EVSC 1300 Global Warming.

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Michael B. McElroy ACS August 23rd, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

EVSC 1300 Global Warming

Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide Record Page: 8 FIGURE 1.6 (a) The solid blue line shows the average yearly measurements of CO2 in parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, from 1958 to 2013. The jagged dark line illustrates how higher readings occur in winter where plants die and release CO2 to the atmosphere, and how lower readings occur in summer when more abundant vegetation absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere. Pre-industrial background = 280 ppm Current level = 408 ppm

Clouds and Radiation * * * * * * * * * * Ice clouds are net warmers. Absorption of infrared is greater than solar reflection.

Clouds and Radiation Water clouds are net coolers. Absorption of infrared is less than solar reflection.

Greenhouse Gas Trends Since 1979 Montreal Protocol (NOAA: Earth System Research Laboratory)

IPCC ESTIMATES OF RADIATIVE FORCING (RF)

Radiative Forcing (Definition) *change in net radiation arising from some external factor (e.g., greenhouse gases, aerosols, etc.) positive  more energy in system  warmer negative  less energy in system  cooler *relative to 1750 (pre-industrial baseline) *global annual average values

Global Annual Temperature Anomalies (°C) ? (Annual values are departures from the 20th century mean temperature)

Global Carbon Emission Estimates Source: CDIAC

Global Annual Temperature Anomalies

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES: 1970–2013 (Trenberth et al., 2014)

GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION 1611-2009

Change in Solar “Constant” over Time

Global Solar Radiation Global Temperature

Reconstructed Solar Output vs. Global Temperatures –0.6 –0.4 –0.2 0.0 0.2 1364 1366 1368 1370 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Temperature Departure (°C) Solar Output (W/sq. m) Reconstructed Solar Output Reconstructed Temperature History Thermometer Temperature History Reconstructed Solar Output vs. Global Temperatures

GLOBAL SATELLITE TEMPERATURES 1979–2017 El Niño Volcano

COMPARISON OF SURFACE AND SATELLITE TEMPERATURES 1979–2016 Surface vs. Satellite Temperatures (Climate4you.com)

DJF Temperature Change from 1880-1889 mean by 2040-2049 predicted by the Max-Plank Institute model

Observed December-February Temperature Change (1988-2017 minus 1951-1980) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Observed June-August Temperature Change (1988-2017 minus 1951-1980) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Temperature Change by Latitude (Note different y-axis scales) S.Pole N.Pole (Note different y-axis scales) S.Pole N.Pole

Global Precipitation over Continents Wetter Drier

Sea-Level Components (1961–2003) (1993–2003) (IPCC FAR)

Quick Summary—Global Warming: Change in one component of radiation balance can impact all other components The 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 levels since pre- industrial times is caused by fossil fuel use Surface temperatures have increased 0.5°C–1.0°C over the past century in an irregular pattern of warming/cooling Warming is strongest in the high latitudes and in winter, although warming is evident across most of the planet Natural temperature fluctuations are large and related to factors like El Niño (warming) and volcanoes (cooling)