Liana Prudencio and Sarah E. Null Calling All Collaborators: Robust Decision-Making and Climate Adaptation Liana Prudencio and Sarah E. Null Aquatic Habitat, Climate, and Water Analysis (ACWA) Lab Department of Watershed Sciences Utah State University 83582401

Gray Stormwater Infrastructure and Urbanization stream less infiltration to groundwater increased surface runoff contaminants from roads, parking lots, roofs Sets up the research problem

Green Stormwater Infrastructure stream Green Roofs National Geographic Rain Barrels and Gardens Utah Rivers Council Permeable Pavement Urips Alternative stormwater management practices (shown in green below) recover ecosystem services, such as infiltration to replenish groundwater, vegetation to filter runoff, and storage capacity to reduce runoff magnitude. Vegetated Infiltration Areas Morton-Roberts Penn State Subsurface Storage and Infiltration Systems Landscape East & West Torrent Resources

less reliability on snowpack and changes in runoff timing Climate Change More than 1/6th of the world’s population lives in snow-dominated regions and depend on snowpack for water storage and supply (Barnett et al. 2005). less reliability on snowpack and changes in runoff timing stream Sets up the research problem

EPA-STAR Project 83582401 team objective: to assess the potential of green infrastructure for managed aquifer recharge and storage to adapt to less reliability on snowpack as storage Green Infrastructure Data Collection and Modeling Vadose Zone and Groundwater Modeling Ecosystem Services and Surface Water Modeling Institutional/Community/ Stakeholder Involvement Quality Assurance

EPA-STAR Project Red Butte Creek surface water model Jordan River surface water model rainfall-runoff model green infrastructure model groundwater models

??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? Uncertainty surface water models current conditions future resource demands ??? green infrastructure model surface water models groundwater models climate change conditions future sociopolitical landscape ??? ??? ecological thresholds ??? future land use ??? future population ??? future economic conditions ???

Robust Decision-Making (RDM) What policies and strategies meet our management goals under uncertainty? 1. Identify potential policy and management strategies, uncertainties, risks, and goals. 4. Compare performance of potential strategies, then either decide on which to implement or re-evaluate potential strategies and goals. 2. Model and estimate performance of potential strategies across uncertainties. What strategies are robust and meet our goals in various scenarios? 3. Identify conditions under which potential strategies are vulnerable.

RDM in California’s State Water Plan Iterative Steps of RDM Volume 4 Reference Guide – Technical Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2013

RDM in California’s State Water Plan Step 1: Decision Structuring XLRM Matrix Summarizing Scope of RDM Analysis XLRM X: Uncertainties L: Management Strategies/Levers R: Relationships or System Model M: Goals and Metrics Volume 4 Reference Guide – Technical Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2013 Step 2: Simulation of Many Futures 22 climate sequences x 4 growth scenarios = 88 futures 22 climate sequences x 4 growth scenarios x 5 strategies = 440 simulations

RDM in California’s State Water Plan Step 3: Vulnerability Analysis Percent of Vulnerable Futures for Each Response Package for the Sacramento River Hydrologic Region Volume 4 Reference Guide – Technical Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2013

RDM in California’s State Water Plan Step 4: Tradeoff Analysis Trade-Off Curves of % of Vulnerable Futures VS. Cost for Different Metrics Across Response Packages for the Sacramento River Hydrologic Region Volume 4 Reference Guide – Technical Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2013

RDM for Stormwater Management: Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley 1. Identify potential GSI strategies, uncertainties, risks, and goals. 4. Compare performance of potential GSI strategies, then either decide on which to implement or re-evaluate strategies and goals. 2. Model and estimate performance of potential GSI strategies across uncertainties. 3. Identify conditions under which potential GSI strategies are vulnerable.

RDM for Stormwater Management: Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley Step 1: Decision Structuring a) What are the uncertain factors? Climate Change: How will temperature and precipitation change? Ecological Thresholds: Under what conditions are ecosystems and environmental benefits altered?

RDM for Stormwater Management: Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley Step 1: Decision Structuring b) What are the potential GSI strategies?

RDM for Stormwater Management: Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley Red Butte Creek surface water model Jordan River surface water model rainfall-runoff model green infrastructure model groundwater models Step 1: Decision Structuring c) What are the relationships in the system? What are the models simulating?

RDM for Stormwater Management: Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley Step 1: Decision Structuring d) What are the goals, and how do we measure them? Goals Metrics Variables increased summer baseflow duration of low flow conditions (days), acre-feet in groundwater flow flood attenuation flood magnitude (cms), duration (minutes), and rate of change (hydrograph slope) water purification pollutant concentration (mg/L) and conductivity (S/m) specific conductance, turbidity, nutrients (N and P), dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, TSS climate regulation maximum weekly average temperature (°C) and maximum daily temperature (°C) stream temperature aquatic biodiversity habitat suitability curves and conditions for Bonneville Cutthroat Trout and June Sucker stream temperature, DO, TSS, etc.

Relationships or System Models (R) RDM for Stormwater Management: Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley Step 1: Decision Structuring Uncertainties (X) GSI Strategies (L) Climate Change Ecological Thresholds Bioswales “R” Tanks Vegetated Infiltration Basins Dry Wells Relationships or System Models (R) Goals and Metrics (M) Surface Water Models Groundwater and Vadose Zone Models Stormwater Quality Models Rainfall-Runoff Models Increased Summer Baseflow Flood Attenuation Water Purification Climate Regulation Aquatic Biodiversity

EPA-STAR Project Step 2: Simulation Modeling of Many Futures groundwater models green infrastructure model surface water models current conditions changes in precipitation changes in ecosystem goals/metrics changes in temperature

Step 4: Comparison of Strategies/Tradeoffs RDM for Stormwater Management: Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley Step 3: Vulnerability Analysis: % of Futures Vulnerable Step 4: Comparison of Strategies/Tradeoffs Increased Summer Baseflow Flood Attenuation Water Purification Climate Regulation Aquatic Biodiversity Bioswales __% “R” Tanks Vegetated Infiltration Basins Dry Wells % of futures vulnerable cost

Watershed Sciences, Utah State University Contact info: Liana Prudencio liana.prudencio@aggiemail.usu.edu Dr. Sarah Null sarah.null@usu.edu Watershed Sciences, Utah State University 83582401

Stormwater in Natural versus Urban Environments stream