Spatio-temporal information in society: modelling Gilberto Câmara Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/

What is a model? A model is a simplified representation of a phenomenon, process, actor, system, or any complex entity. The truth about reality is intangible. Everything science knows about reality is a model of reality.

Examples of models – atom Concept Indivisible entities over which matter is built Model Dalton, 1807  solid sphere Thomson, 1904  plum pudding Rutherford, 1911  Positive nucleus + negative electrosphere Bohr, 1913  Nucleus + electrons with different levels of energy Schrondinger, Pauli  Subatomic particles Dalton, 1807 Thomson, 1904 Rutherford, 1911 Bohr, 1913

Examples of models – Shape of the Earth Concept Place where we live. Environment. Model Flat  archaic belief Spherical Pythagoras (AD 570)  Suggested that Earth could be spherical Aristotle (AD 330)  First evidence: semi-circular shadow at moon Eratosthenes (AD 240)  First estimate of Earth’s circumference Mathematics Scotsman McLaurin (1742)  Flat Carl Jacobi (1834)  Elipsoidal Henri Poincaré (1885)  Periform Dynamic  Modern geodesy Dynamic geoid Flat Spheric Ellipsoid Periform

Earth – Our Environment

What is a Model? Deforestation in Amazonia in 2020? simplified representation of a process Model = entities + attributes + interactions + change rules graphics: INPE, Pesquisa FAPESP

Computational models Connect expertise from different fields Make the different conceptions explicit If (... ? ) then ... Desforestation?

Computational models Connect expertise from different fields Make the different conceptions explicit Territory (Geography) Money (Economy) Culture (Antropology) Modelling (GIScience)

A typical spatial model: What causes tropical deforestation? (Getty Images, 2008) (PRODES, 2008) source: Espindola, 2012

Source: Miller and Page 2005? Dynamic Models Time t Time t + 1 F(S) S World E(S) E(S) f(s) s Model Source: Miller and Page 2005?

Dynamic Models 1997 2007 ? S ? ? World Modell f(s)

Hanna Fry, CASA, UCL

Tobler’s first law in a connected world? “People still live in places. The space of places is a consequence of human history. However, function and power in our societies are organized in the space of flows. Flows of capital, flows of information, flows of technology, flows of organizational interactions, flows of images, sounds and symbols”. (Castells, “The Rise of Network Society”).

Dynamic Spatial Models f (It) f (It+1) f (It+2) f ( It+n ) F F . . "A dynamical spatial model is a computational representation of a real-world process where a location on the earth’s surface changes in response to variations on external and internal dynamics" (Peter Burrough)

Dynamic Spatial Models graphics: Cláudia Almeida tnow + 10 Calibration Validation Projection Tnow - 20 Tnow – 10 Tnow

Which is the better model?

Question #1 for human-environment models What ontological kinds (data types) are required for human-environment models? Fields Cells (objects)

Concepts for spatial dynamical models Events and processes Resilience

Concepts for spatial dynamical models vulnerability degradation

Concepts for spatial dynamical models biodiversity sustainability and much more… Human-environmental models need to describe complex concepts (and store their attributes in a database)

Question #2 for human-environment models What models are needed to describe human actions?

Clocks, clouds or ants? Clouds: statistical distributions Clocks: deterministic equations Ants: emerging behaviour

Statistics: Humans as clouds y=a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + ... +aixi +E Establishes statistical relationship with variables that are related to the phenomena under study Basic hypothesis: stationary processes Example: CLUE Model (University of Wageningen) Fonte: Verburg et al, Env. Man., Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 391–405

Driving factors of change (deforestation) source: Aguiar (2006)

Statistics: Humans as clouds source: Aguiar (2006) Statistical analysis of deforestation

Where does this image come from?

Where does this image come from? Map of the web (Barabasi) (could be brain connections)

Information flows in Nature Ant colonies live in a chemical world

Conections and flows are universal Yeast proteins (Barabasi and Boneabau, SciAm, 2003) Scientists in Silicon Valley (Fleming and Marx, Calif Mngt Rew, 2006)

Information flows in the brain Neurons transmit electrical information, which generate conscience and emotions

Information flows generate cooperation Foto: National Cancer Institute, EUA http://visualsonline.cancer.gov/ White cells attact a cancer cell (cooperative activity)

Information flows in planet Earth Mass and energy transfer between points in the planet

From galaxies…. Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO) Spiral galaxy in Hercules ~10^5 LY diameter balance between gravity and angular momentum Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

…to cyclones ~ 100 km Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO) Cyclone ~100km balance between buoyancy and coriolis Cyclone Douglas off Florida coast last year Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

Gene expression and cell interaction Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO) Amoeba Ribosome Root Tip From the molecular level, where the genome codes for linear sequences of amino acids which then fold up autonomously into the required complex 3D shape, to organisation of prokaryotes, eukaryotes and the assembly of cells into organisms is now assumewd to involve a substantial measure of Self organisation as the amount of information required to determine all these processes is not encoded explicitly into the genome. One surprise of genome sequencing is how little info there is there. E Coli

The processing of information by the brain Processing of information by animal Brains-Memory, Consciousness Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

Animal societies and the emergence of culture Self organisation between animals-societies-much of the behaviour of ’simple’ societies like social insects can be modelled using simple rules governing individual behaviour. Human society is more complex, it seems Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

Results of human society such as economies This is a Bangkok street market Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

Complex adaptative systems How come that an ecosystem with all its diverse species functions and exhibits patterns of regularity? How come that a city with many inhabitants functions and exhibits patterns of regularity?

What are complex adaptive systems? Systems composed of many interacting parts that evolve and adapt over time. Organized behavior emerges from the simultaneous interactions of parts without any global plan.

What are complex adaptive systems?

Universal Computing Computing studies information flows in natural systems... ...and how to represent and work with information flows in artificial systems 42