIVES PLENARY SESSIONS - OVERVIEW Today CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES Tomorrow = Wednesday LINKING THE TWO PERSPECTIVES Small area or local estimation Thursday Morning TUTORIAL = How To Design and Implement Natural Resource Surveys Thursday Afternoon

# 9 MSTS/ Intro PLENARY SESSIONS = OVERVIEW Remotely-Sensed Responses (This session 1:30 – 3:00) On Remotely-Sensed Responses Raymond (Ray) Czaplewski Ground-Evaluated Responses (Next session 3:45 – 5:15) Statistical Perspective on the Design and Analysis of Natural Resource Monitoring Programs Anthony (Tony) R. Olsen Overview of FIA Ronald (Ron) McRoberts {Schedule change} Hans Schreuder to 1:30 Steven Fancy to 11:45

# 10 MSTS/ Intro CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES Programs Utilizing Remotely-Sensed Responses Session – Chair = Trent McDonald National Resources Inventory Wayne Fuller, & others National Wetlands Inventory Tom Dahl Date/Time: Tomorrow = Wednesday, 9/22/04 8:30 – 9:30 9:30 – 10:00 – time for discussion

# 11 MSTS/ Intro CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES (Continued) Programs Utilizing Ground-Evaluated Responses Session Continued The United States National Agricultural Survey Carol House Integrated State-Federal Partnership for Aquatic Resource Monitoring in the United States for Groundwater Using Existing Wells Anthony (Tony) R. Olsen Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of the United States Department of Agriculture Michael (Mike) Williams & others Date/Time: Tomorrow = Wednesday, 9/22/04 10:45 – 12:15

# 12 MSTS/ Intro CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES (Continued) Realities of Conducting Natural Resource Surveys – Chair = Mike Williams Session – Continued The Past, Present, and Future of Sampling Natural Resources: An Economic and Statistical Perspective Hans Schreuder Interagency Cooperation in Natural Resource Surveys J. Jeffery Goebel Wildlife Monitoring: Success Requires More than a Good Sampling Design Kenneth P. Burnham Date/Time: Tomorrow = Wednesday, 9/22/04 1:30 – 3:00

# 13 MSTS/ Intro CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES (Continued) Not Represented Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program (ABMP) Cooperative venture: government, academia & industry Minimally Represented = Surveys of animal populations Very different study requirements from most of the cases discussed here Often, finding the animals constitutes a major undertaking Frequently, some sort of modeling plays a major role Nevertheless, many of the same ideas have to be addressed

# 14 MSTS/ Intro LINKING THE TWO PERSPECTIVES Small Area Estimation and Model-Based Inference Session Gretchen Moisen organized this Small Area Estimation for Natural Resource Surveys F. Jay Breidt Evaluating Standards Using Data Collected From Regional Probabilistic Monitoring Programs Eric P. Smith & others Non-linear Small Area Estimation in the National Resources Inventory Survey Tapabrata (Taps) Maiti Date/Time: Thursday, 9/23/04 8:30 – 10:00

# 15 MSTS/ Intro LINKING THE TWO PERSPECTIVES (Continued) Small Area Estimation and Model-Based Inference Session Use of Model-based Stratifications for Sampling Rare Ecological Events: Lichens as a Case Example Thomas C. Edwards & others Developing Risk-based Guidelines for Water Quality Monitoring and Evaluation: The Australian Experience David Fox Long-term Monitoring of Large, Remote Areas with Minimal Funding: Hope and Encouragement for Natural Area Managers Steven Fancy Date/Time: Thursday, 9/23/04 10:45 – 12:15

# 16 MSTS/ Intro TUTORIAL: HOW TO DESIGN AND IMPLEMENT NATURAL RESOURCE SURVEYS Concepts A Tutorial on Designing Natural Resource Surveys: Concepts to Implementation Session Instructor = Urquhart Structured around the Anatomy Of Sampling Studies Of Ecological Responses Through Time Urquhart & Olsen Date/Time: Thursday, 9/23/04 1:30 – 3:00

# 17 MSTS/ Intro TUTORIAL: HOW TO DESIGN AND IMPLEMENT NATURAL RESOURCE SURVEYS (Continued) Implementation A Tutorial on Designing Natural Resource Surveys: Concepts to Implementation Session The Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified Sampling Design for Selecting Spatially-Balanced Samples Don L. Stevens GRTS for the Average Joe: Implementing GRTS in Windows and S- Plus Trent L. McDonald Robust Spatial Sampling of Natural Resources Using a GIS Implementation of the GRTS Algorithm David M. Theobald Date/Time: Thursday, 9/23/04 3:45 – 5:15

# 18 MSTS/ Intro SUMMARY SESSION Unified Knowledge-Based Strategies and Solutions Ray Czaplewski USDA, Forest Service Richard W. Guldin Science Policy, …, USDA Forest Service-Research & Development Keith Pezzoli University of San Diego Greg Reams Forest Health Monitoring, USDA Forest Service Carl Reed Specification Program, Open GIS Consortium, Inc Date/Time: Friday, 9/24/04 8:30 – 12:00 If any of these people are here, please see me.

# 19 MSTS/ Intro FIRST PLENARY SPEAKER Raymond (Ray) Czaplewski Project Leader, Forest Invent. & Monitoring Envi.. USDA-Forest Service-Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO Received his PhD in Range Science from Colo State Univ Earlier in his career he held positions as a statistician and landscape ecologist. Professional interests include: Integration of remotely sensed data from earth-observing satellites into monitoring processes; Ecological process models; and Field observation. On Remotely-Sensed Responses On Remotely-Sensed Responses

# 20 MSTS/ Intro SECOND PLENARY SPEAKER Anthony (Tony) R. Olsen Statistics Lead, Environmental Monitoring & Assessment Program (EMAP) EPAs-Western Ecology Division, Corvallis, OR Received his PhD in Statistics from Oregon State Univ His professional interests include: Statistical aspects of monitoring and assessment, monitoring design; Survey sampling; Exploratory data analysis; and Graphical data analysis and graphical communication. Graphical data analysis and graphical communication. Statistical Perspective on the Design and Analysis of Natural Resource Monitoring Programs Statistical Perspective on the Design and Analysis of Natural Resource Monitoring Programs

# 21 MSTS/ Intro THIRD PLENARY SPEAKER Ronald (Ron) McRoberts Group Leader for Research for the Forest Inventory & Analysis Program North Central Research Station, USDA-Forest Service He received a PhD in biostatistics from the Univ. of Minnesota. His research interests include: Nonlinear modeling, Land cover & land change, and Map-based estimation of forest attributes. Overview of FIA