Budget 2010: Some Perspectives on Resource Availability over the MTEF Len Verwey, Idasa.

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Presentation transcript:

Budget 2010: Some Perspectives on Resource Availability over the MTEF Len Verwey, Idasa

2009/2010: The Year of Divergence Budget 2009Budget 2010 Real GDP Growth 1.4%- 1.5% Gross Tax Revenue R 659 BillionR 590 Billion Total ExpenditureR 739 BillionR 749 Billion Deficit / Surplus- 4.2%- 7.2%

Expenditure and Tax Revenue: Recent Trends in Nominal Values

Tax Revenue and Expenditure in Real Terms

Real Tax Trends for 3 Main Taxes

How optimistic/pessimistic are these projections for tax revenue?

Trends in the Main Budget Balance

Debt Service Costs: Recent Trends and Projections

Debt Stock in a Longer-Term Context: Assessing Risk and Sustainability

Spending Trends: Very Small Nominal Increases

Spending Trends: Some Real Decreases (Especially for 2011/12)

Real Increases in Consolidated Expenditure over the MTEF (including the Contingency Reserve) From 2009/2010 to 2010/2011: 3.3% From 2010/2011 to 2011/2012:1.6% From 2011/2012 to 2012/2013:3.1%

Is crowding out of social spending likely over the MTEF?

What Can and Should be Done? Spending Moderation Value for Money Tax Compliance Social Capital and Allocative Efficiency No Bells and Whistles Tax Increases?

Thank You