INVESTING PROFITABLY IN TODAY’S MARKET

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Presentation transcript:

INVESTING PROFITABLY IN TODAY’S MARKET Long Island Stock Traders Monthly Meetup Tuesday, January 15, 2013 Marc Chaikin Chaikin Analytics

A FLOOD OF INFORMATION

VOLATILITY IS declining

THE PATH TO PROFITS Starts with a plan Follows the plan with discipline Plan reflects how the market works

FUNDAMENTALS DRIVE THE MARKET Earnings drive stock trends Valuations matter Industry group trends are powerful

Emotions Drive the Market to Extremes ______________________________________ Price movements amplified by fear and greed Big Players Crowd into the same stocks Technical indicators measure these extremes Profits = Fundamentals + Technicals

YOUR PORTFOLIO IS A GARDEN Find 5 -10 stocks you know well Weed out losers, let winners thrive Minimize your mistakes

FIND THE WINNERS... Bullish Chaikin Power Gauge rating Strong industry group Leader not laggard Analysts becoming more positive Strong Chaikin Money Flow

Triple Filtered Relative Strength Industry Group stronger than the market Stock stronger than the market Stock stronger than its Industry Group

The Result is a Strong and Profitable Brew

CHAIKIN POWER GAUGE

A ‘QUANTAMENTAL’ RATING Financial Metrics Earnings Performance Price/Volume Activity Expert Opinions

Chaikin Power Gauge Rating Clear summary of a stock’s potential - with a record of success Financial Metrics LT Debt to Equity Ratio Price to Book Value Return on Equity Price to Sales Ratio Business Value Earnings Performance Earnings Surprise Earnings Growth Earnings Trend Earnings Consistency Projected P/E Ratio Price/Volume Activity Price Trend Price Trend Rate of Change Chaikin Money Flow Relative Strength vs. Market Volume Trend Expert Opinions Earnings Estimate Revisions Short Interest Insider Activity Analyst Opinions Relative Strength vs. Industry © 2012 Chaikin Stock Research. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.

REAL WORLD EXAMPLES

Strong Group: Major Banks Weak Group: Utility – Gas Distributors

Bank of America

Northwest Natural Gas

Strongest Industry Groups based on Chaikin Power Gauge Ratings of Component Stocks

Weakest Industry Groups based on Chaikin Power Gauge Ratings

Timing the Long Trade Power Gauge Rating Bullish Price Trend Up Relative Performance Strong Chaikin Money Flow Strong Price Oversold

Three Bullish Picks From Bob Doll in Barron’s This Week Comcast (CMCSA) Accenture (ACN) Eli Lilly (LLY)

Comcast Viewed Three Ways

Chaikin Power Gauge Rating and Signals Comcast Chaikin Power Gauge Rating and Signals

Accenture

Eli Lilly

Building Blocks For Technical Analysis ________________________________ Price Trend Volatility Bands Chaikin Money Flow Overbought/Oversold Indicator Relative Performance

EBAY – Take The Offer

TSO - UPSIDE SURPRISE

NKE – Change in Rating

YHOO – It All Comes Together

Citigroup – Banks Lead the Market

... DROP THE LOSERS!

Beware Bearish Power Gauge Stocks in Earnings Season Under Armour Dollar General Family Dollar Stores Priceline Lorillard

Under Armour – Overexposed

Dollar General – Discounted Price

Family Dollar Stores – Marked Down

Lorillard – Group in Flames

Priceline Puts - 20x in one day

Avoid the landmines!

CUT YOUR LOSSES LET YOUR PROFITS RUN “Amateurs go broke taking large losses; professionals go broke taking small profits.” – William Eckhardt

Chaikin Power Suite

Chaikin Analytics for iPad

Chaikin Analytics 525 S. 4th Street Suite 240 Philadelphia, PA 19147 267.275.2322 www.chaikinpowertools.com © 2012 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.