Jason Lowe, Pike association of southern baptists Lostness in Kentucky Jason Lowe, Pike association of southern baptists

Source Data The summaries in this report are drawn from the following data sources: U.S. Census Bureau (census.gov) KBC Lostness Indicators for Kentucky Report (a.k.a. “Glenmary Report”) Kentucky Baptist Convention Mission Board staff

Overview of Kentucky Population (2015 Estimate): 4,425,273 Counties: 120 % of Adherents: 51.6% (2,282,048 Kentuckians) % of Membership: 33.8% (1,497,925 Kentuckians) % of Attenders (Weekly): 13.0% (575,911 Kentuckians) Total KBC Churches: 2,503 KBC Church to Population Ratio: 1 KBC church for every 1,768 Kentuckians

KBC Consultant Regions

KBC Regional Comparisons Population # Counties # KBC Churches KBC Church Ratio # KBC Funded Church Plants West 474,879 19 506 1:938 13 South Central 540,679 20 425 1:1272 8 Central 1,303,806 15 482 1:2705 North Central 1,171,578 21 406 1:2886 10 South 388,048 16 437 1:888 3 East 546,283 29 247 1:2212 1 Total 4,425,273 120 2,503 1:1768 55

KBC Regional Comparisons % Adherents Total Non-Adherents % Members Total Non-Members % Attenders Total Non-Attenders West 65.0% 166,444 48.4% 245,069 19.4% 382,967 S. Central 56.9% 232,959 40.5% 321,911 15.9% 454,920 Central 53.1% 611,505 30.8% 902,291 11.6% 1,152,492 N. Central 49.8% 588,236 29.4% 827,275 11.4% 1,037,562 South 52.4% 184,752 41.9% 225,343 15.1% 329,497 East 34.2% 359,330 25.8% 405,459 10.0% 491,925 Total 51.6% 2,143,225 33.8% 2,927,348 13.0% 3,849,362

Regional Comparisons: Population 1. Central – 1,303,806 2. North Central – 1,171,578 3. East – 546,283 4. South Central – 540,679 5. West – 474,879 6. South – 388,048

Regional Comparisons: % of Adherents (Ranked Low to High) 1. East – 34.2% 2. North Central – 49.8% 3. South – 52.4% 4. Central – 53.1% 5. South Central – 56.9% 6. West – 65.0%

Regional Comparisons: Most Non-Adherents 1. Central – 611,505 2. North Central – 588,236 3. East – 359,330 4. South Central – 232,959 5. South – 184,752 6. West – 166,444

Regional Comparisons: % of Members (Ranked Low to High) 1. East – 25.8% 2. North Central – 29.4% 3. Central – 30.8% 4. South Central – 40.5% 5. South – 41.9% 6. West – 48.4%

Regional Comparisons: Most Non-Members 1. Central – 902,291 2. North Central – 827,275 3. East – 405,459 4. South Central – 321,911 5. West – 245,069 6. South – 225,343

Regional Comparisons: % of Attenders (Ranked Low to High) 1. East – 10.0% 2. North Central – 11.4% 3. Central – 11.6% 4. South – 15.1% 5. South Central – 15.9% 6. West – 19.4%

Regional Comparisons: Most Non-Attenders 1. Central – 1,152,492 2. North Central – 1,037,562 3. East – 491,925 4. South Central – 454,920 5. West – 382,967 6. South – 329,497

Regional Comparisons: KBC Church to Population Ratio 1. North Central – 1:2886 2. Central – 1:2705 3. East – 1:2212 4. South Central – 1:1272 5. West – 1:938 6. South – 1:888

Regional Comparisons: KBC Funded Church Plants 1. Central - 20 2. West - 13 3. North Central - 10 4. South Central – 8 5. South - 3 6. East - 1

Church Planting Priority Index The Church Planting Priority Index ranks the 6 KBC regions in each of the following categories: % Non-Adherents Total Non-Adherents % Non-Members Total Non-Members % Non-Attenders Total Non-Attenders KBC Church to Population Ratio # of Current KBC-Funded Church Plants

KBC Church Planting Priority Index: Regional Rankings % Non-Adherents Total Non-Adherents % Non-Members Total Non-Members % Non-Attenders Total Non-Attenders KBC Church Ratio KBC Church Plants Average Ranking West 6 5 5.50 S. Central 4 3 4.13 Central 1 2 2.63 N. Central 2.13 South 4.63 East 2.00

Church Planting Priority Index The data comparisons from the Church Planting Priority Index suggests that church planting is needed in the KBC regions in the following order of priority: 1. East (Index = 2.00) 2. North Central (Index = 2.13) 3. Central (Index = 2.63) 4. South Central (Index = 4.13) 5. South (Index = 4.63) 6. West (Index = 5.50)

