Progress and prospects for the control of HIV and tuberculosis in South Africa: a dynamical modelling study Dr Brian G Williams, PhD, Somya Gupta, MA,

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Progress and prospects for the control of HIV and tuberculosis in South Africa: a dynamical modelling study Dr Brian G Williams, PhD, Somya Gupta, MA, Matthew Wollmers, MA, Reuben Granich, MD The Lancet Public Health Volume 2, Issue 5, Pages e223-e230 (May 2017) DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30066-X Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Estimates and projections under Constant Effort strategy (A) Prevalence of HIV and ART; denominator is adults aged 15 years or older; outer lines show 95% CIs. (B) Tuberculosis notification rates; denominator is the whole population. Data points show the points used to inform the model and the smooth lines show projections. ART=antiretroviral therapy. The Lancet Public Health 2017 2, e223-e230DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30066-X) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Estimates and projections under Expanded Treatment and Prevention strategy (A) Prevalence of HIV and ART; denominator is adults aged 15 years or older; outer lines show 95% CIs. (B) Tuberculosis notification rates; denominator is the whole population. Data points show the points used to inform the model and the smooth lines show projections. ART=antiretroviral therapy. The Lancet Public Health 2017 2, e223-e230DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30066-X) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Cumulative annual costs of various interventions Currency is 2015 US$. The cost of condom distribution is too small to show (appendix p 4). ART=antiretroviral therapy. The Lancet Public Health 2017 2, e223-e230DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30066-X) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Predicted effects and costs of treatment and prevention methods (A) New HIV infections, (B) AIDS-related deaths, and (C) total cumulative costs from 2016 to 2050, assuming that South Africa continues to roll out ART under Constant Effort or with ET plus the successive addition of VMMC, PrEP, and CD. ET=expanded treatment. VMMC=voluntary male circumcision. PrEP=Pre-exposure prophylaxis. CD=condom distribution. The Lancet Public Health 2017 2, e223-e230DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30066-X) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Terms and Conditions