Improving the Land Surface Component of the CFS Reanalysis

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Presentation transcript:

Improving the Land Surface Component of the CFS Reanalysis Michael Ek1, Kingtse Mo2, Jesse Meng3, Jiarui Dong3, Roshan Shresha3, Rongqian Yang3, Youlong Xia3 1NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Environmental Modelling Center (EMC) College Park, Maryland, USA 2NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Prediction Center (CMC) 3NCEP/EMC and I.M. Systems Group (IMSG) …and a large number of collaborators!

Current Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) at NCEP Operational in CFSv2 at NCEP 01 April 2011 Noah surface model runs in semi-coupled mode with Climate Data Assimilation System version (CDASv2); daily update provides initial land states to operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Forcing: CDASv2 atmospheric output, & “blended” precipitation, snow. Blended Precipitation: CPC satellite (heaviest weight in tropics); CPC gauge (heaviest mid-latitudes); model CDASv2 (high latitude). Snow: IMS cover & AFWA depth, cycled if within 0.5-2.0x “envelope”. 30+ year global land-surface climatology. Research/partners supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office, Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program. Precipitation Snow CMAP Surface gauge GDAS IMS cover AFWA depth Jesse Meng, NCEP/EMC

LDAS Upgrade: GLDASv2 with New Precipitation Forcing Precipitation Data in current operation: CMAP, 5-day data latency. Unified global gauge analysis, 1-day data latency. New Precipitation Data: CPC Gauge-satellite blended analysis of daily global precipitation. 0.25o lat/lon over the global land. 1979-present. Blending information from different sources: CPC daily gauge analysis. GPCC monthly gauge data. OLR-based precipitation estimates. CMORPH-based precipitation estimates. 1-day data latency. Preliminary Results: Improved soil moisture spin-up & anomalies. Courtesy of Pingping Xie, NCEP/CPC Southwest US Northern Plains Southeast US Jesse Meng, NCEP/EMC

GLDAS Global Drought Monitor July 2012 Soil Moisture Anomaly from NCEP GLDASv2 Uganda flooding US drought Russian drought 2002-2007, The Australian Millennium Drought from NCEP GLDASv2 Jesse Meng, NCEP/EMC

Land Data Sets Used in NCEP Modeling Systems Vegetation Type (1-km, IGBP-MODIS) Soil Type (1-km, STATSGO-FAO) Max.-Snow Albedo (5-km MODIS) July Jan summer winter Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) (monthly, 1/8-deg, NESDIS/AVHRR) Snow-Free Albedo (5-km MODIS) Climatologies: fixed/annual, monthly, weekly. Near real-time observations, e.g. GVF “becoming” a land state.

Satellite-based Land Data Assimilation in NCEP Modeling Systems Use NASA Land Information System (LIS) to serve as a unified Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) for testing both GLDAS and NLDAS. LIS EnKF-based Land Data Assimilation tool used to assimilate: Snow cover area (SCA) from operational NESDIS Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), and AFWA snow depth (SNODEP) products. Build NCEP’s CFS-GLDAS by incorporating the NASA Land Information System (LIS) into NCEP’s GFS/CFS (left figure) Offline tests of the existing EnKF-based land data assimilation capabilities in LIS driven by the operational CFS. Coupled land data assimilation tests and evaluation against the operational system. CFSR GLDAS Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Jiarui Dong (NCEP/EMC) Christa Peters-Lidard, Sujay Kumar (NASA/GSFC) NASA (LIS) Jiarui Dong, NCEP/EMC

Model Improvement: Hydrology, River-Routing Atmospheric Forcing Ensemble mean daily streamflow anomaly (NLDAS) Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, 20 August – 17 September 2011 Surface flow Saturated subsurface flow Superstorm Sandy, 29 October – 04 November 2012 Colorado Front Range Flooding, September 2013 Groundwater Close Coordination with National Water Center Youlong Xia and Roshan Shresha, NCEP/EMC