Nearby NY and “A” Index. Nearby NY and “A” Index.

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Presentation transcript:

Nearby NY and “A” Index

US Stocks/Use vs NY Futures

Cotton Prices

International Area

Int’l Cotton Area

Int’l Cotton Area 04-06 09/10 10/11 11/12 Million Acres International 73.33 66.97 71.62 76.03 China 14.17 13.10 12.60 13.24 India 22.09 25.35 27.18 28.10 S. Hemisphere 4.11 3.65 5.80 5.56 Other Int’l 32.96 24.87 26.03 29.12

Int’l Cotton Production

Int’l Cotton Production Million Bales 04-06 09/10 10/11 11/12 International 97.0 89.4 96.9 104.1 China 31.4 32.0 30.0 32.3 India 20.0 23.2 26.0 27.2 S. Hemisphere 9.0 8.2 13.3 13.4 Other Int’l 36.7 25.9 27.7 31.2

International Mill Use & trade

World Real GDP Growth International Monetary Fund, January 2011

Share of World GDP International Monetary Fund, January 2011

Fiber Prices

Fiber and Yarn Prices

Int’l Mill Use

Int’l Mill Use 04-06 09/10 10/11 11/12 Million Bales International 118.8 115.1 113.2 117.3 China 50.5 50.0 47.6 48.8 India 18.4 19.7 21.6 22.6 Pakistan 12.0 10.9 10.2 Other Int’l 38.0 34.5 33.9 34.9

Cotton Imports All Others China

Int’l Cotton Exports

US Cotton Exports

US Mill Use

Upland Cotton EAAP Authorized in the ‘08 Farm Bill Funded new textile machinery, new buildings and structural improvements to existing buildings Added jobs, reduced costs, increased ability to be more competitive against foreign competition Future funding is expected to continue the positive effect on textile employment and efficiency

US Cotton Mill Use 3.8 3.7

US cotton production

December Cotton Futures

December Corn Futures

November Soybean Futures

NCC PLANTING INTENTIONS SURVEY FOR ALL FARMS UNDER YOUR MANAGEMENT Acres of: 2010 (Actual) 2011 (Intended) Expected Price* Upland cotton (c/lb.) ELS cotton Corn ($/bu.) Wheat Soybeans Other crops Total crop acres *Includes marketing loan gain. To respond online, please go to www.cotton.org/survey/11planting WTX

NCC PLANTING INTENTIONS SURVEY FOR ALL FARMS UNDER YOUR MANAGEMENT Acres of: 2010 (Actual) 2011 (Intended) Expected Price* Upland cotton 10,769 (c/lb.) ELS cotton 204 Corn ($/bu.) Wheat Soybeans Other crops Total crop acres *Includes marketing loan gain. To respond online, please go to www.cotton.org/survey/11planting U.S.

NCC PLANTING INTENTIONS SURVEY FOR ALL FARMS UNDER YOUR MANAGEMENT Acres of: 2010 (Actual) 2011 (Intended) Expected Price* Upland cotton 10,769 12,263 (c/lb.) ELS cotton 204 251 Corn ($/bu.) Wheat Soybeans Other crops Total crop acres *Includes marketing loan gain. To respond online, please go to www.cotton.org/survey/11planting U.S.

2011 Southeast Acreage Thousand Acres 2010 Actual 2011 Intended % Change Alabama 340 388 14.0 Florida 92 109 18.3 Georgia 1,330 1,410 6.0 North Carolina 550 694 26.1 South Carolina 202 225 11.2 Virginia 83 105 26.9 Southeast 2,597 2,930 12.8 Total may not add due to rounding.

2011 Mid-South Acreage Thousand Acres 2010 Actual 2011 Intended % Change Arkansas 545 589 8.0 Louisiana 255 278 8.9 Mississippi 420 524 24.8 Missouri 310 348 12.4 Tennessee 390 544 39.5 Mid-South 1,920 2,283 18.9 Total may not add due to rounding.

2011 Southwest Acreage Thousand Acres 2010 Actual 2011 Intended % Change Kansas 51 69 34.6 Oklahoma 285 326 14.4 Texas 5,550 6,190 11.5 Southwest 5,886 6,585 11.9 Total may not add due to rounding.

2011 West Acreage Thousand Acres 2010 Actual 2011 Intended % Change Arizona 195 226 15.8 California 124 172 38.8 New Mexico 47 67 42.5 West 366 465 27.0 Total may not add due to rounding.

2011 ELS Acreage Thousand Acres 2010 Actual 2011 Intended % Change Arizona 3 4 47.2 California 182 225 23.6 New Mexico 28.2 Texas 17 19 13.7 West 204 251 23.1 Total may not add due to rounding.

2011 US Planting Intentions Thousand Acres 2010 Actual 2011 Intended % Change Southeast 2,597 2,930 12.8 Mid-South 1,920 2,283 18.9 Southwest 5,886 6,585 11.9 West 366 465 27.0 ALL UPLAND 10,769 12,263 13.9 ALL ELS 204 251 23.1 ALL COTTON 10,973 12,514 14.0 Total may not add due to rounding.

Indexed Futures Prices Relative to December 15, 2010 Planting Decisions Finalized Survey Period

US Cotton Production

US Cottonseed Production

US Balance Sheet 09/10 10/11 11/12 Change Production 12.2 18.3 19.2 0.9 Mill Use 3.5 3.7 3.8 0.1 Exports 12.0 15.3 15.6 0.3 Stocks 2.9 2.3 2.1 -0.2

World Balance Sheet 09/10 10/11 11/12 Change Production 101.5 115.3 123.2 7.9 Mill Use 118.5 116.9 121.1 4.2 Trade 35.6 38.4 42.2 3.8 Stocks 43.8 42.3 44.6 2.3

World Stocks-to-Use