Russia’s Presidential Elections, 2018 Vladimir Gel’man (European University at St.Petersburg / University of Helsinki) Pennsylvania State University, September 27, 2017

Russia's Presidential Elections, 2018 March 18, 2018 – Russia will held seventh presidential elections in its history (first time, in 1991); Most observers expect that Vladimir Putin will be reelected for his fourth term in office (since 2000, except for 2008-12); Do these elections matter? What we might expect for the future?

Russia's Presidential Elections, 2018

Russia's Presidential Elections, 2018 Election rules: Candidates should be nominated either by parliamentary parties or be registered as independent (collection of 2 million verified signatures of voters in 2/3 of Russia’s regions during three weeks); Run-off election system (required majority of votes in the first round or plurality of votes in the second); Incumbents could run for re-election (limits for two consecutive terms in office); Putin’s approval rate in September 2017 – 83% (Levada Center)

Russia's Presidential Elections, 2018 Popularity of prospective presidential candidates (August 2017, Levada-Center): Putin – 60% Zyuganov (Communist Party leader, 73 y.o.) – 3% Zhirinovsky (Liberal Democratic Party leader, 71 y.o.) – 2% Navalny (opposition anti-corruption activist and blogger) – 2% Shoigu (minister of defense) – 1% Yavlinsky (Yabloko party leader) – 1% Don’t know – 30% …. and 18% are ready to vote for a fictional candidate supposedly supported by Putin (!)

Russia's Presidential Elections, 2018 Should one expect any troubles for an incumbent? The logic of electoral authoritarianism – elections matters, but there is no viable alternatives to the status quo; Election results should leave no hopes for the oppositions of any sorts; Mechanisms: State control over nomination and campaign; Persuasion through media, sub-national governments, working place mobilization; … and last but not least election fraud so what?

Russia’s Presidential Elections, 2018

Russia's Presidential Elections, 2018 Alexey Navalny (b.1976) – a person from the younger generation, appeal to the youth; In 2013, he got more than 27% of votes in Moscow mayoral elections; Gathered more than 500000 signatures during pre-campaign online; A series of rallies and meetings across Russia’s provinces In 2013 accused in economic crime (probation), legally ineligible for balloting, the court verdict is overturned by ECHR, but… The Kremlin intended not to let him run…

Russia's Presidential Elections, 2018 If not Navalny, then what? Dilemma of non-competitive elections: either predictability with low turnout (demobilization strategy) or high turnout at any costs with risks of post-election protests (risks of counter-mobilization); “70%/70% strategy” – rejected as a risky game; Fake candidates as false targets?

Moscow, December 2011 Moscow post-election protests in December 2011 – any chance to repeat? … there are various predictions

Russia's Presidential Elections, 2018 If Putin will be elected in March 2018, then there will be his second consecutive term in office (again!) “Will Putin’s system survive until 2042?” Will Putin resign during his forth term in office and open the path for a designated successor (similarly to Yeltsin in 1999)? … poor prognostic capacity of scholars elsewhere, including Russia

Russia's Presidential Elections, 2018 Thanks for your questions and comments! (vgelman@eu.spb.ru)