Spiritual Demographics for Kentucky Counties

Top 25 Most Lost KY Counties (Based upon % of Non-Adherents) 1. Elliot (East) 10. Robertson (East) 19. Lawrence (East) 2. Menifee (East) 11. Letcher (East) 20. Leslie (East) 3. Breathitt (East) 12. Magoffin (East) 21. Allen (South Central) 4. Rowan (East) 13. Jackson (South) 22. Floyd (East) 5. Morgan (East) 14. Carter (East) 23. Pike (East) 6. Wolfe (East) 15. Johnson (East) 24. Bullitt (Central) 7. McCreary (South) 16. Lewis (East) 25. Owsley (South) 8. Knott (East) 17. Lee (East) 9. Martin (East) 18. Jessamine (North Central)

Top 25 Most Lost KY Counties (Based upon # of Non-Adherents) 1. Jefferson (Central) 10. Pike (East) 19. Barren (South Central) 2. Fayette (North Central) 11. Jessamine (North Central) 20. Franklin (Central) 3. Kenton (North Central) 12. Oldham (Central) 21. Greenup (East) 4. Warren (South Central) 13. Christian (West) 22. Nelson (Central) 5. Boone (North Central) 14. Laurel (South) 23. Shelby (Central) 6. Hardin (Central) 15. Scott (North Central) 24. Carter (East) 7. Madison (North Central) 16. Daviess (South Central) 25. Henderson (West) 8. Bullitt (Central) 17. Pulaski (South) 9. Campbell (North Central) 18. Floyd (East)

Top 25 Most Unchurched KY Counties (Based upon % of Non-Attenders) 1. Elliot (East) 10. Campbell (North Central) 19. Rowan (East) 2. Lewis (East) 11. Spencer (Central) 20. Pike (East) 3. Edmonson (South Central) 12. Johnson (East) 21. Menifee (East) 4. McCreary (South) 13. Nicholas (East) 22. Morgan (East) 5. Kenton (North Central) 14. Letcher (East) 23. Jackson (South) 6. Carter (East) 15. Breathitt (East) 24. Gallatin (North Central) 7. Martin (East) 16. Bracken (East) 25. Bullitt (Central) 8. Lawrence (East) 17. Marion (Central) 9. Robertson (East) 18. Knott (East)

Top 25 Most Unchurched KY Counties (Based upon # of Non-Attenders) 1. Jefferson (Central) 10. Bullitt (Central) 19. Franklin (Central) 2. Fayette (North Central) 11. Christian (West) 20. Nelson (Central) 3. Kenton (North Central) 12. Oldham (Central) 21. Boyd (East) 4. Boone (North Central) 13. Pike (East) 22. Shelby (Central) 5. Warren (South Central) 14. Pulaski (South) 23. Henderson (West) 6. Hardin (Central) 15. Laurel (South) 24. Hopkins (West) 7. Campbell (North Central) 16. McCracken (West) 25. Barren (South Central) 8. Daviess (South Central) 17. Jessamine (North Central) 9. Madison (North Central) 18. Scott (North Central)

# of Counties in Top 25 by KBC Region Most Lost Counties (%) Most Lost Counties (Population) Most Unchurched Counties (%) Most Unchurched Counties (Pop) West 2 4 South Central 1 3 Central 7 North Central South East 19 16 Total 25

Priority Counties for Church Planting (# of times on Top 25 listed in {}) Bullitt (Central) – {4} Pike (East) – {4} Carter (East) – {3} Jessamine (North Central) – {3} Kenton (North Central) – {3}

Summary of Findings: West Region Has the most KBC churches of any of the 6 regions. 0 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness. 2 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population. 0 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage. 4 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population. Received the lowest Church Planting Priority Index ranking of the 6 regions.

Summary of Findings: South Central Region Has the third most churches of any of the 6 KBC regions. 1 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness. 3 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population. 1 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage. 3 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population. Ranked #4 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

Summary of Findings: Central Region Has the second most churches of any of the 6 KBC regions. 1 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness. 7 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population. 3 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage. 7 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population. Ranked #3 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

Summary of Findings: North Central Region Has the worst KBC church to population ratio of the 6 regions. 1 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness. 7 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population. 3 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage. 7 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population. Ranked #2 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

Summary of Findings: South Region Has the best KBC church to population ratio of the 6 regions. 3 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness. 2 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population. 2 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage. 2 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population. Ranked #5 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

Summary of Findings: East Region Has the fewest number of churches of any KBC region (159 lower than second fewest {North Central region}). 19 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon percentage of lostness. 4 out of the Top 25 most lost counties based upon population. 16 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon percentage. 2 out of the Top 25 most unchurched counties based upon population. Ranked #1 out of the 6 KBC regions on the Church Planting Priority Index.

Summary of Findings The East, Central, and North Central regions have a significantly greater number of lost and unchurched compared to the West, South, and South Central regions. The East, Central, and North Central regions also have a much worse KBC church to population ratio compared to the West, South, and South Central regions. While new churches are needed everywhere, the East, Central, and North Central regions have a much greater need for church planting than the West, South, and South Central regions, based upon available data.