Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, ykagan@ucla.edu, http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan.html NEGATIVE.

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Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, ykagan@ucla.edu, http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan.html NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKE NUMBERS AND ITS USE FOR FORECAST TESTING http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/CISM_nbd.ppt

PDE catalog 1969-2014: values of NBD parameters for tectonic zones (Kagan et al. 2010)

ETAS simulation problems: 1. Run-away simulation for large mainshocks. Mmax for subduction zones is in excess of 9.0. If we want to reproduce a catalog with the threshold 1.5, certain sequences may have billions of aftershocks. 2. There is a problem of missing events near the threshold (Sornette & Werner, JGR, 2005; Marzocchi & Zhuang, GRL, 2011). Ogata & Katsura (JGR, 2014) suggest that to obtain a catalog with the threshold M4, to avoid bias M2 events need to be simulated.

END Thank you