Architecture Selection Logic Solomon Westerman, PM Week 7, 2/26/09 [Solomon Westerman] [PM] 1

[Solomon Westerman] [PM] 2 Complexity Complexity drives cost and reliability! Cost Reliability Launch Mass in LEO Purchase Licenses Components Salary Integration R&D Construction Launch Same model TLI, LD, LOCO Moving Parts Failure Modes Purchased or Built Components $ Spent on R&D Improve our reliability! Balance total cost and system reliability to meet requirements for each payload mass [Solomon Westerman] [PM] 2

Architecture Logic for GLXP size Payloads Want to minimize mission cost (maximize profit) Cost currently driving selection Unless significant $ spend on R&D, mission reliability is unlikely to be > 90% R&D cost + mission cost will likely be more than purse money for > 90% reliability Even the most reliable GEO satellite buses have ~11% of fleet with insurance claims, most have ~25% Therefore, we could plan for two launches Allows us to invest less in R&D 90% reliability for two missions is equal to 69% reliability for one mission Cross our fingers and hope the first mission works If first mission works: we make good profit If first mission fails: fix, build, and launch again to minimize loss Second launch may not win full GLXP prize money due to time constraint Locomotion reliability a HUGE driver Working with slim margin if we don’t pour too much money into LD R&D Combination of phase vehicles is very promising, even for small payloads Need to look at model to see if we can get > 90% with one launch Reduced complexity not only leads to lower cost, but increased reliability! [Solomon Westerman] [PM] 3

Architecture Logic for Arbitrary (large) Payload Want to minimize mission cost with acceptable reliability Payload likely to be expensive, desire higher reliability than GLXP Reliability requirement currently driving selection Require 90% reliability for ONE mission! R&D cost will be needed to satisfy reliability Significant R&D cost must be put into TLI, LD, and LOCO R&D cost can be reduced by launching with Soyuz FG (excellent reliability at ~1.7x higher launch cost) Combination of phase vehicles increases reliability SIGNIFICANTLY Integrated hopper/lander is almost required to maintain reliability requirement Less costly mission [Solomon Westerman] [PM] 4

Demo Excel Model